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Market Analysis – Oil tumbles on Saudi price cut – USD, JPY, CHF

9 January 2024 By Lachlan Meakin

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USD ultimately ended lower on Monday with the US Dollar Index (DXY) first testing the resistance at 102.57 to the upside before reversing course to test the support at 102 to the downside. A risk on equity markets and some dovish developments. Data saw the NY Fed Survey show lower than expected inflation expectations. There was also a dovish call from Bank of America regarding the Feds holdings of US Treasuries along with what was seen as dovish comments from Fed members Bostic and Logan all weighing on the Greenback.

JPY bounced back against the USD after its weak start to 2024. USDJPY falling from highs of 144.92 to lows of 143.67 before finding some support. Possible positioning before todays Tokyo CPI figure and a fall in US yields seemingly the drivers.

CHF also saw decent gains against the USD and EUR after a hotter than expected December Swiss CPI print where the year-on-year inflation rate rose to 1.7% against an expected 1.5%

Crude Oil prices were a big mover with USOUSD dropping almost 3% as a result of sharp price cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia stoked demand fears. There was also a reported rise in OPEC output offsetting any supply worries generated by the ongoing tension in the Middle East.

USOUSD finding support at the 70 USD a barrel support level for now, the next level lower to watch will be the major support at 67 USD a barrel.

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