As Donald Trump prepares to take office on January 20th, the world watches with a mix of anticipation and apprehension with what may lie ahead, not only domestically but for the world as a whole.

The first 100 days of any presidency set the tone for an administration’s priorities and policies. Historically, this period has been viewed as crucial for the pace of implementing campaign promises and establishing a leadership style both internally within the party and the country.

What makes Trump’s first 100 days particularly significant is the potential for sweeping changes in domestic and foreign policy, with implications that extend beyond the United States. Analysts are already debating the impact these policies could have, not just on the American economy but also on global trade, geopolitics, and financial markets. From proposed tariffs to energy policy shifts, the decisions made in this critical period could ripple across multiple asset classes and redefine US international policy and relations.

This article aims to unpick what may (and may not) happen, in this crucial first 100 days.

 

Control of the House and Senate

The balance of power in Congress will play a crucial role in determining the success of Trump’s agenda and the “clean sweep”” of control is on the surface beneficial.

Republicans gained a three-seat majority in the U.S. Senate and maintained their control of the U.S. House of Representatives, in addition to gaining control of the White House.

The Republican-controlled House and Senate will make it easier for Trump to pass legislation aligned with his campaign promises, including tax cuts, deregulation, and immigration reforms. The unified government could streamline the legislative process and reduce gridlock.

Although this level of control also places greater accountability on the administration and its party, leaving little room to blame opposition for policy failures it seems unlikely at this stage that this may deter what appears to be a very resolute Trump. 

Although internal divisions within the Republican Party could theoretically create obstacles, r the somewhat controversial make up of his hand-picked and loyal cabinet, and a historical record of removing dissenters, may mean any implications of this may not be felt until the end of the Trump term,  and a clear path to essentially put in place much of what has been discussed seems likely.

 

Key Promises and Realities

Campaign promises often comprise a series of bold statements of intent designed to attract voters as their primary function. Trump’s pre-election rhetoric emphasised economic nationalism with a continuation of the “America First” narrative, with a focus on reshaping trade agreements, boosting American manufacturing, and rolling back regulations. While these promises undoubtedly energised his voter base, they also may face significant hurdles, including Congressional approval, legal challenges, and resistance from key stakeholders.

History has shown that many presidents struggle to deliver on their most ambitious promises during the early months of their tenure. For Trump, the challenge lies in navigating a polarized political landscape and reconciling his campaign’s populist agenda with the complexities of governance. Nevertheless, the policies he prioritises in his first 100 days could provide a glimpse into how much his long-term vision and strategic direction may be in reality and what may be a very different looking Republican party and country as a whole.

In this article we will focus on the impact of tariffs, including the potential on various asset classes, a brief outline of energy policy and reference to immigration, technology and infrastructure and environmental regulation. These appeared on the surface to be the ‘five main drivers of the election campaign and so are likely to be part of this first 100 days to varying degrees.

 

1. Tariffs and Trade Relations

One of the most contentious aspects of Trump’s campaign was his pledge to impose tariffs on imports, particularly from countries like China and Mexico and even threats towards the EU and near neighbours Canada . The scale and scope of these tariffs remain uncertain, but their implications may be far-reaching.

a) US Inflation: Tariffs on imported goods could lead to higher prices for US consumers as costs will be passed on from importer to customer. This, dependent on the extent of such, is generally accepted by most leading economists to potentially fuel an already stubborn but recovering inflation. Indeed, this has been recognised by the US central bank with reference made to this potential in this week’s last FOMC minutes. With a rate cut pause expected for 2025 to at least March and potential even May, there is no doubt that Trump’s impending presidency is playing into Federal Reserve thinking already, 

Whilst this approach is designed to impact and provide motivation and benefit domestic producers in the short term, there is a general acceptance that it may be high risk Another prolonged period of higher than desired inflation and so interest rates remaining relatively high are likely to have implications on US growth.

b) Global Trade Relations: Tariffs often invite retaliatory measures, risking a trade war that could destabilise global markets. Countries targeted by these policies may respond with their own restrictions, disrupting supply chains and reducing international trade volumes.

The financial markets are likely to react swiftly to any announcements regarding tariffs. Equities in export-dependent industries could see volatility, while currency markets may reflect shifts in trade dynamics. For example, a protectionist stance could strengthen the dollar in the short term but weaken it if trade tensions escalate.

c) Asset Class Implications

The policy changes introduced during Trump’s first 100 days are expected to influence multiple asset classes:

Equities: Certain sectors, such as defence, infrastructure, and energy, may benefit from increased government spending and deregulation in these areas. Conversely, industries reliant on global supply chains or international markets could face headwinds. Supply concerns due to higher prices created by the addition of tariffs may impact on manufacturing companies profit margins if they are to remain competitive. 

