市场资讯及洞察

石油市场习惯于在停止结算之前就看上去已经定下来了。这就是现在的设置。
随着伊朗周边冲突的加剧,霍尔木兹海峡的交通量急剧下降,越来越多的船只因关闭AIS或自动识别系统而陷入黑暗,这些信号通常显示船只在哪里移动。霍尔木兹不只是另一条航道。它是世界上最重要的能源阻塞点之一,因此,当能见度开始消失时,供应风险就会回到对话的中心。
为什么现在这很重要
这很重要,有两个原因。
头条新闻是一回事。市场影响是另一回事。石油不仅关乎有多少桶,还关系到这些桶能否流动,谁愿意为它们投保,买家准备等待多长时间,以及交易者认为他们需要在多大风险的基础上定价。
目前,有三件事同时发生冲突:航运中断、外交脆弱以及市场已经严重倾向于一个方向。这种组合可以使布伦特原油的走势比基本面本身通常所暗示的要快。
是什么推动了这一举动
1 供应能见度恶化
第一个驱动程序很简单。市场看得更少,这往往会让市场更加紧张。
通过霍尔木兹的过境量急剧下降,而越来越多的交通量涉及不再广播标准跟踪信号的船只。简而言之,正常通过重要走廊的船只越来越少,越来越多的活动也变得越来越难以追踪。这并不自动意味着供应即将崩溃。但这确实意味着不确定性正在上升。
2 伊朗的储存缓冲区可能有限
第二个驱动因素是伊朗的出口和储存限制。
陆上储存容量估计约为4000万桶,市场正在关注有人所说的16天红线。到那时,长期的出口中断可能会开始迫使减产,以避免对储油库造成损害。对于新读者来说,要点很简单。如果石油不能储存足够长的时间,问题可能不再是出口延迟,而是开始成为真正的供应问题。
3 定位可以放大移动
第三个驱动因素是定位,这只是市场简写,说明在下一步行动发生之前交易者已经如何进行设置。
在这种情况下,投机性原油头寸显得严重片面。这很重要,因为当市场向一个方向倾斜得太远时,触发急剧调整并不需要太多时间。新的地缘政治冲击可能迫使交易者迅速采取行动,而一旦开始,价格的上涨幅度可能会超过单纯基础新闻所能证明的合理性。
为什么市场在乎
石油冲击很少能在能源市场内得到控制。
较高的原油价格可能会开始出现在运费、制造业和家庭能源账单中。这意味着通货膨胀预期可能会再次开始攀升。各国央行已经在努力管理粘性通货膨胀和疲软增长之间的艰难平衡,因此石油价格上涨会使这项工作变得更加艰难。
这不仅仅是一个关于石油生产商获得提振的故事。当能源成本上升时,航空公司、运输公司和其他对燃料敏感的企业可能会迅速承受压力。如果石油价格上涨使通货膨胀保持强于预期,则更广泛的股市可能还必须重新考虑政策前景。
连锁反应远不止石油
还有一个货币角度,它不如最初出现的那么简单。
当原材料价格上涨时,与大宗商品挂钩的货币,例如澳元,通常会获得支撑。但是这种关系不是自动的。如果石油价格因为全球需求改善而攀升,那可能会有所帮助。如果由于地缘政治风险激增而攀升,则市场可能会转向避险模式,即使大宗商品价格上涨,这也可能打压澳元。
这就是让这种举动比乍一看更有趣的原因。同样的石油涨势可以支撑市场的一个部分,同时给另一部分带来压力。
框架中的资产和名称
布伦特原油仍然是广泛供应风险中最明显的解读。如果交易者想要最简洁的头条新闻表达,通常是他们首先看的地方。
- 埃克森美孚是画面中最明显的名字之一。油价上涨可以支撑已实现的销售价格和短期的盈利势头,尽管这从来都不像石油上涨、囤积那么简单。成本、生产结构和更广泛的情绪仍然很重要。
- NexTera Energy 又增加了一层。这个故事不仅仅是关于化石燃料的。当能源安全成为一个更大的问题时,国内电力弹性、电网投资和替代发电的理由也将得到加强。
- 澳元/美元是另一个值得关注的市场。澳大利亚与大宗商品周期密切相关,因此原材料价格走强有时可以支撑该货币。但是,如果市场对恐惧的反应大于对增长的反应,那么通常的顺风可能不会成立。
对于新读者来说,关键是石油走势不会以整齐的、可预测的线条在市场中传播。它们不均匀地向外波动,帮助某些资产,给其他资产施加压力,有时两者兼而有之。
可能会出什么问题
强烈的叙述与单向交易不同。
停火可以比预期更快地稳定航运。欧佩克+可以通过提高产量来抵消部分紧张局势。来自中国的需求数据可能会令人失望,将焦点转移到消费疲软而不是供应受限上。而且,如果地缘政治溢价消退,石油回落的速度可能比当前情绪所暗示的要快。
对于新读者来说,要点很简单。石油涨势可以是真实的,但不是永久性的。短期内,中断风险可能证明此举是合理的,然后如果这些风险缓解或需求疲软,则迅速逆转。
市场不再孤立地对石油进行定价。这是定价可见性、运输安全性以及供应中断蔓延到通货膨胀、货币和更广泛的风险情绪中的风险。
这就是为什么Hormuz很重要,即使对于从未自己交易过一桶原油的读者来说也是如此。


