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Forex
AUDUSD Reacts in Anticipation of Fed Chair Powell’s Talk
In yesterday’s session, the AUDUSD pair experienced a decline of nearly 1%, erasing the gains it had achieved over the past few days. This retracement arrives as the USD displays signs of renewed strength ahead of an upcoming speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Market participants are eagerly awaiting Powell's remarks for to see if he drops any hi...
August 25, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – USD rallies as markets turn risk-off ahead of Jackson Hole
USD was higher on Thursday, with The Dollar Index bouncing back strongly from Wednesdays decline, breaking through the resistance level of 103.60 to touch on the weekly highs at the big 104 level and hitting overbought levels on the daily RSI. Market risk-off, rising yields and a lower than forecast jobless claims figure giving the USD a boost as g...
August 25, 2023Read More >FX analysis – USD drops, Gold pops on soft data, falling yields
A raging US equity market fuelled by soft data, a drop in treasury yields and blowout earnings from NVDA (which saw its stock price hit an all-time high) saw risk-on trading through Wednesdays session. USD was choppy on Wednesday with an initial rally in DXY, which saw it briefly pierce the major resistance at 103.60, dramatically reversing cour...
August 24, 2023Read More >EURUSD tests near term support
After reaching the high of 1.1250, last tested in 2022, the EURUSD has been trading steadily lower and currently sits along the 1.0850 support level, formed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the previous swing low from early July. Looking at the technical aspects, the Ichimoku cloud indicates continued bearish pressures, with the top ...
August 23, 2023Read More >FX analysis – Euro lower ahead of PMIs – AUD, JPY and Gold stumble higher
USD was mostly firmer in Tuesday’s session as a mixed equity markets saw some slight risk-off conditions. Also support USD was rates markets shifting hawkishly (September meeting now pricing a 16% chance of a hike) ahead of Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Powell speaking on Friday. Fed member Barkin spoke but added little new, as he noted consumer spe...
August 23, 2023Read More >Asian Open FX Analysis – EUR, JPY, AUD, USD
Despite runaway US treasury yields which saw 10-year yields hit their highest level since 2007, the USD was flat in Monday’s session as it seems improved risk sentiment and a technically overbought Dollar Index (DXY)held it in check. DXY traded within a tight range with a low of 103.13 and a high of 103.50, where it was again rejected at the majo...
August 22, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – CNH strengthens on intervention talk – JPY breaks losing streak – Gold breaks key support
FX WRAP USD was choppy with the US Dollar Index ending the session flat in range bound trade. Unemployment claims dropped to 239k from 250k the prior week which was in line with consensus and having little effect on the USD, though Philly Fed Manufacturing figures did have a big beat coming in at +12.0 vs an expected -9.8, which was the highest ...
August 18, 2023Read More >Asian Open – Hawkish FOMC sees US stocks slide again, USD rally. JPY clobbered, AUD dips ahead of Jobs Data.
Asian indices are looking to open soft in Thursday’s session after major US Indices extended their sell-off in Wednesdays session on stronger than expected US data and a “hawkish” FOMC minutes where Fed officials saw ‘upside risks’ to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes. The Russell 2000 led losses (-1.28%) in the US on the cont...
August 17, 2023Read More >Aussie dollar has room to fall if the current support level fails.
The AUD/USD pair has had a tough month, falling relatively consistently since mid-July. This decline can be attributed to several factors, most notably the strengthening of the USD driven by the Federal Reserve's firm commitment to ‘higher for longer’ rates, aimed at taming inflation to meet target levels. Another contributing factor to the ...
August 14, 2023Read More >FX analysis – markets turn risk-off on weak Chinese data, Moody’s downgrade – USD bid, AUD sinks
Global markets were buffeted by a risk-off catalysts in Tuesdays session. Weak Chinese trade data, hawkish Fed-speak and a Moody’s downgrade of US regional banks saw stocks and yields tumble FX Markets USD was firmer Tuesday in a session that was firmly risk-off following the Chinese trade data and Moody’s downgrade. Later in the session ...
August 9, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – USD Catches a Bid, AUD outperforms ahead of RBA, JPY struggles
USD rallied modestly into month end with DXY pushing to the top of its recent range to again test the big 102 resistance level. The data highlight out of the US was the Chicago PMI figure which rose from the prior 41.5 to 42.8, but missing expectations of 43.3. in FedSpeak, Governor Goolsbee added little new from the FOMC statement last week st...
August 1, 2023Read More >FX analysis – USD up on rising yields, EUR down on dovish ECB, JPY surges ahead of BoJ
US equity markets snapped a record-breaking run of up sessions in Thursdays trading, with the Dow Jones looking set to close in the green for a 14th straight session (for the first time since the Dow’s inception), before seeing a sell-off on rising yields after a report that the BoJ is looking to tweak their YCC at their meeting today. FX Mark...
July 28, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – Treasury Yield surge Pushes USD Higher, AUD Outperforms on Hot Jobs Report
The US Dollar was firmer Thursday, continuing its bounce from extreme oversold levels, the DXY peaking at 100.97, just short of the major resistance at the big 101 figure. A much lower than expected initial jobless claims figure saw a jump in US treasury yields, propelling the USD higher with the DXY having it biggest up day since May. AUD w...
July 21, 2023Read More >Eyes on EURUSD going into European inflation data
After surging close to 4% since early July off the back of a weakening USD, the EURUSD pair has stabilised around $1.123. With very little volatility seen this week in the pair, eyes now turn to the euro, as the European inflation data is set to be released today. Analysts are predicting a continued downward trend in inflation, with a Year-on-Ye...
July 19, 2023Read More >US Dollar analysis ahead of pivotal CPI reading
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has closed its fourth consecutive day in the red, reaching levels last seen in early May 2023. Despite the recent decline, the DXY is coming into support around the 100 level, which has proven to be a resilient bounce point multiple times. However, each bounce appears to be getting smaller, which might indicate growing ...
July 12, 2023Read More >
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