市场资讯及洞察

当特朗普政府在 2 月底将全球关税推高至 15%、中东地缘政治风险再次燃起,且凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)的美联储主席提名向债市发出鹰派震慑时,黄金表现出了它在压力时期应有的姿态:应声上涨
比特币的表现则截然不同——它紧随纳斯达克的跌势。从 2025 年 10 月超过 126,000 美元 的巅峰起步,到 3 月初已暴跌近 50%,回落至 60,000 美元上方。这种走势的分化才是重点:黄金表现得更像避难所,而比特币则像是一个捆绑了额外杠杆的高贝塔(High-beta)科技股。
对于差价合约(CFD)交易者——即那些通过杠杆博取价差而非持有实物的投资者来说,这种区别并非学术讨论,它直接揭示了当你进入这两个市场时,你交易的本质究竟是什么。
驱动力分析
黄金正同时受到三股力量的推动:全球央行的持续囤积、投资者对冲货币贬值的需求,以及针对关税政策和地缘政治新闻的响应式避险资金流入。
比特币的驱动因素显得更为复杂且充满“噪音”,尤其是考虑到它仍受惠于机构化的渗透、现货 ETF 的支撑,以及那套关于“数字黄金”的长盛不衰的叙事。然而,其短期价格逻辑已日益转向由杠杆水平主导。量化风控柜台(Algorithmic risk desks)如今已将比特币与科技权益类资产划入同一“风险池”。因此,每当华尔街的“恐惧指标” VIX 飙升时,这些交易模型往往会自动触发对比特币敞口的减持。这种抛售是机械化的程序反应,而非投资逻辑层面的根本动摇。
市场为何关注
这正解释了为什么两类通常都被冠以“避险资产”头衔的标的,却可能在同一天呈现出截然相反的走势。
CFD 交易员观察要点
黄金的问题在于,这一轮涨势目前显得有些“力竭”。1 月份那几个交易日内约 14% 的跌幅提醒了我们:拥挤交易 (Crowded trades) 是一把双刃剑,尤其是当杠杆机构需要套现筹措资金,并不得不抛售手中流动性最好的资产时。比特币可能在短短一小时内波动数个百分点,而其原因可能与当早宏观新闻中的叙事毫无关系。而在 CFD 杠杆的加持下,这种波动性会在多空两个方向上被同步放大。
哪些变数可能扭转局面?

Vee Leung Phan ( @TrackRecordAsia ) is the Founder of TrackRecord Asia and former Head of Trading across multiple divisions for Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley. TrackRecord Asia is a financial training academy for trading teams in banks and professional traders – designed to teach you the frameworks learnt in his days across first-class institutions. In this follow-up episode from Season 1, we covered: TrackRecord Asia Philosophy & Risk management His approach to trading Global state of affairs Hong Kong protests & China

Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics, a boutique research, analysis and consulting firm. This former consultant of Booz Allen & Fujitsu Australia pedigree is well known for his level-headed approach to financial markets & the economy. His Walk The World channel on YouTube is a must for astute economy watchers in Australia.
While his commentary is highly regarded across mainstream media such as the AFR, Sydney Morning Herald, the ABC, 9News and many more. In this episode we covered: Growing up in UK & early memories His career path and insight, corporate consulting The state of Australia’s economy, housing sector Productive vs. non-value adding investments His first 90 days as Prime Minister; and His take on crypto.

Holding over 11 years of experience as both a trader and educator, Craig has always been the type to distil noise into digestible information. He is one of the most original & astute Australian commentators from the early days of the industry and with that comes a wealth of market experience. Well known for his institutional background, Craig has helped many in the crypto space navigate this fascinating new world with a framework that can be applied to all asset classes.
In this episode we covered: Chronic fatigue syndrome How he got into trading Successes and failures The state of crypto; and Cobb’s trading principles

Daryl Guppy is the founder of GuppyTraders.com, Commentator for CNBC Asia, Author of multiple books on trading including Share Trading, Bear Trading and Trading Asian Shares. He is one of the most original and astute Australian commentators from the early days of the industry and with that comes a wealth of market experience. In this episode we covered: China and his experience How he got into financial markets Technical charting, Fundamental analysis How Guppytraders.com started; and Perception of China and the Trade Wars.

Rupert Hackett is the Co-Founder and Advisor at Caleb & Brown, while also a Director at ADCA (Australia Digital Commerce Association). Caleb & Brown is Australia’s first cryptocurrency brokerage, and Rupert is undoubtedly one of the best minds when it comes to local industry governance in Australia. This was a great chat on the developments in the world of cryptocurrency on the client side on the business.
In this episode we covered: OTC, Caleb & Brown Crypto, consulting, and risk How exchanges and settlements work Client demographics and acquisition; and The global crypto market & analytics.

Damien Loh is the Chief Investment Officer of Ensemble Capital, and former Executive Director at J.P. Morgan Singapore. Ensemble Capital is a fund manager focused on global absolute returns, through an AI & human investing approach in Singapore.
Damien is a super fascinating guy with a long career ahead of him in this new world of AI-driven investments. In this episode we covered: Insight from his time at J.P. Morgan How he got into finance and trading Ensemble Capital, the AI system Investment time frames How they approach risk
