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Forex
FX Market analysis – USD lower ahead of key CPI figure, GBP breaks out on strong jobs data
USD was marginally lower in Tuesdays session , trading in a tight range amid thin newsflow and market participants awaiting the key June CPI reading released later today. After breaking the psychological 102 level in Mondays session, DXY tested a re-entry into the range but found the previous support at 102 acting as stiff resistance, seeing DXY ...
July 12, 2023Read More >Potential Reversal on the NZDUSD?
The current market consensus is that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would likely keep interest rates at 5.50% at the upcoming meeting on 12th July. This is supported by the RBNZ’s monetary statement indicating that “monetary policy is having a sufficiently moderating effect on demand and inflation, and that we are yet to see the full ef...
July 11, 2023Read More >FX markets analysis – DXY, JPY, AUD, MXN, CNH, EUR
USD rose on Wednesday with participants returning from the long weekend pushing the Dollar Index above the key 103.00 level. FOMC minutes from the June meeting were released, with nothing new in Dot Plot projections but they did confirm that some policymakers were pushing for a 25bp hike rather than the hold we got, which lent support to the USD. A...
July 6, 2023Read More >Could the RBA Surprise with another rate hike?
In June, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets with a decision to hike rates by 25bps, taking the Australian cash rate to 4.10%. This was decided on the basis that further increases were required to provide greater confidence that inflation would return to the target range within a reasonable timeframe. This decision led to the AUDU...
July 3, 2023Read More >USDJPY enters the intervention “danger zone”
USDJPY briefly pushed above 145 in today’s session before a sharp pullback, with traders wary of recent jawboning from Japanese officials regarding the “one sided” trade in the Yen may be setting the Japanese MoF up for another round on FX intervention that we saw late in 2022. Some sharp moves in the Yen in the last day have had t...
June 30, 2023Read More >Aussie inflation cools with big miss in CPI print – AUDUSD dumps
Australian CPI figures today see a rapid cooling in Aussie inflation, coming in at 5.6% y/y against an expected 6.1% and a big drop from April’s 6.8% shock to the upside. This saw a rapid re-pricing of rate hike odds at the next RBA meeting on July 4th, with interbank futures signaling odds have dropped to 17% of a 25bp move, from 25% pre-CPI....
June 28, 2023Read More >GBPJPY Breaks Through to 2015 Levels
The GBJPY has continued to climb strongly to the upside, since the end of March 2023 and currently trades just below the 183.00 price level. This move higher is driven by a combination of the weakness of the Japanese Yen and renewed strength in the British Pound. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has begun to sound warning bells regarding potentially exce...
June 28, 2023Read More >FX wrap – GBP volatile on BoE surprise, JPY and CHF under pressure, USD follows yields up
USD was firmer on Thursday, largely due to a rally in treasury yields with the DXY tracking the 10 year yield higher to a peak of 102.470 after bouncing off the psychological 102 support level. US data was mixed with Unemployment claims and current account figures coming in worse than expected, but this was offset by a beat in Existing home sales. ...
June 23, 2023Read More >AUDUSD testing key support after RBA minutes
The RBA minutes of their June meeting where another surprise hike had most of the market off side were released today, and they were surprisingly dovish. The board made clear the decision between a hike and hold was finely balanced and seems to suggest further hikes may require a high bar for inflation readings to sway them. AUD reaction was swift ...
June 20, 2023Read More >Asia Morning FX – AUD and EUR surge, USD takes a hit post FOMC, BoJ ahead
USD tumbled in Thursday’s session in the wake of a dovish Powell presser (relative to statement/dot plots) saw the Dollar bears in charge. This, coupled with a hawkish ECB and mixed US data saw DXY fall from highs of 103.38 in the European morning to a low of 102.08, with the psychological 102 level the next obvious support. A hawkish ECB, where ...
June 16, 2023Read More >AUDUSD Soars on RBA Hike, EURUSD underperforms, CAD, GBP, JPY wrap
USD was firmer on Tuesday amid a light news calendar sparse in any key risk events. The US Dollar index again having a choppy session in a tight range with EURUSD weakness giving the Dollar a tailwind, also helping the greenback was ramped up US growth forecasts from Goldman Sachs and the World Bank hitting the wires. EUR was the G10 underpe...
June 7, 2023Read More >Could the Reserve Bank of Australia hike rates further?
The Australian interest rate is currently at 3.85% and the most recent consumer price index (CPI) released at 6.8% which indicates slightly higher than expected inflation growth (expectation was 6.4% with previous data at 6.3%). This puts more focus on the upcoming interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). While further rate ...
June 6, 2023Read More >Hot CPI fails to hold AUDUSD above key level
Australian CPI released today surprised to the upside coming in at 6.8% y/y , well above the consensus of 6.4% which itself was an increase on March’s figure of 6.3% Coming into the figure futures markets had priced in a measly 2.5% chance of a hike next week by the RBA, that changed dramatically with odds jumping to 18.8% for a 25bp hike ac...
May 31, 2023Read More >AUD analysis – waiting for a catalyst – range trading and mean reversion opportunities
The Aussie dollar has been fairly directionless since late February with it seemingly waiting for a catalyst to break it’s ranges and take the next leg up or down, data this week has failed to provide that. This opens up a couple of very good opportunities for traders, range trading the AUDUSD and mean reversion trades on the AUDNZD. Starting ...
May 18, 2023Read More >GBPUSD analysis – Is the Bank of England approaching peak rates?
The Bank of England (BoE) is due to release its interest rate decision today, with markets expecting a 12th consecutive hike to take interest rates to 4.50%. There has been increasing speculation that the BoE is reaching its terminal rates and could follow the lead of the US FOMC and the ECB in signaling a slowdown or pause on further rate hikes fo...
May 11, 2023Read More >
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