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中东欧外汇:随着价格压力上升,上扬可能消退 - 荷兰国际集团

荷兰国际集团(ING)的 Frantisek Taborsky 认为,近期中东欧(CEE)外汇和利率的涨势可能不会持续。捷克通胀数据表明,核心通胀率升至 3.1%,这强化了市场对捷克国家银行(CNB)除非地缘政治局势改善,否则将在 11 月加息的预期。ING 的另一份报告警告称,能源和食品带来的通胀风险正在显现,预计全球价格上涨将传导至当地,并削弱该地区近期的喘息空间。
通胀风险威胁中东欧涨势
“昨日市场情绪喜忧参半,反映出在周一美国收盘后出现的补涨,以及天然气价格创出新高。尤其是后者表明,中东欧地区无法长期享受喘息。”
“昨日来自捷克共和国的通胀数据证实,核心通胀率从 3.0% 升至 3.1%。尽管这只是上升了 0.1 个百分点,但这标志着自 2023 年 12 月以来的最高水平。”
“更重要的是,潜在结构和加速的动能实际上已为 CNB 在 11 月加息的理由定了调——除非地缘政治局势出现显著改善。”
“说到通胀,我们昨天发布的一份新报告讨论了源自能源和食品价格的中东欧地区新兴通胀风险。”
“到目前为止,食品价格一直抵消了该地区更高的燃料成本,使总体通胀保持在可控范围内。预计未来几个月这一动态将发生变化,因为我们看到全球价格将滞后传导至当地通胀。”
“尽管我们昨日看到外汇和利率出现上涨,但鉴于更高通胀风险上升,以及近期利率与能源价格之间观察到的强相关性,我们认为当前的利率涨势并不合理。因此,我们预计这些涨幅将是短暂的。”
(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,并经编辑审核。了解更多。)
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