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Articles

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Beware the Geopolitical trade: An evergreen trade risk to be remembered

The horrible events that we're currently seeing in the Middle East can sometimes create an unwanted attraction for traders. Chasing short, sharp swings in things like oil and other commodities of this ilk, might appear attractive for the here and now upside opportunity but be aware geopolitical trading always ends in bad outcomes. This is why we...

October 2, 2024
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RBA leaves cash rate unchanged but leaves the door open for future hikes if needed

After 10 hikes on the trot and what will no doubt be a relief for mortgage holders the RBA held the official cash rate at 3.60%. The rate decision was fully priced in by the futures markets , so no great surprise on the actual decision , it’s the accompanying statement where investors look for clues as to future RBA actions that will set the shor...

October 2, 2024
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When’s it our turn? A sustainable pivot

As we sit here and watch our overseas central bank counterparts move on interest rates. Our central bank gave us a new term, to explain why rate cuts are a long way off in their thinking. This term “sustainably” – that is  “sustainably back to target”, “sustainable path”, and a hundred other zingers that basically point out that the ...

September 30, 2024
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It Is Time – the other side of the mountain

In the words of one of the greatest supporting roles of all-time, this being Rafiki from the Lion King – It is time, (finally). We understand this is a bit tongue and cheek but the amount of false starts in 2024, we think it sums up what traders have been experiencing. So, we have reached the other side of the mountain. The cuts are coming. Th...

September 18, 2024
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The 3 Plays facing all Aussie Traders

We will do a deep dive into how to trade the upcoming US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday but for now we need to address the Fed and others from an Australian traders perspective as it is one of 3 plays we need to be mindful of. 1. Hard or Soft – Can we stick the landing? All central banks across the developed world are doing summersaul...

September 17, 2024
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The Third Digital revolution – The “Now” Questions for AI

Over the past 3 months Nvidia has moved through ranges that some stocks don’t do in years, in some cases decades. Having lost over 35 per cent in the June to August sell off, it quickly bounced over 40 per cent in the preceding 20 days once it hit its August low as we build positions ahead of its results.  These results delivered Nvidia style...

September 13, 2024
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Strength of Signal – An Important Consideration for Traders?

In this article, we take an in-depth look at the concept of strength of signal and its potential role in improving trading outcomes. Traders are constantly seeking ways to enhance their results consistently, and the idea of evaluating the strength of a trading signal may provide a pathway toward greater reliability and performance when applied to t...

September 13, 2024
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The FX: Has the Fed dropped the ball?

We have been discussing Sahms’ law for the last few weeks. This is the regression indicator that signals the possibility of recession. For those that can't remember, Sahms' recession indicator is when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate has risen by more than 0.5 per cent from the previous 12 month low. Every time this has hap...

September 9, 2024
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That’s a wrap – The ASX earning season

So FY24 earnings are now done and from what we can see the results have been on the whole slightly better than expected. The catch is the numbers that we've seen for early FY25 which suggested any momentum we had from 2024 may be gone. So here are 8 things that caught our attention from the earnings season just completed. Resilient Economy...

September 3, 2024
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Jackson Hole leaves a hole heap of questions about employment

We now have a post-Jackson Hole set of questions – will the data stick up to what was preached. Reviewing the reactions to Jackson Hole treasury yields declined on a ramp up in bets around the Federal Funds rate after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks, which were in line with what we forecasted last week. His dovish remarks ...

August 27, 2024
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Jackson Hole Symposium – When doves try

Jackson Hole Symposium – When doves try Market pricing of the Federal Funds rate currently sits at 93 basis point of easing by year-end. Let us put that into perspective it was 110 basis points of easing at the peak of excitement, yet despite the increase in yields DXY has sold off and now trades sub-102.00 and is still falling like a stone. W...

August 21, 2024
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Hold tight: trading the RBA

With core CPI missing expectations and some slight deceleration in other areas such as retail sales an overall service economic activity. The RBA is likely to hold tight and not raise rates on Tuesday. We say this with some confidence, based on the communication coming from RBA governor Bullock. She had emphasised the importance of the second qu...

August 5, 2024
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One of two ways: Trading Australia’s CPI data

Australia's second quarter CPI due out on the 31st of July could go one of two ways so let's dive into how it will move and how to trade it. First way - Coming in line or below Currently 24 of the 30 surveyed economists see inflation coming in line or below expectations. That is June quarter CPI coming in at 1% quarter on quarter and 3.8% yea...

July 30, 2024
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Deja vu of 2023

Market action and underline breath of the last two and half weeks has been extreme and rather eye opening.  The S&P 500 has made 38 record all time highs in 2024 so far, however since its most recent peak on July 16 it has traded lower ever since. Now we need to put that into perspective, the pullback since its July high is 4.75 percent to ...

July 26, 2024
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Do you catch a falling knife?

We all know the market term ‘don't catch a falling knife’. And in the current market conditions why would you? But with indices, the likes of the magnificent 7, industrials and banks doing so well in 2024 people are asking where's the value? And that is why people chase falling knives, because they perceive this value. They perceive that if ...

July 23, 2024
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