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原本以为经历过庞氏骗局，麦道夫骗局后，投资者们会更加谨慎小心，然后经过了这几年的几个骗局之后，我发现了，无论监管的如何严格，打开骗局之路的往往是人性中的关键点，也是薄弱点之—--信任。简单点说就是人格魅力。故事的一个主角就是Nick Leeson，相比于其他骗局的主角来说，这一位是最平凡的人，并没有极高的学历，也没有天才般的智商。不过他有的却是对于人性的独到理解，他也拥有着很高的情商和极强的社交能力。

尼克出生在赫特福德郡的沃特福德，并就读于附近加斯顿的帕米特学校。出生于一个平凡的工人阶级家庭，在1985年以比较差的成绩毕业，甚至数学还不及格。毕业之后在很小的银行做了几年柜员。然而，虽然能力不行，但是野心很大。于是在1987年进入摩根史坦利，成为了后台，但是在得不到重用后跳槽到了巴林银行(英国最古老的银行)。到了巴林银行之后，尼克持续了在后台的工作。但是因为其天赋异禀的社交能力，成功的于1992年成为了巴林银行在新加坡金融衍生品业务的负责人。一开始在一系列激进的交易策略下，为巴林银行赚取了约1000万英镑的巨额利润。但是在新手光环用尽之后，开始了亏损，凭借多年做后台的经验，于是就把这些亏损放进了一个自己做的error account 里面。这个账户最初是用来掩盖他的一个下属犯的错误；当时那个下属被指派为富士银行购买20份期货合约，但他却卖掉了它们，导致巴林银行损失了20,000 英镑。于是通过这个账户，尼克让这个损失给“消失”了，等之后赚了钱，就可把这个窟窿给填平。尼克采取的是“翻倍”策略:每次他输了钱，他都会把输掉的钱加倍下注，以挽回损失。而每次亏损，尼克都向伦敦总部要钱，利用管理层对他的信任，以各种名义说服了管理层。过往经历告诉他这个是可行的，包括1993 年的一次，他为了能够弥补error account中 600 万英镑的亏损，进行了一波豪赌，然而因为好运，使得亏损都补上了，之后他其实有发誓不再使用该账户。但是，我们都知道，人类最大的弱点就是人性中的贪欲。尼克心想，既然我可以把600万的窟窿填上，那么说明我也可以再赚600万。于是error账户并没有消失，反而愈演愈烈。到 1992 年底，错误账户的损失超过200 万英镑，到1993 年底增加到2300 万英镑。到1994 年底，这个数字激增到2.08 亿英镑。后来不是没有人怀疑他，而他每次都靠着很好的声誉而躲过了一次又一次审查。并且还通过和error账户的对冲，使得自己的期货账户实现了超过2000万英镑的巨额浮盈，结果就是error账户出现巨额亏损。

但是在1995年，1月16日，为了一波肥，填平error account 亏损，尼克进行大举做空了日经股指期货straddle，就是如果日本股市波动不剧烈，他会赚钱，如果出现日内剧烈波动，则巨亏。然而事情就是那么巧，在第二天17号发生阪神大地震，亚洲市场陷入恐慌，日本股市开始剧烈波动。然后Leeson试图通过进行一系列风险越来越大的新交易（使用多头未来套利）来弥补损失，这次押注日经指数将迅速复苏。然而，没有了新手光环的尼克这次输的很彻底，日经指数并没有复苏，反而跌的更惨，尼克和他的账户直接被干废。

于是在留下了一张“I am sorry”字条后，就跑路了。这位年轻的交易员，凭借着人格魅力和豪赌，终于让巴林银行损失了8.27亿英镑（ 14 亿美元），终于这所曾经是英国历史最悠久的商业银行的巴林银行于2 月 26 日被宣布破产，并被收购。尼克自己和巴林银行的虚荣心在作祟也是其中的导火索。对于巴林银行来说，其实可能内部人员有人其实已经意识到有问题，因为在毫无对冲的情况下，可以创造如此高额盈利，对于一个数学都不及格的人来说，本来就不太现实，但是名誉面前，管理层“护犊子”般选择了沉默。对于尼克本身来说，在自己实力不足的情况下，因为也是虚荣心和贪欲的作祟，才一步步走向了万劫不复的深渊。在这起事件中，不乏有管理层的疏忽，但是更多的，就是对个人的盲目信任，才导致了惨剧的发生。那么信任，或者说人格魅力，是不是逐渐成为了近些年来投资的主旋律？也成为了很多骗局钻空子的温室？

之后也会和大家聊聊近年来，很出名的诈骗案件，比如FTX崩盘，Theranos验血骗局等等，并且深入探讨一下，人格魅力，是不是已经成为一种投资风向标？免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Neo Yuan | GO Markets 助理分析师

The EUR has been on a run since it bottomed in September 2022. From that time, the price is up almost 15% and is currently trading at 1.0863. However, with important economic data to come out of the USA and the next interest rate decision from both the ECB and the Federal Reserve coming out in the next few days the market may find some more direction for the EUR.

