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9/3/2021
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Commentary on geopolitical developments, economic data, central bank decisions, earnings, policy changes and other global or financial market events is based on information available at the time of publication and may change without notice. Such events can lead to sudden market moves, price gaps, reduced liquidity, wider spreads and increased volatility, particularly in leveraged products such as CFDs. Forward-looking statements, expectations and scenario analysis are inherently uncertain and should not be relied on as guarantees of future market behaviour or outcomes.

Related Articles

US Earnings
AI
Announcments
Shares
Defence, disruption and big finance: 3 names worth watching this earnings season

So here is the thing: April’s US earnings season is arriving in a market that still feels anything but normal. As GO Markets explains in The global US earnings playbook: The essential guide for traders, this reporting period is landing after a real shift in what markets care about. It is no longer just about chasing growth at any cost. It is about what the numbers are saying beneath the surface.

And in 2026, those signals are colliding with a high-friction backdrop:

  1. Geopolitical conflict: Ongoing tension in the Middle East
  2. Oil supply shock: Brent crude above US$100
  3. The Fed: A central bank still boxed in by sticky inflation

The durability pivot

Yes, AI is still the market’s main story but it's still the flashy engine getting most of the attention. But underneath that, there is a quieter move towards companies that look built to hold up better when conditions get harder.

When rates are uncertain and energy markets are under pressure, names like JPMorgan Chase and the major defence contractors start to carry more weight. They are not replacing the AI narrative, rather, they are becoming part of the way traders read risk appetite, earnings durability and, ultimately, where the market is looking for something more solid to hold on to.

! Important: Reporting schedules can change without notice. Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are from third-party market consensus sources, as of 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are from the latest company filings or results presentations unless stated otherwise. Figures and schedules may change without notice.
$JPM | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

NYSE | Financial Services | 14 Apr 2026
Reported

Global Release Countdown (BMO)

RELEASE LIVE
Reported EPS
US$5.94
Reported Revenue
US$50.54bn
Market Intelligence: $JPM

Analysis: JPM price drivers and scenarios
NII guidance
~US$103 billion
Full year | US$95 billionn ex:markets
ROTCE target
17%
Possible return on tangible common equity
Analyst range
US$5.02-5.70
Low to high estimate spread
AVG
LOW US$5.02 AVG US$5.39 HIGH US$5.70

The analyst spread of US$0.68 signals genuine disagreement about how the rate environment is flowing through to margins. A result above consensus but below the high end estimate may produce a muted reaction. A result above US$5.70 may shift the discussion.

Key swing factors for the result

Net interest income (NII)
The clearest macro lever. It reflects the gap between lending rates and deposit costs.
Guidance: US$103 billion for the full year
Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE)
A scale check. It indicates whether JPM is converting scale into efficiency. 17% is the benchmark.
Target: 17% ROTCE
Trading and investment banking
Strong Q1 growth was expected in fees and markets revenue. These lines can offset softness in lending, and stronger-than-expected performance here may shift the narrative away from rate sensitivity.
Watch: investment banking (IB) fees versus the prior quarter
Expense discipline
A bank can beat the EPS estimate and still sell off if expense growth is running too hot. Pairing the EPS result with the expense trajectory gives a fuller read on whether the beat is durable.
Watch: Expense outlook commentary
Trade Execution: $JPM

Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$5.70, NII on track | ROTCE at or above 17%
The result comes in above the top of the analyst range. NII guidance holds or is revised higher. IB fees and markets revenue show strong Q1 growth. Expense commentary is constructive.
Possible reaction: momentum and repositioning
Base case
EPS between US$5.39 and US$5.70, NII in line | ROTCE near target
The result beats consensus but stays within the expected range. NII tracks guidance. The tone of the conference call may matter more than the headline number. The first move may fade if guidance is unchanged.
Possible reaction: muted or mixed initial response
Bear case
EPS below US$5.39 | NII misses | Expense growth surprises
The result comes in at or below the consensus midpoint. NII guidance is cut or qualified. Expense growth comes in above market expectations. IB or markets revenue disappoints.
Possible reaction: earnings multiple repricing

Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.

Sentiment Analysis · JPMorgan Chase

Interactive scenario analysis: $JPM
Select earnings outcome
Growth momentum

AI-linked offset, beat supported by NII and ROTCE

Stronger-than-expected demand for AI-related industrial lending may offset softer mortgage activity. Management maintains guidance as NII remains resilient in higher-for-longer conditions. IB fees and markets revenue may provide additional support. ROTCE at or above 17% would suggest the bank is converting scale into earnings efficiently.
EPS Outcome
Above US$5.70
NII Signal
On track
ROTCE
At or above 17%
Likely Reaction
Momentum may build

Sources & Data Methodology Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

From credit to defence

If JPMorgan gives the market an early read on the consumer, credit quality and business activity, the defence names may be telling a different story. This is the point where the focus may start to shift from the credit cycle to government-backed demand.

In a market still shaped by geopolitical risk, that matters. Long-dated programs can help support revenue visibility, even when the broader outlook looks less certain. That is one reason the sector remains on the watchlist.

$LMT | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Lockheed Martin Corp.

NYSE | Aerospace | Defense | 23 Apr 2026
Confirmed

Global Release Countdown (BMO)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.50
Consensus Revenue
US$16.32bn
AU | ASIA 23 Apr | 9:20 pm
US | LATAM 23 Apr | 7:20 am
Market Intelligence: $LMT

Analysis: LMT price drivers and scenarios
Order backlog
US$194 billionn
Record visibility
Book-to-bill
1.2x
Orders outpacing sales
Analyst range
US$6.90-7.10
Low to high estimate spread
AVG
LOW ~US$6.90 AVG ~US$6.94 HIGH US$7.10+

The consensus sits near the lower end of the analyst range. That positioning may leave room for upside if backlog growth and F-35 delivery timelines support execution. A print near the high end, above US$7.10, may extend the move, although the reaction would still depend on guidance and margins.

Key swing factors for the result

Backlog visibility
Primary evidence of demand. Book-to-bill above 1.2x would support full-year guidance and the production ramp.
Backlog: US$194 billion record
Free cash flow (FCF)
Defence stocks are often assessed on cash conversion. The market may look for confirmation of the US$6.5 billion floor.
Guide: US$6.5 billion - $6.8 billion
Missile segment growth
PrSM and THAAD deliveries remain key watchpoints. Strong space margins may help offset softness in aeronautics.
Watch: Fire Control margins
Margin pressure
Pension charges and production inflation remain risks. An earnings beat may fade if operating margins contract.
Watch: segment operating margin
Trade Execution: $LMT

Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$6.70, backlog visibility confirmed | FCF guide holds
The result clears the upper half of the analyst range. Management reaffirms or raises the full-year FCF outlook. Strong Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) margins help offset any aeronautics supply chain lag.
Possible reaction: momentum may build and positioning may improve
Base case
EPS between US$6.30 and US$6.70 | Backlog steady at about US$194 billion
The result aligns with the US$6.38 consensus. F-35 delivery pace remains on track but offers no meaningful upside surprise. The market may wait for more specific segment guidance on the conference call.
Possible reaction: muted or mixed initial response
Bear case
EPS below US$6.30 | FCF guide qualified, margin contraction
The result falls towards the bottom of the analyst spread. Management cites further software delays or program losses. The FCF trajectory narrows towards the lower end of previous expectations.
Possible reaction: the share price may come under pressure

Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.