World’s largest healthcare company, UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH), reported fourth quarter and 2023 full-year financial results on Friday. The company achieved revenue of $94.427 billion for Q4 of 2023 (up by 14% vs. Q4 2022) vs. $92.126 billion expected.
Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $6.16 per share vs. estimate of $5.985 per share. Full-year revenue reached $371.6 billion, up by 15% vs. 2022. EPS reported at $25.12 per share, up by 13.2% year-over-year.
Company’s medical costs rose by 16.1% from $53.591 billion to $62.231 billion. Company overview Founded: 1977 Headquarters: Minnetonka, Minnesota, United States Number of employees: 440,000 (2023) Industry: Managed healthcare, insurance Key people: Stephen J. Hemsley (Chair), Andrew Witty (CEO), Dirk McMahon (President, COO), John Rex (CFO) CEO commentary "UnitedHealth Group enters 2024 well prepared to build on our efforts to improve patient care and consumer experiences broadly, and to continue delivering strong and balanced growth," Andrew Witty, CEO of the company highlighted on what the company is focusing on in the year ahead.
Stock reaction Shares of UnitedHealth were down by around 3% on Friday despite beating analyst estimates for the quarter due to rising operating costs. Stock performance 5 day: -3.16% 1 month: -2.02% 3 months: -3.52% Year-to-date: -1.15% 1 year: +6.30% UnitedHealth stock price targets HSBC: $480 Stephens: $585 Truist Financial: $610 Royal Bank of Canada: $596 Jefferies Financial Group: $503 Morgan Stanley: $579 Piper Sandler: $584 UBS Group: $640 Deutsche Bank: $555 TD Cowen: $555 JP Morgan: $532 Wells Fargo: $561 Mizuho: 549 UnitedHealth Group Inc. is the 15th largest company in the world with a market cap of $481.23 billion. You can trade UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
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US financial services company, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), announced Q4 2023 and full year financial results before the US open on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley reported revenue of $12.896 billion for the previous quarter, narrowly beating analyst estimate of $12.773 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) fell well short of Wall Street expectations at $0.85 vs. $1.074 per share expected.
The company achieved revenue for $54.1 billion in 2023. EPS reached $5.18 per share. Company overview Founded: 1935 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 80,257 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: James P.
Gorman (Executive Chairman), Ted Pick (CEO), Andy Saperstein (Co-President), Dan Simkowitz (Co-President), Sharon Yeshaya (CFO) CEO commentary "In 2023, the Firm reported a solid ROTCE* against a mixed market backdrop and a number of headwinds. We begin 2024 with a clear and consistent business strategy and a unified leadership team. We are focused on achieving our long-term financial goals and continuing to deliver for shareholders," CEO of Morgan Stanley, Ted Pick, commented on the results in a statement to shareholders. *Return on tangible equity Stock reaction The stock was down by over 4% after the announcement of the latest results.
Shares were trading at $85.80 a share – the lowest level in over a month. Stock performance 5 day: -7.92% 1 month: -5.13% 3 months: +9.36% Year-to-date: -7.67% 1 year: -6.07% Morgan Stanley stock price targets HSBC: $96 JP Morgan: $94 UBS Group: $95 Bank of America: $100 Barclays: $116 Royal Bank of Canada: $85 Goldman Sachs: $100 Societe Generale: $80 BNP Paribas: $85 Oppenheimer: $103 Evercore: $97 Morgan Stanley is the 88th largest company in the world with a market cap of $141.14 billion. You can trade Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Morgan Stanley, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


Since reaching a local bottom in October of last year, XAUUSD has experienced a strong uptrend of over 13%. Closing its third consecutive positive session, Gold is inching closer to its all-time high, now sitting just above $2,050 USD per ounce. From a technical standpoint, Gold is following a well-defined rising channel that has been predominantly respected since November 2023.
As the price approaches the midpoint of this channel, there is a possibility, especially on lower time frames, that this point may act as temporary resistance. This is a crucial level to monitor closely. Image: GOLD Chart The recent positive momentum in XAUUSD is closely tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The enduring conflict between Gaza and Israel, coupled with the initiation of a new US-led conflict in Yemen against the Houthis, has contributed to the precious metal's strength. The current economic landscape in the United States, along with projections for rate cuts in 2024, also is playing a pivotal role in Gold's recent performance. In response to US inflation climbing from nearly 0% to a peak of 9.10% in July 2022, the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times.
The rates have surged from 0.25% to the current 5.50%. Image: CPI and Federal Funds Rate (FFR) Chart Data suggests the possibility of multiple rate cuts in 2024, with some anticipating cuts as early as the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to CME data, market expectations indicate a projection of six rate cuts for 2024, culminating in an effective rate of approximately 3.50-3.75% by year-end.
Image: CME FedWatch Historically, the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like Gold tends to rise when interest rates decrease, contributing to the recent upward trajectory of Gold prices. Gold traders will be closely monitoring the evolving tensions in the Middle East and upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This scrutiny aims to draw insights into the potential timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts and their subsequent impact on Gold's market dynamics.


