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欧元：美国PMI数据火热后，美元兑欧元走强——丹麦银行

FXStreet Insights Team

September 24, 2026

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丹斯克银行（Danske Bank）的丹斯克研究团队指出，强劲的美国 PMI 和偏鹰派的美联储定价拖累了欧元/美元。综合 PMI 大幅上升，推动市场对美联储 10 月份再次加息的预期，并将欧元/美元拉低至 1.14 下方。该团队强调，服务业投入价格上升以及金融条件收紧是美元兑欧元走强的关键驱动因素。

强劲的美国 PMI 将欧元/美元推低至 1.14 下方

"在欧元区，综合 PMI 明显意外上行，9 月升至 53.1（预期：51.7，前值：52.0），创三年多来最高水平。服务业推动了这一增长，升至 53.0（预期：51.4，前值：51.6），而制造业则维持在 52.7 不变（预期：52.6，前值：52.7）。"

"所有价格指数均上升，服务业产出价格升至 2024 年初以来最高，表明更高的能源成本可能正在扩散，尽管这一水平本身并不令人担忧。随着增长和通胀指向同一方向，这份数据对欧洲央行（ECB）而言显得偏鹰派，公布后短端利率明显上升。我们预计还会有两次加息，而未来一个月的能源价格将决定首次加息是否会早至 10 月。"

"在美国，初值 PMI 也远超预期，综合 PMI 从 8 月的 56.0 升至 9 月的 58.4。制造业 PMI 从 53.9 升至 57.0，新订单、产出和就业均走高，而服务业 PMI 则从 56.5 升至 58.7。"

"细节显示，服务业投入价格正以 2022 年 11 月以来最快的速度上升，表明价格压力可能不仅仅能用能源来解释。总体而言，这份数据与欧元区一样偏鹰派，并将欧元/美元拉低至 1.14 下方，因为市场已计入美联储 10 月再次加息 70%的概率。"

"昨日美国过热的初值 PMI 在欧洲时段晚间引发金融条件急剧收紧。股市和债市均遭抛售，美元兑所有其他 G10 货币全面走强。"

（本文由人工智能工具协助生成，并经编辑审核。了解更多。）

FXStreet Insights Team

September 24, 2026

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