Sentiment Analysis · Lockheed Martin

Interactive scenario analysis: $LMT
Select earnings outcome
Backlog confirmed

Backlog and FCF confirmation may support continuation

EPS clears the top of the analyst range. Backlog holds at or above US$194 billion and book-to-bill stays above 1.2, which would suggest orders are replenishing faster than revenue is being recognised. FCF guidance holds within the stated range.
EPS outcome
Above US$7.00
Backlog signal
Above US$194 billion
FCF guide
Holds or improves
Likely reaction
Continuation may follow

Sources & Data Methodology Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Not all defence names are the same

Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman may sit in the same defence bucket, but the market does not always read them the same way. Lockheed is more closely tied to the F-35 and current air combat demand. Northrop is more closely linked to next-generation programs such as the B-21 Raider and Sentinel.

That gives this section its contrast. One is often read through the lens of current defence demand. The other is more closely tied to longer-cycle strategic modernisation.

$NOC | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Northrop Grumman Corp.

NYSE | Defense | Space Systems | 21 Apr 2026
Confirmed

Global Release Countdown (BMO)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.12
Consensus Revenue
US$10.24 bn
AU | ASIA 21 Apr | 10:30 pm
US | LATAM 21 Apr | 8:30 am
Market Intelligence: $NOC

Analysis: NOC price drivers and scenarios
Consensus EPS
US$6.96
Quarterly analyst average
Order Backlog
US$95.7 billion
Record revenue visibility
FY 2026 EPS guide
US$27.40-US$27.90
Full-year 2026 outlook
AVG
LOW ~US$6.90 AVG ~US$6.96 HIGH US$7.20+

The consensus sits near the lower end of the analyst range. That offers a quick visual for whether the result is merely in line or strong enough to ease the guidance concerns that weighed on the stock after its last update. A result above US$7.20 may shift the conversation more materially.

Key swing factors for the result

Book-to-bill ratio
Currently at 1.10, suggesting orders are still running ahead of revenue recognition. This remains an important signal for multi-year growth visibility in defence.
Watch: 1.10 target
Guidance reset risk
Management’s guidance previously came in below market expectations. The market may be sensitive to any further softening in the 2026 outlook.
Watch: guidance commentary
Program concentration
The B-21 Raider and Sentinel carry outsized execution sensitivity. Updates on production ramp and funding may be the clearest drivers of sentiment for the stock.
Watch: B-21 and Sentinel updates
Capacity investment
Higher capital expenditure (capex) supports the industrial base over the longer term, but it may pressure near-term margins. Watch for signs that current investment is weighing on earnings power.
Watch: operating margins
Trade Execution: $NOC

Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$6.30, backlog expansion above US$96 billion | Free cash flow (FCF) guidance raised
The result comes in above the cited threshold. Management says B-21 Raider production is ahead of schedule, with improving margins. Sentinel program restructuring costs remain below baseline expectations. International awards lift the book-to-bill ratio above 1.15.
Possible reaction: momentum may improve
Base case
EPS between US$6.00 and US$6.20, backlog steady at about US$95.7 billion
The result is broadly in line with the cited range. FCF targets for 2026 are reaffirmed but not expanded. Market focus shifts to organic sales growth metrics and segment operating margins. The initial reaction may depend on the timing of B-21 milestone payments.
Possible reaction: little reaction
Bear case
EPS below US$5.95 | margin pressure, guidance narrowed
The result lands near the low end of the analyst spread. Management flags higher infrastructure costs for Sentinel or delays in restricted space segment awards. Margin pressure in Aeronautics persists, and the 2026 revenue guide narrows towards the US$43.5 billion floor.
Possible reaction: shares may weaken

Reaction trigger to watch: The market response in the first 30 minutes after the result may indicate which scenario traders are leaning towards. A move above the prior session high on volume may support the bull case. A fade back into the range after an initial pop may point to the base case. A break below the prior session low on volume may suggest the bear case is gaining traction.

Sentiment Analysis · Northrop Grumman

Interactive scenario analysis: $NOC
Select earnings outcome
Stealth momentum

B-21 momentum, stronger execution and FCF support

EPS clears US$6.15. Management confirms a production capacity agreement for the B-21 Raider. Sentinel restructuring reaches Milestone B on schedule. Record backlog visibility and higher FCF guidance towards US$3.5 billion may support broader repositioning.
EPS outcome
Above US$6.15
B-21 Signal
Acceleration
FCF guide
$3.5 billionn range
Likely reaction
Momentum rally

Sources & Data Methodology Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 7 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Bottom line

In a market shaped by geopolitical risk and shifting rate expectations, companies with visible demand and longer-cycle revenue may continue to attract attention. But sentiment can still turn quickly if valuations are stretched, rate expectations shift again, or tensions in the Middle East ease.

That is why the story still needs to be tested against the numbers, not just the narrative. GO Markets will be analysing more companies throughout this earnings season. For more updates, visit our earnings page, follow our social media channels, or check the weekly newsletters.

Your next earnings setup starts here

Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.

Need help? Contact our support team

GO Markets
•
April 7, 2026
Index
Announcments
Central Banks
Geopolitical events
Market insights
What are the market drivers for APAC in April 2026?

Asia-Pacific markets start April with a focus on how prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz feeds through to inflation, trade flows, and policy expectations. China's 15th Five-Year Plan shifts attention toward artificial intelligence and technological self-reliance, with knock-on effects for supply chains and regional growth. Japan and Australia both face the challenge of managing imported energy inflation while gauging how far they can normalise policy without derailing domestic demand.

For traders, the mix of elevated energy prices and policy divergence may keep volatility elevated across regional indices and currencies.

Key watchlist

Top China data point

March exports (14 April)

Top Japan event

BOJ rate decision (27-28 April)

Top Australia event

March quarter CPI (29 April)

Main regional wildcard

Sovereign AI trade restrictions

Most sensitive market

Nikkei 225 / USD/JPY

Key threshold

Brent crude above US$110

China

Lawmakers in Beijing have approved the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), placing artificial intelligence (AI) and technological self-reliance at the centre of the national agenda. The government has set a growth target of 4.5% to 5.0% for 2026, the lowest in decades, as it prioritises quality of growth over speed.

