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欧元/美元价格预测：在美国通胀数据公布前谨慎情绪下回吐早盘涨幅
- 欧元/美元在美国9月CPI数据公布前小幅回落至1.1190附近。
- 美联储政策制定者已表示，美国通胀风险仍然偏高。
- 欧洲央行不太可能在本月晚些时候的会议上加息。
周三欧洲交易时段，欧元（EUR）兑美元（USD）小幅走低至1.1190附近，此前曾从当日高点1.1211回落。随着美元收复早盘失地，这一主要货币对小幅下跌，投资者在美国（US）9月消费者物价指数（CPI）数据将于GMT12:30公布前转趋谨慎。
截至发稿，追踪美元兑六种主要货币价值的美元指数（DXY）小幅走高至102.24附近。
丹麦银行（Danske Bank）分析师预计9月数据将温和走强，预测“整体通胀月率经季调为0.5%，年率为3.6%（前值：月率0.6%，年率3.4%），核心通胀月率经季调为0.2%，年率为2.5%（前值：月率0.3%，年率2.4%），其中能源价格是预期整体通胀回升的主要推动因素。”
通胀数据预计将显著影响美联储（Fed）的利率预期，因为官员们已多次表示，他们对居高不下的通胀风险高度担忧。
当天晚些时候，投资者还将关注美联储褐皮书，该报告将于GMT18:00公布。
在欧元方面，金融市场似乎越来越确信，欧洲央行（ECB）不会在本月晚些时候的政策会议上加息。
根据路透社10月5日至8日进行的一项调查，73位经济学家中有70位预计欧洲央行将在10月29日将存款利率维持在2.50%。
欧元/美元技术分析
日图显示，欧元/美元交投于1.1192。该货币对仍承受明显的看跌压力，价格延续自近期高点以来的跌势，并在这一轮走势中继续刷新低点。14日相对强弱指数（RSI）位于29.62，略低于超卖阈值，暗示看跌动能已显疲态，但短期内仍占主导。
下行方面，10月12日低点1.1153是关键支撑位。上行方面，10月6日高点1.1277将构成主要阻力。
（本报道的技术分析由人工智能工具协助撰写。了解更多。）
经济指标
美国核心消费者物价指数年率
通胀或通缩趋势是通过定期汇总一篮子代表性商品和服务的价格来衡量的，并将数据以消费者物价指数（CPI）的形式呈现。CPI数据是由美国劳工统计局每月编制并发布的。同比读数将参考月份的商品价格与前一年同月的价格进行比较。剔除食品和能源的CPI排除了所谓波动较大的食品和能源成分，以提供更准确的价格压力测量。一般来说，高读数对美元（USD）是利多的，而低读数则被视为利空。
阅读更多下一次发布: 周三 10月 14, 2026 12:30
频率: 每月
预期值: 2.5%
前值: 2.4%
来源: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
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