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美元:CPI意外可能推动DXY升向105 - 三菱日联金融集团

三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)的 Derek Halpenny 指出,在美国收益率走高引发近期飙升后,G10 外汇波动性已开始回落,但他警告称,风险仍偏向于重新出现动荡。他将中东紧张局势、美国可能介入以及能源价格与收益率进一步上行和美元走强联系起来。9 月美国 CPI 被视为利率走势的关键,若数据强劲,将支持美元和美元指数(DXY)再度上行。
收益率和 CPI 推动美元
"在近期大幅上升之后,G10 外汇波动性正开始再次回落,因为美元在主权债券收益率飙升的推动下走强。债券市场波动性也出现了类似的小幅回撤,如果债券收益率已在新的均衡水平附近企稳,那么我们可能会看到利率和外汇波动性进一步下降。然而,在我们看来,当前收益率飙升阶段仍有进一步上行的风险更大。"
"今天美国的通胀数据非常重要,它将决定利率在极短期内的方向;若数据偏软,将有助于缓解更广泛的风险,但当前环境和地缘政治背景仍指向金融市场条件出现更大波动的风险上升,而这至少在初期将有利于美元进一步走强。"
"不过,就短期而言,美联储似乎已准备再次加息,而今天数据若意外偏强,可能会引发又一轮利率抛售,并推动美元进一步走强。根据我们对 2 年期美国国债收益率的预测,美元指数(DXY)完全有可能升至 105 水平,这意味着欧元/美元可能跌破 1.1000 水平。"
"如果今天的 CPI 符合市场预期,料不会对利率预期造成太大影响;只有明显低于预期(核心环比 0.0%)才可能引发美元显著抛售。"
(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,并经编辑审核。了解更多。)
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