APAC Sections — GO Markets (Webflow embed snippets)

Key dates (AEST)

13
Apr
M2 money supply and new yuan loans
People's Bank of China
Medium
14
Apr
March balance of trade
General Administration of Customs
High
16
Apr
Q1 GDP and March industrial production
National Bureau of Statistics
High

What markets look for

  • Evidence of technology-driven industrial production growth consistent with Five-Year Plan priorities
  • March export resilience in the face of shifting global tariff frameworks
  • Signs of stabilisation in domestic consumer retail sales
  • Any implementation detail on the "new-type national system" for AI development

Why it matters for the region

China's shift toward high-value manufacturing and AI self-sufficiency could reshape regional supply chains and influence demand for commodities. A stronger-than-expected trade surplus may support broader regional sentiment, although higher energy costs can pressure margins for Chinese exporters and weigh on import demand. The 16 April GDP release carries the most weight as the first quarterly read on whether the 4.5%-5.0% target is tracking.

Japan

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) faces increasing pressure to normalise policy as energy-driven inflation risks a resurgence. While consumer prices excluding fresh food slowed to 1.6% in February, the recent oil price spike may push the consumer price index (CPI) back toward the 2% target in coming months.

Key dates (local / AEDT or AEST)

30
Mar
Tokyo CPI (March)
Statistics Bureau of Japan  ·  Lead indicator for national trends (AEDT)
Medium
27–28
Apr
BOJ monetary policy meeting and outlook report
Bank of Japan  ·  Live event for rate hike watch (AEST)
High

What markets look for

  • BOJ guidance on the timing of potential rate increases
  • March Tokyo CPI data as a lead indicator for national price trends
  • Updated inflation forecasts in the quarterly outlook report
  • Official comments on yen volatility and any reference to intervention thresholds

Why it matters

The BOJ remains a global outlier, with its short-term policy rate held at 0.75% after the March meeting, and any hawkish shift could trigger sharp moves in forex pairs involving the yen. Markets are weighing whether the BOJ can tighten policy while the government simultaneously resumes energy subsidies to shield households from rising oil costs. These competing pressures make the April meeting and outlook report unusually informative.

Australia

The Australian economy remains in a state of two-speed divergence, with older households increasing spending while younger cohorts face significant affordability pressures. Following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate increase to 4.10% in March, markets are highly focused on upcoming inflation data to assess whether additional tightening may be required.

Key dates (AEST)

16
Apr
March unemployment rate
Australian Bureau of Statistics  ·  11:30 am AEST
Medium
29
Apr
March quarter CPI (Q1)
Australian Bureau of Statistics  ·  11:30 am AEST
High
30
Apr
March producer price index (PPI)
Australian Bureau of Statistics  ·  11:30 am AEST
Medium

What markets look for

  • Whether Q1 underlying inflation remains above the RBA's 2%-3% target band
  • Labour market resilience in the face of rising borrowing costs
  • The pass-through of global energy prices into domestic transport and logistics costs
  • RBA minutes (31 March) for any signal of internal policy disagreement

Why it matters

The 29 April CPI release may be the most consequential domestic data point before the RBA's May meeting. If inflation proves sticky or accelerates due to global energy shocks, the probability of a further rate increase could rise, with implications for both the Australian dollar and volatility across the ASX 200. The PPI reading the following day may also provide early signal on whether producer-level cost pressures are building in the pipeline.

‍

Regional themes

  • ◆
    ASEAN demand signals March trade data from Singapore and Malaysia may indicate whether regional electronics demand is holding up amid global uncertainty.
  • ◆
    India growth trajectory Elevated energy costs could weigh on India's 2026 expansion plans, particularly following the New Delhi AI summit and associated infrastructure commitments.
  • ◆
    Commodity sentiment Iron ore and thermal coal prices remain sensitive to signals from China's industrial policy and the pace at which Five-Year Plan priorities translate into actual demand.
  • ◆
    Currency pressure Energy-importing economies across Asia and Europe may face sustained currency headwinds if Brent crude holds above US$100 for an extended period.

‍
Track Asia-Pacific themes and
monitor moves as they unfold.
Open an account · Log in

GO Markets
•
March 27, 2026
Announcments
GO Markets victorious at the World Business Outlook Awards

The World Business Outlook Awards are among the most distinguished recognitions in the global business landscape, celebrating excellence, innovation, and outstanding performance across various sectors. GO Markets' remarkable win in this category underscores its commitment to providing exceptional services and building trust among its clientele. Founded in 2006 and headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, GO Markets specialises in Forex and CFD trading.

The broker provides 1000+ tradable CFD instruments, including forex, shares, commodities, indices, metals, cryptocurrencies and bonds. GO Markets is regulated by ASIC in Australia, CySEC in Cyprus, FSC in Mauritius, and FSA in Seychelles. As a globally recognised forex broker, they remain committed to pushing the boundaries of excellence and innovation in the financial services industry.

GO Markets clients can access a wide range of trading platforms like MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, cTrader, cTrader copy trader, PAMM, MetaTrader copy trading, mobile trading and more. As GO Markets continues to expand its global footprint and enhance its product offerings, the company remains dedicated to providing education to novice traders. GO Markets provides educational materials and resources necessary to perform seamless trading.

There are various forex learning courses, video tutorials, and frequently held seminars and webinars included in the educational programmes that are free to use for all traders. Shashank M, CEO of World Business Outlook, commented, "We are delighted to extend our sincerest congratulations to the well-deserving winner. GO Markets' Journey to Success has been nothing short of inspiring, marked by unwavering dedication and utmost commitment to showcasing excellence in every facet of its operations.

With their exceptional services for trading forex, shares, commodities, and indices available to investors around the world, it is no surprise that they emerged as leaders in their field." Soyeb Rangwala, Director of GO Markets expressed his gratitude after winning the title and commented, "We are proud of our dedicated and expert customer service team who have garnered several accolades from across the globe. GO Markets is committed to maintaining its global leadership for customer service and education programmes. After receiving the top ratings for trading ideas and strategies, margin requirements, and account funding/withdrawals, this new recognition from World Business Outlook further boosts our teams’ morale and inspires us to dedicate a whole new level of experience for our clients." About GO Markets GO Markets is a regulated and multi-award-winning online global CFD trading provider, offering 1000+ tradable CFD instruments.

GO Markets began in Australia in 2006 and is widely recognised as Australia’s first MT4 broker. GO Markets has since added MT5, cTrader, cTrader copy trader, PAMM, MetaTrader copy trading, mobile trading, and a web-based solution to its trading platform suite. The clients’ trading journey is of the utmost importance, and as such, GO Markets is committed to continually refining its technology, client support, and education. https://www.gomarkets.com/au/ About World Business Outlook World Business Outlook is a Singapore-based print and online magazine providing comprehensive coverage and analysis of the financial industry, international business, and the global economy.

It offers a nuanced perspective on global economic trends, business strategies, and market insights. In a world where interconnectedness is the norm, the magazine provides a platform for thought leaders, industry experts, and policymakers to share their views on navigating the complex web of international business dynamics.

GO Markets
•
August 9, 2024
See all News & Insights

Recent Articles

AI
US Earnings
Shares
US earnings preview: Wall Street wants answers from Meta, Amazon and Apple

We have spent the last three instalments of this series mapping the plumbing of the 2026 economy: the banks that anchor the capital, the utilities that supply the electrons, and the chipmakers building the silicon. As the April reporting season moves into its final act, attention shifts to the front door.

