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FX Analysis – USD flat ahead of NFP, EUR rallies on PMI beats, JPY lags

5 January 2024 By Lachlan Meakin

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Beats in US employment data ahead of today’s key Non-farm payroll figure saw the US Dollar Index eke out another gain after weakness in the APAC session reversed in the European session.

DXY up for the 5th straight day, having its longest winning streak since September and it’s best start to a year since 2005.

DXY hit a high of 102.53, still being held from further gains by the resistance at 102.57, a level that could be under pressure in the US session if the NFP report mirrors the beats in the ADP figure and unemployment claims released on Thursday.

The Euro was the G10 outperformer on Thursday with a spike in Eurozone yields after beats in French, German and Spanish PMI readings ahead of today’s Eurozone CPI figures. EURUSD continued its bounce off the psychological 1.09 support level, hitting a high of 1.0972 and keeping the upward trend channel intact that has been forming since October. With EZ CPI and NFP ahead today these will be key levels to keep an eye on.

JPY was the G10 underperformer with USDJPY rallying within a whisker of the big figure at 145, Yen also showing weakness against the EUR as both US and EZ yields rallied, increasing yield differentials against their Japanese counterparts.

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