市场资讯及洞察

石油市场习惯于在停止结算之前就看上去已经定下来了。这就是现在的设置。
随着伊朗周边冲突的加剧,霍尔木兹海峡的交通量急剧下降,越来越多的船只因关闭AIS或自动识别系统而陷入黑暗,这些信号通常显示船只在哪里移动。霍尔木兹不只是另一条航道。它是世界上最重要的能源阻塞点之一,因此,当能见度开始消失时,供应风险就会回到对话的中心。
为什么现在这很重要
这很重要,有两个原因。
头条新闻是一回事。市场影响是另一回事。石油不仅关乎有多少桶,还关系到这些桶能否流动,谁愿意为它们投保,买家准备等待多长时间,以及交易者认为他们需要在多大风险的基础上定价。
目前,有三件事同时发生冲突:航运中断、外交脆弱以及市场已经严重倾向于一个方向。这种组合可以使布伦特原油的走势比基本面本身通常所暗示的要快。
是什么推动了这一举动
1 供应能见度恶化
第一个驱动程序很简单。市场看得更少,这往往会让市场更加紧张。
通过霍尔木兹的过境量急剧下降,而越来越多的交通量涉及不再广播标准跟踪信号的船只。简而言之,正常通过重要走廊的船只越来越少,越来越多的活动也变得越来越难以追踪。这并不自动意味着供应即将崩溃。但这确实意味着不确定性正在上升。
2 伊朗的储存缓冲区可能有限
第二个驱动因素是伊朗的出口和储存限制。
陆上储存容量估计约为4000万桶,市场正在关注有人所说的16天红线。到那时,长期的出口中断可能会开始迫使减产,以避免对储油库造成损害。对于新读者来说,要点很简单。如果石油不能储存足够长的时间,问题可能不再是出口延迟,而是开始成为真正的供应问题。
3 定位可以放大移动
第三个驱动因素是定位,这只是市场简写,说明在下一步行动发生之前交易者已经如何进行设置。
在这种情况下,投机性原油头寸显得严重片面。这很重要,因为当市场向一个方向倾斜得太远时,触发急剧调整并不需要太多时间。新的地缘政治冲击可能迫使交易者迅速采取行动,而一旦开始,价格的上涨幅度可能会超过单纯基础新闻所能证明的合理性。
为什么市场在乎
石油冲击很少能在能源市场内得到控制。
较高的原油价格可能会开始出现在运费、制造业和家庭能源账单中。这意味着通货膨胀预期可能会再次开始攀升。各国央行已经在努力管理粘性通货膨胀和疲软增长之间的艰难平衡,因此石油价格上涨会使这项工作变得更加艰难。
这不仅仅是一个关于石油生产商获得提振的故事。当能源成本上升时,航空公司、运输公司和其他对燃料敏感的企业可能会迅速承受压力。如果石油价格上涨使通货膨胀保持强于预期,则更广泛的股市可能还必须重新考虑政策前景。
连锁反应远不止石油
还有一个货币角度,它不如最初出现的那么简单。
当原材料价格上涨时,与大宗商品挂钩的货币,例如澳元,通常会获得支撑。但是这种关系不是自动的。如果石油价格因为全球需求改善而攀升,那可能会有所帮助。如果由于地缘政治风险激增而攀升,则市场可能会转向避险模式,即使大宗商品价格上涨,这也可能打压澳元。
这就是让这种举动比乍一看更有趣的原因。同样的石油涨势可以支撑市场的一个部分,同时给另一部分带来压力。
框架中的资产和名称
布伦特原油仍然是广泛供应风险中最明显的解读。如果交易者想要最简洁的头条新闻表达,通常是他们首先看的地方。
- 埃克森美孚是画面中最明显的名字之一。油价上涨可以支撑已实现的销售价格和短期的盈利势头,尽管这从来都不像石油上涨、囤积那么简单。成本、生产结构和更广泛的情绪仍然很重要。
- NexTera Energy 又增加了一层。这个故事不仅仅是关于化石燃料的。当能源安全成为一个更大的问题时,国内电力弹性、电网投资和替代发电的理由也将得到加强。
- 澳元/美元是另一个值得关注的市场。澳大利亚与大宗商品周期密切相关,因此原材料价格走强有时可以支撑该货币。但是,如果市场对恐惧的反应大于对增长的反应,那么通常的顺风可能不会成立。
对于新读者来说,关键是石油走势不会以整齐的、可预测的线条在市场中传播。它们不均匀地向外波动,帮助某些资产,给其他资产施加压力,有时两者兼而有之。
可能会出什么问题
强烈的叙述与单向交易不同。
停火可以比预期更快地稳定航运。欧佩克+可以通过提高产量来抵消部分紧张局势。来自中国的需求数据可能会令人失望,将焦点转移到消费疲软而不是供应受限上。而且,如果地缘政治溢价消退,石油回落的速度可能比当前情绪所暗示的要快。
对于新读者来说,要点很简单。石油涨势可以是真实的,但不是永久性的。短期内,中断风险可能证明此举是合理的,然后如果这些风险缓解或需求疲软,则迅速逆转。
市场不再孤立地对石油进行定价。这是定价可见性、运输安全性以及供应中断蔓延到通货膨胀、货币和更广泛的风险情绪中的风险。
这就是为什么Hormuz很重要,即使对于从未自己交易过一桶原油的读者来说也是如此。


Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) released Q3 financial results before the market open in the US on Wednesday. The US retail giant beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the previous quarter, sending the stock higher. Company overview Founded: June 24, 1902 Headquarters: Target Plaza Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 440,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Brian Cornell (Chairman & CEO) The results Target reported revenue of $25.398 billion for Q3 (down by 4.2% from the same period in 2022) vs. $25.285 billion estimate, according to TradingView.
EPS reported at $2.10 per share (up by 35.9% year-over-year), exceeding analyst estimate of $1.474 per share. CEO commentary "In the third quarter, our team continued to successfully navigate our business through a very challenging external environment. While third quarter sales were consistent with our expectations, earnings per share came in far ahead of our forecast.
This profit performance benefited from our team's commitment to efficiency and disciplined inventory management, and I'd like to thank them for their tireless efforts. Looking ahead, we're continuing to make investments throughout our business -- in our assortment, our team and the services we offer -- to provide the newness, affordability and convenience our guests want during the holiday season and beyond," company CEO, Brian Cornell commented on the latest results and future plans. The stock was up by over 16% after posting better-than-expected results.
Shares were trading at around $129.55 – the highest level since 18/8/2023. Stock performance 1 month: +17.13% 3 months: +0.26% Year-to-date: -13.39% 1 year: -16.97% Target price targets Jefferies: $135 Telsey Advisory Group: $145 Tigress Financial: $180 Evercore ISI Group: $130 B of A Securities: $135 Truist Securities: $116 Stifel: $130 HSBC: $140 Morgan Stanley: $140 Target Corporation is the 270th largest company in the world with a market cap of $59.61 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Target Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia

Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) released its latest financial results before the opening bell in the US on Tuesday, beating analyst estimates for the third quarter. Company overview Founded: February 6, 1978 Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia, United States Number of employees: 471,600 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: Ted Decker (President & CEO), Craig Menear (Chairman) The results The US retailer reported revenue of $37.71 billion (down by 3% year-over-year) for Q3 vs. $37.591 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $3.81 per share (down by 10.14% year-over-year), above $3.755 per share estimate.
CEO commentary "Our quarterly performance was in line with our expectations," Ted Decker, CEO of Home Depot said in a press release to investors. "Similar to the second quarter, we saw continued customer engagement with smaller projects, and experienced pressure in certain big-ticket, discretionary categories. We remain very excited about our strategic initiatives and are committed to investing in the business to deliver the best interconnected shopping experience, capture wallet share with the Pro, and grow our store footprint. In addition, our associates did an outstanding job delivering value and service for our customers throughout the quarter and I would like to thank them for their dedication and hard work," Decker added.
Shares of Home Depot rose by over 6% on Tuesday after the latest earnings results. The stock was trading at $307.06 a share – the highest level since 25/9/2023. Stock performance 1 month: +3.58% 3 months: -7.71% Year-to-date: -2.95% 1 year: -1.73% Home Depot price targets Stifel: $306 RBC Capital: $303 Truist Securities: $341 HSBC: $365 Jefferies: $384 Morgan Stanley: $350 Wedbush: $350 Wells Fargo: $360 Barclays: $333 JP Morgan: $335 Goldman Sachs: $350 Home Depot Inc. is the 26th largest company in the world with a market cap of $307 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Home Depot Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, Benzinga, Stock Analysis


USD rallied strongly in Thursday’s session after a quiet start following dismal demand for US 30 year-treasuries at a scheduled bond auction, seeing yields surge and taking the USD with them. The push higher was later given an extra boost by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish statements during a panel organized by the IMF. In a scheduled panel chat the FOMC head said that “policymakers are not confident that they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance to return inflation to the 2.0% target in a sustained manner.” That was enough to see the USD bulls take charge with DXY up 0.4% for the day, while yields also spiked, this saw some volatility in USD cross pairs and gold we’ll look at the highlights in the charts below.
USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USDJPY pulled back last week after the BoJ tweak to their YCC saw Japanese bond yields rise, giving the Yen a boost. However, as has been the case with this pair in the last 12 months the uptrend quickly resumed, with USDJPY breaking back above the key 151 level and heading towards its 2022 and 2023 high of 151.72. At these levels there is always the threat of a BoJ currency intervention, so traders will need to keep an ear out for any jawboning from BoJ members telegraphing such a move.
If the BoJ steps aside a test of the upper trend line at 154 could be a possibility. If they do step in we could see a decline to a 146 handle and lower trendline before finding any technical support. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has reversed lower this week after the upward momentum failed at the key 2010 resistance level.
Risk premium priced into gold also started to unwind after gaza conflict haven flows pushed the price rapidly higher from early October. Thursday session did see a modest bounce, despite a rampant USD which could give the bulls some hope, however the 23.6 Fib level, which acted as short-term support on the way down now seems to have switched to resistance. This will be the level on the upside to watch (1963.78), the next resistance from a technical point of view will be the 2010 level.
To the downside the 38.2 Fib at 1934.79, which also matches up with the 200 day SMA looks to be the first real support level.