Meta, Amazon and Apple sit at the point where the AI buildout meets everyday consumers and businesses.

Why return on investment is now the focus

A hard divide, sometimes called the “Great Dispersion”, is opening between companies that enable AI and companies that monetise it. Meta and Amazon are at the centre of a massive capital expenditure (capex) cycle, against an estimated industry-wide spend of roughly US$650 billion to US$700 billion in 2026.

That is why return on investment (ROI) metrics are front of mind.

  1. Is Meta’s AI-driven ad targeting strong enough to justify its spending programme?
  2. Is Amazon Web Services (AWS) re-accelerating fast enough to support the custom silicon push?
  3. Can Apple hold its premium valuation by showing the iPhone 17 cycle is real, even in a more difficult Chinese market?

In 2026, the question is no longer only who can build the data centres. It is who can turn those investments into sustainable, high-margin profit. With energy markets calmer after the recent ceasefire, technology valuations have had some room to breathe. Now the market wants evidence.

IMPORTANT: REPORTING SCHEDULES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. REPORTING DATES AND RELEASE TIMES ARE FROM COMPANY INVESTOR RELATIONS CALENDARS WHERE MARKED CONFIRMED; OTHERWISE THEY ARE GO MARKETS ESTIMATES. CONSENSUS EPS, REVENUE AND ANALYST-RANGE DATA ARE FROM THIRD-PARTY MARKET CONSENSUS SOURCES, AS OF 20 APRIL 2026 (AEST). COMPANY GUIDANCE, BACKLOG AND OPERATING METRICS ARE FROM THE LATEST COMPANY FILINGS OR RESULTS PRESENTATIONS UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. FIGURES AND SCHEDULES MAY CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.

$META | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Meta Platforms, Inc.

NASDAQ | Technology/Advertising | 29 Apr 2026
✓ CONFIRMED

Global Release Countdown (AMC)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$6.69
Consensus Revenue
US$55.4bn
AUSTRALIA/ASIA 30 Apr | 6:05 am
US/LATAM 29 Apr | 4:05 pm
Market intelligence: $META

Analysis: Meta price drivers and scenarios
Ad click improvement (est.)
+3–5%
From AI-driven targeting
2026 capex estimate
~US$135bn
Market estimate range
Silicon strategy
MTIA 2nm
Broadcom co-development
Strategy note

What is MTIA 2nm? This is Meta's "home-grown" AI chip. The 2nm refers to ultra-advanced, high-efficiency technology. By building their own silicon with Broadcom, Meta aims to slash their massive electricity bills and end their total reliance on buying expensive NVIDIA hardware. If this works, it protects Meta's profit margins even if they keep spending billions on AI.

AVG
LOW US$6.30 AVG US$6.69 HIGH US$7.10

Meta has moved from its "Year of Efficiency" into what CEO Mark Zuckerberg calls the "Era of Personal Superintelligence". By April 2026, AI appears to have sharpened the company’s core advertising engine, with some reports suggesting ad click rates rose by around 3% to 5%. But the bigger strategic issue is Meta’s multi-year Broadcom partnership to co-develop custom 2nm MTIA chips, with the aim of reducing reliance on NVIDIA and lowering operating costs over time. The risk is that Meta could beat on earnings and still disappoint if management points to higher spending and a longer payoff period. The real question is whether efficiency gains are keeping pace with the capital expenditure (capex) bill.

Call focus and key signals

The Avocado AI model
Watch for ad click improvements tied to the "Avocado" AI model deployment, currently estimated to be lifting rates by up to 5%.
Signal: Monetisation efficiency
MTIA rollout status
Updates on the custom 2nm MTIA chip rollout with Broadcom will indicate Meta's long term cost structure flexibility.
Watch: Infrastructure independence
Reality Labs losses
Evidence of Reality Labs loss stabilisation would reduce the persistent drag on the overall earnings story.
Watch: Operating loss trend
Capex vs efficiency
The real question for investors is whether efficiency gains are keeping pace with the significant capex bill.
Signal: Spending productivity
Sentiment analysis: Meta Platforms

Interactive scenario analysis: $META
Select earnings outcome
Productive cycle

Spending cycle becomes productive

EPS above US$7.10, double-digit ad growth, and clear early efficiency gains from MTIA. The market may interpret that as a sign the spending cycle is becoming more productive rather than simply more expensive.
EPS level
Above US$7.10
Ad growth
Double digit
Efficiency
MTIA gains
Reaction
Strong rally
Sources & Data Methodology

Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 20 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Expanded Coverage

Beyond the chipmakers

As the "show me the money" year unfolds, discover how AI demand is impacting Tesla, NextEra, and Exxon.

Amazon: the capex bet moves to centre stage

Amazon is no longer just a retail story. It is increasingly a cloud and advertising business, with a thin-margin logistics network attached. In 2026, the narrative is centred on what reports have described as a roughly US$200 billion capex plan, aimed largely at building out AWS’s AI infrastructure.

$AMZN | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Amazon.com, Inc.

NASDAQ | Technology/Retail | 29 Apr 2026
✓ CONFIRMED

Global Release Countdown (AMC)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.69
Consensus Revenue
~US$177.7bn
AU/ASIA 30 Apr | 6:00 am
US/LATAM 29 Apr | 4:00 pm
Market Intelligence: $AMZN

Analysis: Amazon price drivers and scenarios
AWS growth threshold
20% YoY
Market floor expectation
2026 Capex plan (est.)
~US$200bn
Largely AWS AI infrastructure
Custom silicon
Trainium 3 and 4
In-house AI chip pipeline
AVG
LOW US$1.50 AVG US$1.69 HIGH US$1.90

Amazon is no longer primarily a retail story. In 2026, the narrative centres on approximately US$200 billion in planned capex, directed largely at building out AWS's AI infrastructure. That is an extraordinary commitment, and the market is watching closely to see whether the returns are following. One metric matters most: AWS growth.

Key signals to watch

AWS growth rate
Anything materially below 20% YoY could reinforce the bear case that spending is running well ahead of returns.
Watch: AWS growth vs 20% floor
Trainium supply commitments
Early supply commitments for Trainium 3 and 4 would signal how quickly the transition to in-house chips is progressing.
Watch: Trainium 3 and 4 progress
Retail margins under tariff pressure
Management commentary on whether Section 122 tariff costs are being absorbed or passed on is vital for the non-AWS story.
Watch: Retail operating margin
Advertising segment momentum
Sustained growth here provides a high-margin earnings cushion if retail margins are squeezed by logistics or tariffs.
Watch: Advertising revenue growth
Sentiment Analysis · Amazon.com Inc.

Interactive scenario analysis: $AMZN
Select earnings outcome
Investment Landing

Spending cycle lands well

EPS above US$1.90 and AWS growth above 24% with firmer retail margins. The market interprets this as proof the massive investment cycle is delivering efficient returns.
EPS Level
Above US$1.90
AWS Signal
Above 24%
Retail Margin
Firmer
Reaction
Positive rally
Sources & Data Methodology

Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 20 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Apple: quality still needs proof

Apple has looked like the defensive favourite in hardware, helped by record free cash flow (FCF) of US$43.64 billion and the strength of its Services segment. But the latest debate is whether that defensive status can turn back into growth. Third-party shipment data has indicated a roughly 20% rise in China for iPhone 17, challenging the idea that the market is already mature.

