市场资讯及洞察

石油市场习惯于在停止结算之前就看上去已经定下来了。这就是现在的设置。
随着伊朗周边冲突的加剧,霍尔木兹海峡的交通量急剧下降,越来越多的船只因关闭AIS或自动识别系统而陷入黑暗,这些信号通常显示船只在哪里移动。霍尔木兹不只是另一条航道。它是世界上最重要的能源阻塞点之一,因此,当能见度开始消失时,供应风险就会回到对话的中心。
为什么现在这很重要
这很重要,有两个原因。
头条新闻是一回事。市场影响是另一回事。石油不仅关乎有多少桶,还关系到这些桶能否流动,谁愿意为它们投保,买家准备等待多长时间,以及交易者认为他们需要在多大风险的基础上定价。
目前,有三件事同时发生冲突:航运中断、外交脆弱以及市场已经严重倾向于一个方向。这种组合可以使布伦特原油的走势比基本面本身通常所暗示的要快。
是什么推动了这一举动
1 供应能见度恶化
第一个驱动程序很简单。市场看得更少,这往往会让市场更加紧张。
通过霍尔木兹的过境量急剧下降,而越来越多的交通量涉及不再广播标准跟踪信号的船只。简而言之,正常通过重要走廊的船只越来越少,越来越多的活动也变得越来越难以追踪。这并不自动意味着供应即将崩溃。但这确实意味着不确定性正在上升。
2 伊朗的储存缓冲区可能有限
第二个驱动因素是伊朗的出口和储存限制。
陆上储存容量估计约为4000万桶,市场正在关注有人所说的16天红线。到那时,长期的出口中断可能会开始迫使减产,以避免对储油库造成损害。对于新读者来说,要点很简单。如果石油不能储存足够长的时间,问题可能不再是出口延迟,而是开始成为真正的供应问题。
3 定位可以放大移动
第三个驱动因素是定位,这只是市场简写,说明在下一步行动发生之前交易者已经如何进行设置。
在这种情况下,投机性原油头寸显得严重片面。这很重要,因为当市场向一个方向倾斜得太远时,触发急剧调整并不需要太多时间。新的地缘政治冲击可能迫使交易者迅速采取行动,而一旦开始,价格的上涨幅度可能会超过单纯基础新闻所能证明的合理性。
为什么市场在乎
石油冲击很少能在能源市场内得到控制。
较高的原油价格可能会开始出现在运费、制造业和家庭能源账单中。这意味着通货膨胀预期可能会再次开始攀升。各国央行已经在努力管理粘性通货膨胀和疲软增长之间的艰难平衡,因此石油价格上涨会使这项工作变得更加艰难。
这不仅仅是一个关于石油生产商获得提振的故事。当能源成本上升时,航空公司、运输公司和其他对燃料敏感的企业可能会迅速承受压力。如果石油价格上涨使通货膨胀保持强于预期,则更广泛的股市可能还必须重新考虑政策前景。
连锁反应远不止石油
还有一个货币角度,它不如最初出现的那么简单。
当原材料价格上涨时,与大宗商品挂钩的货币,例如澳元,通常会获得支撑。但是这种关系不是自动的。如果石油价格因为全球需求改善而攀升,那可能会有所帮助。如果由于地缘政治风险激增而攀升,则市场可能会转向避险模式,即使大宗商品价格上涨,这也可能打压澳元。
这就是让这种举动比乍一看更有趣的原因。同样的石油涨势可以支撑市场的一个部分,同时给另一部分带来压力。
框架中的资产和名称
布伦特原油仍然是广泛供应风险中最明显的解读。如果交易者想要最简洁的头条新闻表达,通常是他们首先看的地方。
- 埃克森美孚是画面中最明显的名字之一。油价上涨可以支撑已实现的销售价格和短期的盈利势头,尽管这从来都不像石油上涨、囤积那么简单。成本、生产结构和更广泛的情绪仍然很重要。
- NexTera Energy 又增加了一层。这个故事不仅仅是关于化石燃料的。当能源安全成为一个更大的问题时,国内电力弹性、电网投资和替代发电的理由也将得到加强。
- 澳元/美元是另一个值得关注的市场。澳大利亚与大宗商品周期密切相关,因此原材料价格走强有时可以支撑该货币。但是,如果市场对恐惧的反应大于对增长的反应,那么通常的顺风可能不会成立。
对于新读者来说,关键是石油走势不会以整齐的、可预测的线条在市场中传播。它们不均匀地向外波动,帮助某些资产,给其他资产施加压力,有时两者兼而有之。
可能会出什么问题
强烈的叙述与单向交易不同。
停火可以比预期更快地稳定航运。欧佩克+可以通过提高产量来抵消部分紧张局势。来自中国的需求数据可能会令人失望,将焦点转移到消费疲软而不是供应受限上。而且,如果地缘政治溢价消退,石油回落的速度可能比当前情绪所暗示的要快。
对于新读者来说,要点很简单。石油涨势可以是真实的,但不是永久性的。短期内,中断风险可能证明此举是合理的,然后如果这些风险缓解或需求疲软,则迅速逆转。
市场不再孤立地对石油进行定价。这是定价可见性、运输安全性以及供应中断蔓延到通货膨胀、货币和更广泛的风险情绪中的风险。
这就是为什么Hormuz很重要,即使对于从未自己交易过一桶原油的读者来说也是如此。