A Hawkish Federal Reserve may be detrimental for a move to the upside of the EUR, whilst a Dovish response may support more growth in the EUR. In addition, with employment data to come out of the USA softer data may support a more dovish Federal reserve. In the past few days and weeks, the EUR has seen some strong momentum on the back of growth data that has seen the region avoid a recession.

Crucially, the GDP of the Eurozone grew by 0.1% which beat an expected 0.1% retraction for the quarter. A general weakening of the USD has also supported a bounce of the EUR as money has moved away from the safety of the greenback and into other assets. Technical Analysis In terms of the long-term analysis, the price has mostly ranged between 1.04 and 1.25 except when the price bottomed last year.

The price is currently showing some weakness and has so far been unable to break through 1.09 and has sold down on candlesticks that are testing the 1.09 level. Therefore, it would not be surprising to see the price retrace to the previous support level at 1.06 before another move to the upside. On the daily price chart, the price is showing a strong upward channel/trend.

This channel shows how the bottom of the channel fall along an important area of market structure. This zone acts as the 50-day moving average, the recent support level and the bottom of the channel. This bolsters this region as a zone for ana entry should the price retrace.

With a target of 1.12 this represents a risk reward of 2.5. Ultimately the trend of the EUR will most likely be dictated by the movements of the Federal reserve and the ECB. However, should the macroeconomic factors permit, the EUR could very well continue its run.

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热门话题回顾2022年，自三季度开始，欧洲经济下坡，能源价格上涨、欧元对美元汇率跌至平价以下。然而近期，欧洲市场悄然经历了一轮复苏：自年初开始，欧元对美元升至1.09，主要各国国债收益率下跌20-70bp，欧洲股票基准STOXX 600 指数 1 月份上涨约10%，超越美国股票基准标准普尔500 指数。这是否意味着欧洲经济已经出现拐点还是震荡徘徊？今天我们从能源方面来谈谈欧洲的经济情况。

供给压力犹在。俄罗斯对欧洲天然气供应继续威胁欧洲经济增长。继俄乌冲突开始，便加剧了能源紧张的局面，这主要源于欧洲对俄罗斯能源供应的高度依赖。战争爆发后，作为对欧盟对俄制裁的报复，俄罗斯逐渐减少对欧盟国家管道天然气的供应，造成了天然气和电力价格居高不下。俄罗斯目前的供应量为正常的约10%左右，大幅削弱了供给，北溪管道自8月爆炸以来目前供应量仍旧为0。另一方面，欧洲在全球市场大幅采购LNG (液化天然气)，基本应对了俄罗斯天然气的供应冲击，但欧洲的大幅抢购也推高了全球LNG的价格。需求随气温而变。欧洲人自去年以来一直担心冬天的能源供给，然而这个冬天的气温却没有在预料的冰冷之中。欧洲能源消费主要取决于气温的变化，自2022年12月以来，欧洲进入寒冬，英国富时100指数跟着下跌，直到2023年1月天气转暖，整体而言欧洲2022年冬季的温度相比往年要高。自2022年12月开始，欧洲天然气价格已连续近六周下跌，是自2020 年 2 月以来持续时间最长的一次。温暖的气温也使得欧洲天然气消耗量没有以往之大，而保持了库存，欧洲能源危机最严重的时期或已结束。总结来看，能源危机在需求侧得到缓解。能源问题或许只是扬汤止沸。然而，这种趋势是可持续的吗？通过上文的分析我们可以看到供给侧的压力主要来自于俄乌冲突，只要冲突还存在，欧洲对俄罗斯的制裁就存在，也就是说欧洲能源在供给侧仍然存在一定压力。此外，随着欧洲此次大幅采购LNG也暂时在供给端暂时缓解了一定的压力。需求方面来看，今年罕见的暖和的天气也并不一定在23、24年继续存在。综合来看，从能源危机的角度来说，只要俄乌冲突存在，欧洲就继续不得不大幅度采购能源，从而推升价格。而短期来看，随着能源价格的下降，欧洲经济形势确实在逐渐回暖。欧元走势谨慎乐观。除此之外，货币政策方面，本周周四将公布首份利率决议。从当前情况看已形成较强共识将在未来两次议息会议各加息50BP。2022年，欧元区通胀在去年10月曾达到10.6%的历史最高水平，欧洲央行加息累计250个基点以对抗通胀，为历史上最激进的货币紧缩政策。然而，当前欧元利率仍低于美国和英国的利率。从天气转暖到LNG采购再到能源危机缓和，欧元区1月经济信心指数连续第三个月上升，触及6月以来最高水平。从工业到服务业再到消费者信心等所有主要基本指标都上升。一项对经济学家的调研结果显示，即使在能源价格下跌以及美联储考虑放缓甚至暂停加息步伐的情况下，欧洲央行官员们或许不太倾向于在2 月之后放松货币政策，而继续维持50个基点的加息幅度。 然而，由 26 名成员组成的欧洲央行管理委员会中的一些成员表示，他们更愿意采用更加渐进的方法。综合以上分析来看,欧元短期内还是有上涨的动力，中长期需持谨慎乐观的态度继续观望。免责声明：GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人；并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式：墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文） 400 120 8537中国地区(英文） +248 4 671 903作者：Yiduo Wang | GO Markets 助理分析师