$AAPL | Q2 FY2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Apple Inc.

NASDAQ | Consumer Technology | 30 Apr 2026
✓ CONFIRMED

Global Release Countdown (AMC)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.91
Consensus Revenue
~US$109.0bn
AU/ASIA 01 May | 6:30 am
US/LATAM 30 Apr | 4:30 pm
Market intelligence: $AAPL

Analysis: Apple price drivers and scenarios
Free cash flow (FCF)
US$43.6bn
Record, prior period
Services run-rate target
~US$30bn
Quarterly revenue approach
China iPhone 17 shipments
+~20%
Third-party data estimate
AVG
LOW US$1.70 AVG US$1.91 HIGH US$1.94

Apple is still widely seen as a quality print, but expectations are higher now. Margin resilience alone is no longer enough. The market wants evidence that Apple Intelligence, the company’s on-device AI platform, can extend the upgrade cycle and support more recurring, high-margin Services revenue over time.

Key signals to watch

iPhone 17 demand in China
China remains the most closely watched variable. Third-party data has pointed to growth of around 20%, but earnings will provide the first company-sourced data point.
Watch: China revenue growth
Services revenue trajectory
Services is approaching a US$30 billion quarterly run rate and carries structurally higher margins. Further acceleration reduces reliance on iPhone cycle volatility.
Watch: Services revenue vs US$30bn
Apple Intelligence rollout
On-device AI is a key upgrade catalyst. Management commentary on adoption, features and international timing will shape refresh cycle expectations.
Watch: Apple intelligence milestones
Gross margin
Apple guided to a 48% to 49% range. Holding near the top signals product mix strength. A result below 48% raises questions about cost pressure.
Watch: Gross margin vs 48% to 49%
Sentiment analysis: Apple Inc.

Interactive scenario analysis: $AAPL
Select report outcome
Growth support

Support for growth narrative

EPS above US$1.94, firmer China iPhone 17 data and gross margin above 49%. The market may interpret that as support for the higher-quality growth narrative and validate the thesis that Apple Intelligence is beginning to drive a meaningful upgrade cycle.
EPS level
Above US$1.94
China demand
Firmer
Gross margin
Above 49%
Reaction
Bullish move
Sources & Data Methodology

Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 20 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Thematic risks

What could shift the picture

Three risks could change the narrative, regardless of how the numbers print.

1. Spending without visible returns

Meta and Amazon are both running enormous capex programmes, with payoff periods that stretch well beyond a single quarter. If either company delivers an in line or weaker result while also lifting full year spending guidance, the market may start to see the gap between investment and return as a structural issue rather than a temporary one. That would matter for the sector as a whole, not just for one stock.

2. China as a variable, not a constant

Apple's China story has shown some resilience in third party data, but it remains sensitive to trade policy, consumer confidence and local competition. Any signal from management that demand is softening faster than expected, or that local rivals are gaining meaningful share in the mid range and premium segments, could reset the earnings growth outlook more quickly than consensus currently assumes.

3. The K-shaped consumer backdrop

In a market where higher income consumers are holding up while lower income groups remain under pressure, ad spending patterns and device upgrade cycles can diverge sharply from headline averages. If Meta's ad pricing weakens because smaller businesses pull back, or if Apple's upgrade cycle is concentrated within a narrower demographic, results could disappoint even with broadly stable macro conditions.

Note: These thematic risks may influence sector wide risk appetite independently of headline EPS results.
The bottom line

The 2026 reality check

As this earnings season moves towards its close, the story is shifting away from survival and towards operational execution in the intelligence era.

$META

AI ad efficiency is facing its biggest test yet. Can the Broadcom silicon bet start to show up in margins?

$AMZN

AWS re-acceleration remains the critical signal. A US$200 billion capex push needs a growth rate to match.

$AAPL

Quality still needs proof. Apple Intelligence has to show it can extend the upgrade cycle, not just refresh it.

For Meta, Amazon and Apple, the test is whether heavy investment in silicon, models and infrastructure is turning into measurable cash flow and durable margins. In a more uneven economy, the market appears to be rewarding companies that can show real demand and clearer monetisation. The earnings numbers matter, but management commentary on the return on that investment may matter more.

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GO Markets
•
April 20, 2026
Microsoft, Alphabet and NVIDIA sit at the centre of the AI infrastructure buildout, from cloud and enterprise software to custom chips and data-centre demand. Their upcoming results may help show whether heavy capital spending is translating into revenue, margins and durable competitive advantage.
AI
US Earnings
Shares
Are Microsoft, Alphabet and NVIDIA about to show whether AI is worth the cost?

April's US earnings season is landing in a market that wants more than a good story. JPMorgan has already set a high bar with a strong result, and attention is now shifting to the engine room of the S&P 500: AI infrastructure. Three companies are at the centre of that story.

Why this earnings window matters for AI

Microsoft, Alphabet and NVIDIA are not just participants in the AI cycle, they are building the physical and software architecture that other companies depend on: the chips, the cloud regions, the models and the tools. If this spending is going to deliver returns, the first signs may start to show in their quarterly results over the next few weeks.

Each company represents a different test.

  1. Microsoft: Whether enterprise AI adoption is translating into revenue and margin expansion
  2. Alphabet: Whether owning the full stack, from chips to cloud to distribution, is a durable advantage or simply an expensive position to defend
  3. NVIDIA: Whether the hardware cycle is still holding, accelerating or starting to level out

In 2026, the question is no longer whether AI investment is happening, the capital commitments are substantial and already publicly stated. The question is whether that spending is generating returns quickly enough to justify the scale of those bets.

IMPORTANT: REPORTING SCHEDULES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. REPORTING DATES AND RELEASE TIMES ARE FROM COMPANY INVESTOR RELATIONS CALENDARS WHERE MARKED CONFIRMED; OTHERWISE THEY ARE GO MARKETS ESTIMATES. CONSENSUS EPS, REVENUE AND ANALYST-RANGE DATA ARE FROM THIRD-PARTY MARKET CONSENSUS SOURCES, AS OF 16 APRIL 2026 (AEST). COMPANY GUIDANCE, BACKLOG AND OPERATING METRICS ARE FROM THE LATEST COMPANY FILINGS OR RESULTS PRESENTATIONS UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. FIGURES AND SCHEDULES MAY CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.

