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Articles
FX Analysis – Yield spike on hot retail sales fails to lift USD, AUD outperforms, JPY , NZD.
USD traded in a tight range on Tuesday despite a big move higher in treasury yields after a beat in US retail sales figures, the headline rising 0.7% M/M vs 0.3% expected. DXY whipsawing within a contained range, hitting a high of 106.52 on the initial reaction to the retail sales figure, but quickly paring gains to hit a low of 106.02. Fed membe...
October 18, 2023Read More >Bitcoin provides traders with some volatility as price continues to trend north.
Bitcoin traders had some excitement in the session overnight, with some false news sending price rising over 7% in a few minutes. A tweet from a well-known crypto news website, Cointelegraph, stated that the SEC had approved a Bitcoin Spot ETF from BlackRock. Markets temporarily rallied off the back of this news, until it was quickly squashed...
October 17, 2023Read More >Charts to watch in the week ahead – AUDUSD, Gold, Oil
Global markets head into the new week with one eye on ongoing geopolitical pressures and one eye on US data and comments from Federal Reserve members as we come into the last week before the blackout period ahead of the November 2 FOMC meeting. Along with the geopolitical backdrop there is some key scheduled data this week the traders will be watch...
October 16, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – USD and yields surge on hot CPI, Gold down, AUD and NZD pummelled
USD surged higher on Thursday, with DXY having its second biggest daily gain since March, reclaiming the big figure at 106 and holding above its trendline support. Hotter than expected CPI readings with the M/M rising 0.4% (exp. 0.3%) and Y/Y coming in at 3.7% , above the 3.6% consensus got the Dollar rally going, but a dismal US 30yr auction later...
October 13, 2023Read More >Crude Oil analysis – WTI drops 3% to fills the gap on inventory build and dwindling supply disruption fears
WTI Crude oil got off to a flyer on Monday open as news broke of conflict in the Middle East saw a hefty risk premium being priced in fueled by fears of supply disruptions. It seems some of those fears have abated and along with a massive crude inventory build of almost 13mm barrels reported by API on Wednesday, a classic gap fill chart pattern has...
October 12, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – Yields and Dollar drop ahead of NFP , AUD and NZD outperform, JPY traders watching the 150 level
The USD sell off continued Thursday moving in lockstep with yields again ahead of today’s key non-farm payroll figure. Unemployment claims came inline and had a limited impact as it was yields driving action in the USD. DXY dropped to close at the lows of 106.32 from earlier highs of 106.86. So far this looks like a technical pullback from over...
October 6, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – Yields and USD rise again, AUD clobbered, JPY intervention?
The first week of the new quarter has so far been an interesting one, rampant US treasury yields breaking out to 16-year highs, a USD that just keeps going up and now it seems the Japanese Ministry of Finance is directly intervening in currency markets. USD rose to a high of 107.35 on the back of a surge in yields and a hawkish US JOLTS report w...
October 4, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – USD surges, USDJPY tests BoJ resolve at 150, AUD weak ahead of RBA
USD continued to run higher in Monday’s session with US yields surging to highs not seen since 2007. Beats in both US manufacturing and employment data along with some hawkish Fed Speak supporting yields. Monday’s risk tone started off upbeat after the US Congress came to an agreement over the weekend to narrowly avoided a government shutdown, ...
October 3, 2023Read More >FX Analysis – Rising US yields set FX tone as USD continues to grind higher
The ongoing sell-off in the US bond market has set the tone in FX and wider risk markets on Tuesday in an otherwise very slow news day. The USD has continued to grind higher against the higher yield backdrop with the US Dollar Index (DXY) adding to Mondays gains pushing above the 106 level, tracking yields higher. The Fed’s recent “highe...
September 26, 2023Read More >S&P 500 attempts to hold onto a key support level.
The S&P 500 index is currently teetering on the edge, desperately holding onto a crucial support level. This level has proven its resilience with two prior bounces, so traders are keeping a close eye on whether it can endure the pressure once more. After enduring four consecutive red days, there was a sigh of relief overnight as the market mana...
September 26, 2023Read More >USDJPY Analysis – Yen under pressure as the BOJ keeps rates and policy unchanged
In a bit of an anti-climax in an exciting week in Central Bank action for FX traders today saw the BoJ keep the status quo of an ultra-accommodative monetary policy as expected. But disappointing the Yen bulls was the BoJ offering no clear sign of a shift in its policy stance in the near term after some speculation a clearer hint to normalization o...
September 22, 2023Read More >EURUSD at key level going into US interest rate decision.
EURUSD is once again at an interesting technical level coming into key US data this week. After holding firm in a rising channel for most of 2023, price fell away in early September. This coincided with the price also falling below the 200 SMA which also acted as support multiple times in 2023 so far. After bouncing nicely on the first hori...
September 19, 2023Read More >ECB Preview – Euro steady ahead of rate decision – EURUSD analysis
EURUSD is heading into today’s knife-edge ECB rate decision lacking any real direction after Wednesdays CPI inspired choppy performance. Markets are split on today’s ECB rate decision with money markets pricing around a 65% chance of a 25bps rate hike, but a slight majority of economists polled by Bloomberg expecting a hold. Against this backdr...
September 14, 2023Read More >WTI Crude Oil hits 10-month high, but there are some technical challenges ahead.
The WTI Crude Oil market is in an interesting spot on the charts, hitting a 10-month high in Wednesday's session. This strong performance comes after repeatedly testing and holding the $66-67 support level, resulting in an impressive climb of over 30% since the beginning of July. Having broken through a significant resistance level around $8...
September 14, 2023Read More >USD and yields firmer ahead of US CPI
The USD has remained bid today heading into today’s pivotal US CPI where both the headline M/M and Y/Y figures are expected to show an increase over Julys readings. This is the last major inflation figure before next weeks FOMC meeting where the Fed is widely expected to hold rates (Fed Funds futures pricing in only a 7% chance of a 25bp hike). ...
September 13, 2023Read More >
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