On Monday, Citigroup raised its target price for the Irish multinational conglomerate, Johnson Controls International plc (NYSE: JCI), from $58 to $61 a share. On Tuesday, Johnson Controls announced its latest financial results for its fiscal fourth 2023. Let’s see how it performed.
Company overview Founded: 1885 Headquarters: Cork, Ireland Number of employees: 102,000 (2022) Industry: Conglomerate Key people: George Oliver (Chairman, CEO) The results Johnson Controls reported revenue of $6.906 billion for the quarter (up by 3% year-over-year), which missed analyst estimate of $7.099 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also fell short of estimates at $1.05 per share (up by 6% year-over-year) vs. $1.095 per share expected. CEO commentary "Our fiscal 2023 results, highlighted by strong sales growth and margin expansion, further validate that our strategy of providing solutions that make buildings smarter, healthier, and more sustainable continues to gain momentum," George Oliver, CEO of Johnson Controls said in a letter to investors. "We made significant progress during the year advancing our service strategy, enabled by digital, and we continue to see strong order momentum and record backlog entering our new fiscal year," Oliver added.
Stock reaction The stock was down by over 6% during the trading day on Tuesday, trading at $52.63 a share. Stock performance 1 month: -0.58% 3 months: -9.06% Year-to-date: -18.54% 1 year: -21.70% Johnson Controls International stock price targets Citigroup: $61 Oppenheimer: $66 UBS Group: $74 Wells Fargo: $62 HSBC: $69 Morgan Stanley: $70 Barclays: $64 JP Morgan: $72 Deutsche Bank: $65 Mizuho: $78 Bank of America: $72 Johnson Controls International plc is the 507th largest company in the world with a market cap of $35.89 billion. You can trade Johnson Controls International plc (NYSE: JCI) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
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FX traders have some tier one data releases to look forward to today, including the last major central bank meeting in the form of the Bank of Japan. RBA monetary policy minutes and Canadian CPI also having market moving potential. AUDUSD The Aussie was modestly in the green in Monday’s session after initial strength that saw it outperform G10 rivals in the European morning faded later in the session.
AUDUSD supported by further PBoC liquidity and a firmer Yuan fix early on. A mixed risk sentiment in the US session saw it hit resistance at the 4-monthth highs of 0.6735 and reversing course to a low of 0.6690. RBA minutes released at 11:30 AEDT have the potential to see an RBA pushback against the market’s view that rates have definitely peaked, lending a tailwind to the Aussie.
USDCAD USDCAD edged higher in Monday’s session but held near its four month lows, rising oil prices amid heightened Red Sea tensions tempering losses in CAD with traders awaiting today’s CPI inflation data. Economists expect the Canadian CPI to show inflation slowing to an annual rate of 2.9% in November from 3.1% in October. The Bank of Canada has left the door open to further rate hikes, so this reading will be a pivotal one to test that narrative.
USDJPY The much anticipated Bank of Japan could see some big swings in JPY as investors look for clues as to when the central bank foresees the end to its easy money policies. Bank officials have recently pushed back against rate hike expectations for this meeting. But with traders pricing in the end of negative rates in January, the language at this meeting will be key for the short-term performance of the yen.
A hawkish surprise could push USDJPY towards the 140 handle, an unchanged message could bring the cross back up to the 145 level.


USD bounced back to start the first full week of December after a horror run in November where the Dollar Index (DXY) fell around 3%. DXY breaking through the 200 Day SMA resistance and printing a high of 103.850. Sour risk sentiment and higher treasury yields (particularly in the short end) helping DXY erase the Powell inspired drop on Friday.
With the Fed having entered their blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting (meaning no Fed member jawboning) data this week will take on extra importance with USD traders particularly watching Services PMI data today and the NFP jobs report on Friday. AUD and NZD were the G10 underperformers, a strong USD and a broad risk-off backdrop the main drivers rather than anything specific to the currencies. AUDUSD was looking to test the 0.67 resistance early in the session before reversing course to test the support at 0.66 before finding some buyers.
Aussie traders have the December RBA meeting to navigate, with the Central Bank widely expected (95% chance according to futures) to keep rates unchanged. What AUD trader will be watching is for any change of language in the accompanying statement with regards to futures hikes, will the RBA leave the door ajar, wide open or shut it completely? Expect some volatility in the AUD as traders race to work that part out at announcement time.