AUDUSD dropped in Tuesday’s session with AUD being weighed on post-RBA decision, as the less hawkish RBA guidance outweighed the widely anticipated 25bps hike to 4.35%. Though the market reaction was a little curious given the small changes to the accompanying statement hardly made it dovish. The RBA changed its forward guidance to say "whether further tightening of monetary policy is required...will depend upon the data" from the previous “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required".
The push lower was also exacerbated by based weakness in the commodity space after a miss in Chinese trade data. Looking at the chart for trading opportunities we can see AUDUSD is trading in a defined range with major resistance at the 0.6500 level and major support at 0.6300 which opens up range trading opportunities with defined stop losses above or below these key levels, another key level is 0.6400 being the mid-price of the range and a level that price has chopped around recently. I think we are likely to see a bit more weakness in AUD on the back of the RBA and risk premiums coming out of gold and oil putting pressure on those commodities.
USDJPY continues to drift higher above the key 150 level into past intervention territory after the dip last week after the BoJ tweaked their YCC to extend the band, allowing Japanese yields to move higher and giving support the Yen. The drop in US yields over the past week and the modest gains in Japanese yields has seen the US 10-year / Japanese 10-year rate differential fall steeply, this rate differential has been a key driver of the USDJPY rate. However, as seen on the chart below USDJPY is remaining stubbornly high despite this, with a decent gap opening up between the rate differential and USDJPY rate.
Whether this gap “fills” i.e. a drop in USDJPY to reflect this rate differential is the question, going from the recent past it would look likely unless we see another leg higher in US yields. For Yen traders the October BoJ SOO released on Thursday will be the next decent data point to keep an eye on.


AUDUSD AUD saw gains to come within a whisker of the key 0.64 level, after hawkish leaning commentary from RBA Assistant Governor Kohler, who noted the decline in inflation is more gradual than previously thought. The Aussie also helped by a weaker USD and improved risk sentiment. The 0.64 level will be key in the near term as the mid-point of AUDUSD 3-month trading range is likely to act as resistance and support and will dictate which side of the range AUDUSD will be testing next.
USDJPY USDJPY rose to fresh peaks of 151.92 before a sharp move lower in the cross was observed without any clear catalyst which of course generated suspicions of intervention, especially given the move happened around 10am EDT, where intervention has occurred before. Also adding to the intervention narrative was comments from Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki during the Asian session where he spoke of “undesirable moves in the FX market”. USDJPY fell sharply from 151.92 to 151.19 but did retrace back to 151.70 after the dust settled, if this was a BoJ intervention it seems the 152 level may be the line in the sand and one to watch closely for Yen traders.
XAUUSD Gold rallied on Monday, recouping around half of Fridays losses after finding support at its the Oct lows to highs 38.2 fib retracement level which also matches up with the 200-day SMA. A weaker USD and falling yields also giving gold a boost along with residual safe haven demand.


Last week’s action in the FX markets was shaped by a pushback by the Fed chair Jerome Powell and assorted other Fed members on markets pricing in a less hawkish Fed going forward. What was seen as a dovish FOMC and a big miss in NFP the week before saw traders piling back into risk assets with traders hoping for a less aggressive Fed, it seemed pushback from Powell and company was inevitable, and pushback we got with a slew of hawkish comments from the Fed chair and his colleagues. USDOLLAR Last week’s fluctuations in the USD highlighted the influence of yields as the US Dollar index tracked the US 10-year yield almost tick for tick.
Key inflation figures from the US this week will test the Feds recent hawkish narrative with US CPI figures out on Tuesday and PPI out on Thursday. The US dollar index did stage a comeback last week, whether that comeback continues this week will be shaped by these figures one would expect. GBPUSD In the UK the recent hold in rates by the BoE has traders feeling that their rate hiking cycle is done and dusted with market pricing favouring another hold at the BoE December meeting with only a 9% chance priced in of a hike.
Sterling traders this week will be watching employment data out on Tuesday, UK CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday. It would take some big beats to move the needle on rate hike expectations, but with limited data left after this week before the banks next meeting, these readings will take on extra importance. GBPUSD has been trading in an upward sloping channel since late September, the levels to watch over these announcements will be support at the lower band around 1.2170 and resistance at the top band around 1.2470.
AUDUSD The Aussie took a beating last week after what was widely seen as a dovish rate hike out of the RBA on Tuesday, AUDUSD had been testing major resistance at 0.6500 before reversing course and crashing down to 0.6340 by the end of the week. AUDUSD is now in the lower half of its 3-month range and finding some support but Chinese industrial production and Australian wage data on Wednesday along with Australian employment data Thursday could see the key support level at 0.63 is in play if these figures miss expectations. Full calendar of major news releases below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/