$MSFT | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Microsoft Corporation

NASDAQ | Technology | 29 Apr 2026
Confirmed

Global Release Countdown (AMC)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$4.04
Consensus Revenue
US$81.40bn
AU/ASIA 30 Apr | 6:05 am
US/LATAM 29 Apr | 4:05 pm
Market Intelligence: $MSFT

Analysis: Microsoft price drivers and scenarios
Azure Growth Target
37-38%
Constant currency projection
AI Contribution
+6-8 pts
Azure revenue from AI services
FY26 Capex
US$146bn
Total infrastructure spending
AVG
LOW US$3.86 AVG US$4.04 HIGH US$4.14

Microsoft is being tested on a specific question: can it turn heavy AI spending into margin expansion? A result above US$4.14 could ease concerns over "capex fatigue" and demonstrate whether Azure growth is re-accelerating alongside enterprise AI adoption.

Factors that could move the markets

Azure growth rate
Watch if constant-currency growth re-accelerates above 39%, suggesting AI workloads are filling new capacity rather than sitting idle.
Signal: Capacity Utilisation
Workplace agent adoption
The shift to autonomous agents is central. Clear enterprise uptake in Dynamics 365 supports the high-tier subscription thesis.
Signal: Software Monetisation
Maia 200 cost savings
If the in-house AI chip is lowering inference costs at production levels, gross margins may start to recover from recent compression.
Watch: Gross Margin Recovery
Regulatory backdrop
Ongoing scrutiny of cloud bundling practices remains a potential headwind; management commentary here is vital for the long-term view.
Watch: Bundling Compliance
Sentiment Analysis · Microsoft Corp.

Interactive scenario analysis: $MSFT
Select earnings outcome
AI Scaling Proof

Strong result, backed by real AI progress

EPS above US$4.14 and Azure re-acceleration above 39% could support the view that AI spending is starting to translate into commercial returns. Workplace Agents show measurable ROI and FY26 guidance is raised.
EPS Outcome
Above US$4.14
Cloud Signal
Accelerating
Guidance
Raised
Possible reaction
Strong rally
Sources & Data Methodology

Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 16 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Expanded Coverage

Beyond the Chipmakers

As the "show me the money" year unfolds, discover how AI demand is impacting Tesla, NextEra, and Exxon.

From enterprise software to search and cloud

Alphabet has transformed from a search business into a sprawling AI infrastructure play, and this result will test whether that transformation is delivering. The US$185 billion capex forecast for 2026 is extraordinary, close to double last year's spending. EPS is expected to decline slightly year on year, precisely because that infrastructure spending is consuming capital. The question is whether Google Cloud's growth is fast enough to show a credible path back to margin recovery, and whether Ironwood, the seventh-generation custom AI chip, is proving its cost-per-query advantage at scale.

$GOOGL | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Alphabet Inc.

NASDAQ | Technology | 29 Apr 2026
Confirmed

Global Release Countdown (AMC)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$2.64
Consensus Revenue
US$92.14bn
AU/ASIA 30 Apr | 6:30 am
US/LATAM 29 Apr | 4:30 pm
Market Intelligence: $GOOGL

Analysis: Alphabet price drivers and scenarios
Cloud growth
48% YoY
Compared with last quarter
Ironwood TPU
10x peak
Vs previous-generation chip
2026 Capex
US$185bn
Double last year's spending
AVG
LOW US$2.50 AVG US$2.64 HIGH US$2.80

Alphabet has shifted to being viewed as a broader AI infrastructure play. The question is whether Cloud growth can support a path back to margin recovery while the massive US$185bn infrastructure buildout absorbs capital.

Factors that could move the markets

Google Cloud momentum
Markets are watching if the 48% growth rate holds, specifically among customers using Ironwood TPUs for large-scale AI.
Signal: Enterprise AI Adoption
Search & AI overview
If compute-intensive AI summaries are monetising through ads, it supports core search economics in the AI era.
Focus: Search Economics
Capex & margin trajectory
With free cash flow under pressure from US$185bn capex, markets want to know when infrastructure investment will moderate.
Watch: Spending Ceiling
DOJ antitrust risk
Management commentary on the legal timeline for Chrome or Android divestiture appeals will influence how risk is priced.
Watch: Regulatory Remedies
Sentiment Analysis · Alphabet Inc.

Interactive scenario analysis: $GOOGL
Select earnings outcome
Efficiency Proof

Ironwood efficiency drives upside

EPS above US$2.80 and cloud growth above 45% suggest Ironwood is cutting costs and strengthening Google’s advantage faster than expected.
EPS outcome
Above US$2.80
Cloud Signal
Strong growth
Waymo
Accelerating
Reaction
Sentiment improves
Sources & Data Methodology

Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 16 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

NVIDIA: the hardware cycle read through

NVIDIA is no longer simply a chip company. It has become what analysts now describe as the central bank of compute, the entity whose product determines how much AI capacity the world can actually deploy.

The upcoming Q1 FY2027 result will test whether the new Vera Rubin R100 GPU architecture, which entered mass production ahead of schedule, is already contributing to revenue, and whether NVIDIA can sustain gross margins above 75% as inference, rather than training, becomes the dominant workload. Inference is more competitive and more price-sensitive than training, so margin resilience here matters.

$NVDA | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

NVIDIA Corporation

NASDAQ | Semiconductors | 20 May 2026
Confirmed

Global Release Countdown (AMC)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.70
Consensus Revenue
US$78.42bn
AU/ASIA 21 May | 6:30 am
US/LATAM 20 May | 4:30 pm
Market Intelligence: $NVDA

Analysis: NVIDIA price drivers and scenarios
Revenue growth
73% YoY
Last quarter benchmark
Data centre share
91%+
Share of total revenue
Rubin R100
In production
Mass production began April 2026
AVG
LOW US$76bn AVG US$78bn HIGH US$81bn+

NVIDIA’s outlook depends on whether Rubin R100 can keep gross margins above 75% as inference becomes a bigger part of demand. Because inference is more price-sensitive than training, margins are the key test.

Factors that could move the markets

Rubin ramp-up
Watch whether Rubin production can scale smoothly without disrupting the Blackwell transition.
Signal: supply chain continuity
Inference margins
The key test is whether NVIDIA can keep gross margins above 75% as inference revenue grows.
Signal: pricing power holds up
Sovereign AI demand
Government-backed investment in Europe and the Middle East could broaden the base beyond hyperscalers.
Signal: market expansion
CUDA regulatory risk
Any US or European scrutiny of NVIDIA’s software advantage could move the stock regardless of the revenue result.
Signal: software moat under review
Sentiment Analysis · NVIDIA Corp.

Interactive scenario analysis: $NVDA
Select earnings outcome
Rubin ramp supports growth

Rubin ramp supports growth

Revenue above US$81 billion may suggest the Rubin ramp is tracking ahead of expectations. That could support the view that AI demand is broadening into sovereign AI and enterprise markets, helping extend visibility into 2027.
Revenue Outcome
Above US$81bn
Gross Margin
Above 75%
Workload
Inference strong
Reaction
Positive read-through
Sources & Data Methodology

Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 16 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

Why this reporting window matters for the broader market

Microsoft and Alphabet report on the same evening, 29 April, making the overnight session into 30 April one of the most information-dense points of the year for equity markets. For Australian traders, both results should be available by 6:30 am AEST on Thursday 30 April. That means price reactions may already be visible in US futures before the ASX opens.