US Dollar Fundamental Analysis Recent data indicated that the U.S. economy grew strongly in the fourth quarter which has boosted the Dollar against the Euro. This has supported the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance in spite of reports that US consumer spending has fallen, and inflation has cooled. According to the Commerce Department, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, increased 0.1% in November after a similar gain the month before.

With traders eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve's guidance for interest rate rises, the Dollar firmed on Monday and distanced itself from an eight-month trough. Despite last week's eight-month low of 101.50, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.03% to 101.92. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis The Dollar Index is currently testing a major support area taken from the weekly time frame, around $101.55.

It has been consolidating and testing the area for almost 10 days, strongly suggesting that bulls are starting to take back control of the market after a steady decline of roughly -4% in the last 4 weeks. In alignment with the weekly analysis, on the daily timeframe, a trend line from the lower lows can be drawn, and from the chart below, the price has recently reached the bottom of the trend line. The price has consolidated for a number of days at the weekly support level mentioned earlier.

The Dollar may potentially climb towards the resistance level at $104, if it remains above and respects the bottom of the channel.

Bitcoin has rallied extremely hard to start the year as risk on sentiment returned to begin the year with the price of the leading cryptocurrency at its highest level since August of 2022. Risk assets have been the play in early 2023 with hopes for a settling of interest rate hikes by major central banks. As the technology sector and other growth areas have continued to rise up the price of Bitcoin has followed.

The price is almost 50% up from its lows in the middle of December 2022. With the macroeconomic factors still largely the main drivers of the risk sentiment and the upcoming Federal Reserve Funds to be announced on Thursday, the rate announcement could play a large role in the short term price action. The Fed is expected to increase the official rate by 25 bps.

However, all eyes will be on the accompanying commentary that will provide important direction on the Fed’s future plans in the upcoming months. Moreover, a hawkish commentary will likely lead to a selloff in risk assets and dovish commentary the opposite. In terms of the long term perspective the price of Bitcoin has had its best month since October 2021.

The price has made a significant bounce off the 15,000-20,000 support zone and looks to have reclaimed the 50 month moving average. This indicates a potential reversal or at least shift in sentiment. The next region of resistance is the original neckline of the long-term double top, between $30,000 and $40,000.

It may be difficult for the price to break above this resistance in the short term without a catalyst. The other thing to remember is that there is a lot of supply that still needs to be worked through before any significant move upward can occur, although, the monthly candle is looking very encouraging. This next zone of resistance looks to be the primary target in the short to medium term for a long trade on Bitcoin.

Looking at the shorter term charts, they price actions tells a similar story. Specifically, on the daily chart, the price has seemingly paused as it awaits confirmation of a breakout at 25,000. If this breakout can be supported by some significant volume it may confirm the reversal.

The other element that must be considered with Bitcoin is the potential for a short squeeze. With the asset so beaten down, it is possible that shorts will become squeezed leading to aggressive moves to the upside if momentum can begin to build. Ultimately, the price action of Bitcoin will most likely be led by the overall risk sentiment in the market and as such traders should be weary of the overall market sentiment.