A hotter than expected CPI reading out of the UK along with a beat in US retail sales saw global markets turn risk off as rates markets hawkishly re-priced chances of cuts coming from Central Banks. The unwinding of priced in Fed cuts saw a spike in treasury yields and the USD bid, with DXY hitting a high of 103.69 after the December US retail sales report came in hotter than expected. DXY finding resistance at the July-October 50% Fib level before paring gains.
GBP saw decent gains vs the USD and EUR after a beat in the December UK CPI reading where the Y/Y figure came in at 4% vs an expected 3.8%. GBPUSD fell just short of breaching the 1.2700 level, hitting a high of 1.2696 as UK rates markets priced in a lower amount of 2024 rate cuts. JPY was weak throughout the session with losses accelerating after the US retail sales report.
USDJPY taking out the big figure at 148 rising in lockstep the US-JP yield differential. On current momentum the psychological 150 level is possibly coming into play, and with it, BoJ intervention speculation. AUDUSD extended January’s losses on the sour risk sentiment and mixed Chinese figures on Wednesday.
The Aussie holding below 0.6600 and dropping to Decembers lows at 0.6520 before finding some support. AUD traders have todays key December employment report to look forward to, after a bumper November reading this one will be watched closely.


Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) announced Q4 2023 financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Friday. The US bank reported revenue that fell short of estimates of $23.5 billion vs. $23.703 billion expected. Earnings per share was reported well below analyst expectations at $0.35 per share vs. $0.533 per share estimate.
Company overview Founded: 1998 (via the merger of BankAmerica & NationsBank), 1956 (as BankAmerica), 1784 (as its predecessor, the Massachusetts Bank, through the merger with FleetBoston in 1999) Headquarters: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States Number of employees: 217,000 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Brian Moynihan (Chairman and CEO), Anne Finucane (Co-Vice chairman), Bruce Thompson (Co-Vice chairman) CEO commentary "We reported solid fourth quarter and full-year results as all our businesses achieved strong organic growth, with record client activity and digital engagement. This activity led to good loan demand and growth in deposits in the quarter and full-year net income of $26.5 billion. Our expense discipline allowed us to continue investing in growth initiatives.
Strong capital and liquidity levels position us well to continue to deliver responsible growth in 2024," CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan said in a press release. Stock reaction The stock was down by just over 1% on Friday at $32.77 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -5.68% 1 month: -3.35% 3 months: +21.36% Year-to-date: -3.55% 1 year: -7.82% Bank of America stock price targets Barclays: $43 Odean Capital Group: $37.94 Goldman Sachs: $33 Oppenheimer: $51 BMO Capital Markets: $40 Jefferies Financial Group: $28 Evercore ISI: $33 Morgan Stanley: $32 Piper Sandler: $27.50 Royal Bank of Canada: $35 HSBC: $35 Wells Fargo: $40 Citigroup: $33 UBS Group: $36 JP Morgan: $34 Bank of America Corp. is the 39th largest company in the world with a market cap of $256.76 billion.
You can trade Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays. Please see specifications section on platform for further details.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Bank of America Corp., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, MarketBeat


热门话题
周三,澳大利亚股市飙升至历史新高,ASX 200 指数当日收盘上涨 1.1%,达到 7680.7 点,比2021 年 8 月创下的上一收盘纪录 7628.9 高出 51.8 点。盘中新高一度触及7682.3。

而澳元对美元不到2小时内暴跌0.6%,累计跌39.4个基点,最低0.65592。

澳洲物价超预期放缓促使澳元短线下跌的主要原因是澳洲通胀超预期放缓至近两年低点4.1%。其实通胀这个话题我们已经聊了2023年一整年了。大家知道澳联储多次的加息就是为了打压物价,抵抗通货膨胀。所以目前的通胀数据超预期放缓对于大家来说应该是个好消息。这代表澳联储今年不仅没有加息的空间,很可能还会开始降息。这对于有房贷压力,以及2023年生活成本增加的大家来说绝对是比较振奋人心的。澳洲下半年可能降息目前市场认为澳联储今年不太可能进一步加息,但是第一次降息也不会太早发生,因为现在通胀下降的速度是达标了,但是澳联储定下的通胀区间是2-3%,目前4.1%的物价水平还是略高了一些。降息可能至少在今年下半年9月份之后开始,到2024年底前,可以期待一下会有两次降息。

GO Markets投资机会解析在2024年降息的大背景下,首先利好的就是股票市场,投资者可以交易我们今天提到的澳股指数,也可以优先关注对利率敏感的公用事业和房地产板块。当然,我们也可以选择交易澳元货币对,目前影响澳元的因素除了今天我们提到 的澳洲不加息,还需要考虑到美国以及中国的经济政策情况。但是可以明确的是,澳元将在区间内运行,因此多空双方都有投资机会。这里可以优先关注澳美及澳日货币对。