NVIDIA reports later, in May, but it casts a long shadow over everything in between. The guidance the company gave for Q1 FY2027, US$78 billion in revenue, has set a benchmark the market has been tracking for months. If Microsoft and Alphabet's results suggest AI infrastructure demand has softened, that could reset expectations heading into NVIDIA's call. If both beat expectations and signal accelerating cloud growth, that could lift the floor for what NVIDIA may report.

That interconnection is what makes this cluster different from most earnings windows. The results do not just affect the individual companies. They also signal the health of an investment supercycle that has driven global equity market leadership for the past two years.

What could shift the picture

Three risks could change the narrative regardless of how the numbers print. Each one is worth understanding before the results land.

1

Capex fatigue

If both Microsoft and Alphabet report in line or below expectations while reaffirming enormous spending plans, the market may start pricing the risk that AI monetisation is slower than the spending implies. That is not a stock-specific concern. It would be a broader de-rating event, affecting the valuations of companies across the technology sector that are priced on the assumption that AI returns are coming and coming soon.

2

Regulatory escalation

The FTC investigation into Microsoft, the DOJ case against Alphabet, and emerging EU scrutiny of NVIDIA's CUDA software ecosystem are all active. A material legal development before the earnings calls, whether a new filing, a remedy announcement or a court ruling, could overshadow the financial results entirely. Regulatory risk in this sector is not theoretical. It is live and moving.

3

Competition from custom silicon

Microsoft's Maia 200 chip, Alphabet's Ironwood TPU, Amazon's Trainium and Meta's custom accelerators are all reducing how much the large cloud companies depend on NVIDIA hardware. If any of these companies signals a meaningful shift in its GPU procurement plans during the earnings call, that could create uncertainty around NVIDIA's forward order book, even if its own Q1 FY2027 results beat expectations.

The 2026 Reality Check

$MSFT

AI spend is shifting from cost to competitive advantage. The question is whether margins can follow.

$GOOGL

Vertical integration from chips to search to cloud may prove to be a moat, or an expensive position to defend.

$NVDA

This is the pulse of the AI hardware cycle, and a test of whether Rubin can keep the supercycle alive into 2027.

Bottom Line

Microsoft and Alphabet report on the same evening, 29 April. NVIDIA follows in late May. Together, they may offer the clearest read yet on whether the AI infrastructure buildout is generating returns fast enough to justify the extraordinary scale of capital being committed. The earnings per share (EPS) number is important. What management says about AI monetisation timelines, capex trajectories and competitive positioning may matter more.

Your next earnings setup starts here

Stay ahead of major beats, misses, and market surprises. Log in to your terminal, open a new account, or explore our dedicated earnings academy.

Need help? Contact our support team

GO Markets
•
April 16, 2026
Why Tesla NextEra and Exxon matter this earnings season, what to watch in Tesla earnings 2026, how AI power demand affects NextEra Energy, what Exxon Mobil earnings could signal for oil markets, Tesla Megapack growth outlook 2026, NextEra data centre power demand explained, Exxon Mobil oil supply risk outlook, energy stocks to watch in April 2026
AI
Commodity
Geopolitical events
US Earnings
Tesla, NextEra and Exxon: Oil vs. AI demand this US earnings season

April’s US earnings season is arriving in a market that is asking harder questions. It is no longer enough for companies to tell a good story. Traders want to see whether the physical side of the next cycle is turning into real revenue, steadier margins and clearer guidance.

That is why Tesla, NextEra Energy and Exxon Mobil matter this month. Each sits close to a theme the market is trying to price right now: autonomy, electricity demand and oil supply risk. They are very different businesses, but together they offer a useful read on where attention may be shifting when the market wants something more tangible.

In 2026, those signals are colliding with a high-friction backdrop:

  1. AI power demand is pushing utilities, storage and grid capacity into focus
  2. Tesla needs to show that autonomy and energy can support the next chapter beyond EV margins
  3. Oil supply risk has pushed energy security back into the conversation

Why this part of the market matters

The broader theme here is simple. AI still matters. Growth still matters. But this earnings season may also test the companies supplying the power, infrastructure and fuel behind that story.

For beginner to intermediate traders, this matters because these stocks can move for very different reasons. Tesla can trade on margins and product narrative. NextEra can trade on power demand and capital spending plans. Exxon can move with crude, refining margins and buyback confidence. Looking at them together gives traders a clearer way to think about how the market is pricing the real economy side of the 2026 story.

IMPORTANT: REPORTING SCHEDULES CAN CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. REPORTING DATES AND RELEASE TIMES ARE FROM COMPANY INVESTOR RELATIONS CALENDARS WHERE MARKED CONFIRMED; OTHERWISE THEY ARE GO MARKETS ESTIMATES. CONSENSUS EPS, REVENUE AND ANALYST-RANGE DATA ARE FROM THIRD-PARTY MARKET CONSENSUS SOURCES, AS OF 14 APRIL 2026 (AEST). COMPANY GUIDANCE, BACKLOG AND OPERATING METRICS ARE FROM THE LATEST COMPANY FILINGS OR RESULTS PRESENTATIONS UNLESS STATED OTHERWISE. FIGURES AND SCHEDULES MAY CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE.

$TSLA | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Tesla Inc.

NASDAQ | Consumer Discretionary | 23 Apr 2026
Confirmed

Global Release Countdown (AMC)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$0.41
Consensus Revenue
US$22.26bn
AU/ASIA 24 Apr | 6:05 am
US/LATAM 23 Apr | 4:05 pm
Market Intelligence: $TSLA

Analysis: Tesla price drivers and scenarios
Auto Gross Margin
17-19%
Target floor, excl. credits
Megapack Growth
+25% YoY
Projected energy deployment
Analyst range
US$0.32-0.48
EPS estimate range
AVG
LOW US$0.32 AVG US$0.41 HIGH US$0.48

The US$0.16 analyst range shows there is still a lot of uncertainty. The main question is how weaker vehicle deliveries compare with stronger, higher-margin energy storage contributions. A result above US$0.48 would suggest the autonomy and battery story is improving faster than the bear case expects.

Key factors that could move the result

Automotive gross margin
This is the most important number for Tesla’s core business. Markets want to see whether price cuts have started to settle, or whether margins are still under pressure.
Benchmark: 17% (excluding credits)
Energy storage (Megapacks)
This is the more durable growth story. Strong Megapack deployment and battery margins could help offset weaker vehicle deliveries
Focus: Storage growth versus pressure in the auto business
Full Self-Driving (FSD) & Robotaxi
This is the main narrative driver. Markets will watch for updates on FSD adoption and the robotaxi timeline to judge whether the move towards “physical AI” is becoming more credible.
Watch: Timing for next-generation autonomy technology
Regulatory credits
This is a quality check on the result. If EPS is boosted too much by credit sales, some traders may see the beat as less durable.
Watch: How much credit sales contribute to final EPS
Trade Execution: $TSLA

Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026
Bull case
EPS above US$0.45, energy margins at 20%+ | FSD take rates rising
The result clears the top-tier analyst range. Commentary focuses on FSD scaling and Megapack production ramps rather than vehicle discounting. FY26 guidance is reaffirmed.
Possible reaction: stronger momentum, with short covering adding support
Base case
EPS between US$0.38 and US$0.43, auto margins stable | Near target
The result is close to expectations, but there is no major surprise from the energy business. The market stays focused on the robotaxi timeline. The initial move may be limited if the product mix looks unchanged.
Possible reaction: range-bound trading or a muted early response
Bear case
EPS below US$0.35, auto margins drop below 16% | Signs of FSD delays
The result misses even cautious expectations. Rising inventory suggests more discounting may be needed. The market starts to question whether the level of spending on AI and autonomy is too high.
Possible reaction: rotation out of the stock, especially if growth confidence weakens
Sentiment Analysis · Tesla Inc.