Bonds: Inflationary pressures from tariffs could push bond yields higher, as investors anticipate tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. This has already been evident over the last few weeks with the 10-year treasuries hit 9-month highs, 

Commodities: Energy markets, in particular, are likely to be impacted by changes in regulation and geopolitical tensions. Policies favouring fossil fuels could support oil and gas prices, while a diminished focus on renewables may shift investment patterns. Oil moved higher and is already testing 6-month highs this week. 

Despite USD strength (see below) We are seeing Gold holding high levels and testing 2700 this week, as investors look for an inflation hedge perhaps.

Currencies: The US dollar’s trajectory will depend on the interplay between trade policies, fiscal measures, and geopolitical developments. A stronger dollar could hurt emerging markets, while prolonged uncertainty might weaken investor confidence. The USD has surged to reach 26-month highs this week on the back of reduced 2025 rate cut expectations and subsequent high bond yields.

Cryptocurrencies: The volatility of traditional markets may drive increased interest in cryptocurrencies, as investors look for alternative assets to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks. Proposed regulatory changes cited during Trump’s presidential campaign have already been bullish for Bitcoin, seeing a surge since the election and testing the key $100K level.

 

2. Energy Policy and Geopolitics

Energy policy is another area where Trump’s administration is expected to make significant changes. His campaign emphasised support for fossil fuels (though obviously this may have been driven to some degree by the support for election funding) whilst expressing scepticism towards the concept of global warming and so renewable energy initiatives. These shifts could have profound implications for both domestic and international energy markets.

Domestic Impact: Deregulation of the energy sector may boost production and create jobs, particularly in traditional energy industries. However, this approach could also face opposition from environmental groups and states prioritizing green energy.

International Relations: Energy policy decisions will influence the geopolitical landscape. For instance, increased US oil production could reduce dependence on imports and alter relationships with major oil-exporting nations. Simultaneously, a rollback of climate commitments might strain alliances with countries advocating for global environmental initiatives.

The broader geopolitical implications of Trump’s policies extend beyond energy. His administration’s approach to issues such as NATO funding, relations with China and Russia, Middle East and Russia/Ukraine conflicts will shape the international order in the years to come.

 

3. Immigration and Deportation

Immigration was a cornerstone of Trump’s campaign, with promises to tighten border security and increase deportations of undocumented immigrants. These policies could have wide-ranging implications:

Economic Impact: Deportations could reduce the availability of the labour force in certain industries, potentially driving up costs and affecting productivity. Stricter immigration policies may also deter highly skilled workers from entering the US, impacting innovation and competitiveness.

Social and Political Implications: Increased deportations and stricter immigration enforcement could exacerbate social tensions and face legal challenges from advocacy groups. States with significant immigrant populations might resist federal mandates, leading to conflicts over jurisdiction and enforcement.

Internationally, Trump’s immigration policies could strain relationships with neighbouring countries, particularly Mexico, and affect trade and diplomatic cooperation.

 

4.Environmental Regulation 

One additional area likely to see significant activity is environmental regulation. Trump’s administration has signaled a desire to roll back many of the Obama-era environmental protections, citing their burden on businesses and economic growth.

Impact on Businesses: Loosening regulations could benefit industries such as mining, energy, and manufacturing, which have long pushed for reduced compliance costs.

Global Implications: However, these rollbacks could lead to criticism from international partners and advocacy groups, particularly as climate change remains a global priority. The US’s retreat from environmental leadership might influence global efforts to combat climate change.

 

5. Technological and Infrastructure Initiatives

There are questions on the importance of general infrastructure development as a priority despite the recognition to invest in transportation, energy grids, and logistics expansion, Such initiatives may be very specific and limited in the early days of the next Trump presidency.

Infrastructure Spending: A large-scale infrastructure bill could stimulate job creation and economic growth, though funding mechanisms (e.g., debt or taxation) will be a critical point of contention and contrary to much of the pre-election narrative. At this stage, such spending may be limited to later in the presidential term and big spending may be limited by initiatives that aim to bring down national debt levels.

Technology Integration: The AI story is not going away, and the US seems keen to be seen as leaders. As well as the import/export restrictions that may be imposed to make sure the US is ahead of the game are one of the stated goals of the Trump administration. It would not be surprising to see this area as part of early policy decisions that put the things in place to facilitate such technological advances not only now but going forward.

 

Summary

The first 100 days of Trump’s presidency will be a critical period, offering insights into his administration’s priorities and policy direction. While many campaign promises may prove difficult to implement, the initiatives that do materialize are likely to have profound implications for the US economy, financial markets, and global relations.

Investors, businesses, and policymakers must remain vigilant as the administration’s agenda unfolds. Key areas to monitor include trade relations, energy policies, immigration, and the broader geopolitical landscape. The potential for environmental regulation rollbacks and reduced infrastructure investments further adds layers of complexity. As uncertainty looms which is part of any :frost 100 days: scenario, understanding and preparing for, the potential risks and opportunities will be essential for navigating this new Trump era and its potentially far-reaching consequences.

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