Wednesdays FOMC meeting was always going to be about whether we’d see a hawkish pushback against market expectations of a dovish Fed in 2024, or a validation of those expectations, from the market reaction to the meeting, traders decided the latter is the conclusion. Rates were kept on hold at 5.35%-5.5% as expected but the updated dot plot and the language of the accompanying statement and Powell presser confirmed what most market participants were predicting, US rates have peaked, and multiple rate cuts are coming next year. This saw the USD dump along with yields with the US Dollar Index (DXY) blowing through its 200-day SMA (where it had been finding support) closing at session lows of 102.77.
The next minor support to the downside being the November swing low of 102.46. The Yen was a particular beneficiary of the dump in US yields which saw the rate differential between the US and JP 10 Year tighten significantly. USDJPY dropping to a 142 handle as it played catch up to the yields and now testing a key support level around its 200-day SMA and December lows.
Gold surged over 30 USD an ounce as a falling Dollar and yields emboldened the bulls. XAUUSD retaking the psychological 2000 USD an ounce level after finding strong support at the October Lows – December high 50% Fib level. A retest of the major resistance at 2070 could be on the cards, and is a key level to watch for gold traders.
Central bank action continues today with both the SNB and BoE scheduled to release their latest rate decisions.

American wholesale chain, Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), announced financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 after the closing bell in the US on Thursday. Company overview Founded: September 15, 1983 Headquarters: Issaquah, Washington, United States Number of employees: 316,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Hamilton E. James (Chairman), W.
Craig Jelinek (President and CEO) The results Costco reported total revenue of $57.799 billion for the quarter, which narrowly beat Wall Street analyst estimate of $57.785 billion. Revenue was up by 6% from the same period a year prior. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $3.58 per share (up by 16.61% year-over-year), above $3.411 per share expected.
The company announced a cash dividend of $15 per share to all shareholders of the stock as of close of business on 28/12/2023. Stock reaction Shares of Costco were down by 1.75% on Thursday at $630.78 a share. The stock was down by around 1% in the after-hours as Wall Street digested the latest results from the company.
Stock performance 1 month: +9.48% 3 months: +12.16% Year-to-date: +38.76% 1 year: +36.54% Costco stock price targets Oppenheimer: $675 Evercore ISI: $650 Stifel: $615 Truist Financial: $619 Telsey Advisory Group: $625 JP Morgan: $605 Wells Fargo: $525 Loop Capital: $630 Deutsche Bank: $652 Morgan Stanley: $585 Bank of America: $610 Costco Wholesale Corporation is the 29th largest company in the world with a market cap of $281.37 billion. You can trade Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
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US technology giant and one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world, Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO), announced fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 results after the market close in the US on Thursday. Company overview Founded: 1961 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 20,000 (2023) Industry: Semiconductor, computer software Key people: Henry Samueli (Chairman), Hock Tan (President and CEO) The results Broadcom reported revenue of $9.295 billion (up by 4% year-over-year) vs. $9.277 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst estimates for the quarter at $11.06 per share vs. $10.96 per share expected.
Net revenue reached $35.819 bill for the full fiscal 2023, up by 8% from the year prior. EPS reached $32.94 per share, an increase of 24.31% year-over-year. CEO commentary "Broadcom's fiscal year 2023 revenue grew 8% year-over-year to a record $35.8 billion, driven by investments in accelerators and network connectivity for AI by hyperscalers," President and CEO of Broadcom, Hock Tan, highlighted the reasons for the successful year for the company. "The acquisition of VMware is transformational.
In fiscal year 2024 we expect semiconductor to sustain its mid to high single digit revenue growth rate, with the contribution of VMware driving consolidated revenue to $50 billion, and adjusted EBITDA to $30 billion," Tan concluded. Stock reaction Shares of Broadcom ended the day up by 2.06% on Thursday at $922.26 a share before the latest results were announced. The stock dipped by around 1% in the after-hours trading.
Stock performance 1 month: +0.32% 3 months: +6.69% Year-to-date: +63.53% 1 year: +72.16% Broadcom stock price targets Rosenblatt Securities: $1000 Oppenheimer: $1100 Susquehanna: $1100 KeyCorp: $1200 Evercore ISI: $1050 Truist Financial: $995 Benchmark: $950 TD Cowen: $900 Wells Fargo: $900 Mizuho: $960 Deutsche Bank: $950 Broadcom Inc. is the 20th largest company in the world with a market cap of $378.07 billion. You can trade Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Broadcom Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