Interactive scenario analysis: $TSLA
Select earnings outcome
Growth momentum

Strong result, helped by energy and FSD

FSD and Energy do better than expected, which helps offset weaker car deliveries. Management gives the market more confidence that autonomy is getting closer to real revenue. Auto margins staying above 17% would also help.
EPS Outcome
Above US$0.45
Energy Signal
On track
Margins
At or above 17%
Likely Reaction
Strong rally

Sources & Data Methodology Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 14 April 2026 (AEDT). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings, results presentations or investor relations materials unless stated otherwise. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

From autonomy to electricity

If Tesla is the market’s test of whether physical AI can become a business, NextEra is a test of whether the power buildout behind AI is starting to show up more clearly in utility economics.

That is what makes the shift from Tesla to NextEra interesting. One is about ambition and platform narrative. The other is about power, contracts, infrastructure and return on capital.

$NEE | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

NextEra Energy, Inc.

NYSE | Utilities | 24 Apr 2026
Confirmed

Global Release Countdown (BMO)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$0.91
Consensus Revenue
US$7.17bn
AUSTRALIA (AEST) 24 Apr | 9:35 pm
ASIA (UTC+8) 24 Apr | 7:35 pm
Market Intelligence: $NEE

Analysis: NEE price drivers and scenarios
Backlog Conversion
~29.8 GW
Energy Resources total backlog
Growth Framework
8%+ Annual
Adjusted EPS growth through 2032
Analyst Range
US$0.88 - 1.06
Q1 estimate spread
AVG
LOW US$0.88 AVG US$0.92 HIGH US$1.06

Against the 2026 ‘year of proof’ theme, the key issue is whether upcoming results turn strategic announcements into clearer execution signals. NextEra is a test of whether the power buildout behind AI is starting to show up clearly in utility economics.

Trade Execution: $NEE

Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026

Key signals to watch

Contract Quality
Watch for movement from customer interest (20+ GW) to signed large load agreements.
Signal: Large load monetization
Natural Gas Hub Strategy
Firmer milestones on the approved up to 10 GW natural gas buildout approved earlier this year.
Signal: Infrastructure execution
Funding Clarity
Monitoring the impacts of the US$2.3bn equity sale and any potential Japanese funding progress.
Signal: Financing risk management
Sentiment Analysis · NextEra Energy

Interactive scenario analysis: $NEE
Select earnings outcome
Execution Focus

"Utility Renaissance" validates via execution signals

EPS above US$1.06 shifts attention to execution. Management points to signed large load agreements and clearer milestones for natural gas buildout. Progress converting 29.8 GW backlog into construction-ready projects strengthens sentiment significantly.
EPS Outcome
Above US$1.06
Infrastructure Signal
Contracts Signed
Likely Reaction
Sentiment Strengthens
Sources & Data Methodology

Sources: Reporting dates and release times are from company investor relations calendars where marked Confirmed; otherwise they are GO Markets estimates. Consensus EPS, revenue and analyst-range data are sourced from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers, as at 13 April 2026 (AEST). Company guidance, backlog and operating metrics are sourced from the latest company filings or results presentations. Any scenario analysis reflects GO Markets analysis. Figures and schedules may change without notice.

From power to oil

If NextEra reflects the electricity side of the real economy story, Exxon Mobil reflects the fuel side. That matters in a market where supply risk can still reset inflation expectations, shift sector leadership and change how traders think about defensiveness.

$XOM | Q1 2026 REPORTING PERIOD

Exxon Mobil Corporation

NYSE | Energy | 29 Apr 2026
Estimated

Global Release Countdown (BMO)

00:00:00:00
Consensus EPS
US$1.66
Consensus Revenue
US$82.47bn
AUSTRALIA (AEST) 29 Apr | 8:30 pm
ASIA (UTC+8) 29 Apr | 6:30 pm
Market Intelligence: $XOM

Analysis: XOM price drivers and scenarios
Liquids Pricing Effect
+$1.9B - $2.3B
Positive 1Q realized price support
Energy Products Timing
-$3.3B to -$4.1B
Unfavourable 1Q accounting drag
Analyst Range
US$1.60 - 1.85
Low to high Q1 estimate spread
AVG
LOW US$1.60 AVG US$1.66 HIGH US$1.85

Exxon is the clearest oil-linked test in the market. The key issue is whether stronger oil and gas pricing can outweigh volume disruptions (6% production hit) and massive negative timing effects from Energy Products.

Trade Execution: $XOM

Earnings reaction framework: Q1 2026

Key signals to watch

Price Support vs Volume
Did the $2.3B pricing tailwind absorb the 6% Middle East production disruption?
Signal: Realized price strength
Timing Reversibility
Management commentary on whether the $4.1B timing drag is strictly non-cash and accounting-related.
Signal: Quality of earnings beat
Guyana Execution
Operational updates on the core upstream portfolio to ensure the long-term growth story remains constructive.
Signal: Upstream resilience
Sentiment Analysis · Exxon Mobil

Interactive scenario analysis: $XOM
Select earnings outcome
Price Support

Pricing tailwind more than absorbed the disruption

EPS above US$1.85 suggests high realized pricing from liquids absorbed volume hits. Management indicates timing effects were less severe than feared, with constructive operational updates from Guyana and the broader upstream portfolio.
EPS Outcome
Above US$1.85
Timing Impact
Smaller than feared
Likely Reaction
Sentiment Strengthens
Sources & Data Methodology

Sources: Reporting dates from company investor relations (Estimated for April 29, BMO). Consensus EPS and analyst-range data from Bloomberg and Earnings Whispers as at 13 April 2026 (AEDT). Scenario analysis reflects evaluateions of internal energy considerations. Figures and schedules are subject to change without notice.

Bottom line This late-April energy cluster is about more than three company reports. It is a live test of what the market wants to pay for in 2026. Tesla can show whether autonomy and energy are becoming more than a promise. NextEra can show whether rising electricity demand is turning into practical utility growth. Exxon can show whether oil strength still translates into durable earnings power. Taken together, they offer a useful read on the part of the market that looks more physical, more capital-intensive and, for many traders, more real.

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GO Markets
•
April 15, 2026
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