市场资讯及洞察

石油市场习惯于在停止结算之前就看上去已经定下来了。这就是现在的设置。
随着伊朗周边冲突的加剧,霍尔木兹海峡的交通量急剧下降,越来越多的船只因关闭AIS或自动识别系统而陷入黑暗,这些信号通常显示船只在哪里移动。霍尔木兹不只是另一条航道。它是世界上最重要的能源阻塞点之一,因此,当能见度开始消失时,供应风险就会回到对话的中心。
为什么现在这很重要
这很重要,有两个原因。
头条新闻是一回事。市场影响是另一回事。石油不仅关乎有多少桶,还关系到这些桶能否流动,谁愿意为它们投保,买家准备等待多长时间,以及交易者认为他们需要在多大风险的基础上定价。
目前,有三件事同时发生冲突:航运中断、外交脆弱以及市场已经严重倾向于一个方向。这种组合可以使布伦特原油的走势比基本面本身通常所暗示的要快。
是什么推动了这一举动
1 供应能见度恶化
第一个驱动程序很简单。市场看得更少,这往往会让市场更加紧张。
通过霍尔木兹的过境量急剧下降,而越来越多的交通量涉及不再广播标准跟踪信号的船只。简而言之,正常通过重要走廊的船只越来越少,越来越多的活动也变得越来越难以追踪。这并不自动意味着供应即将崩溃。但这确实意味着不确定性正在上升。
2 伊朗的储存缓冲区可能有限
第二个驱动因素是伊朗的出口和储存限制。
陆上储存容量估计约为4000万桶,市场正在关注有人所说的16天红线。到那时,长期的出口中断可能会开始迫使减产,以避免对储油库造成损害。对于新读者来说,要点很简单。如果石油不能储存足够长的时间,问题可能不再是出口延迟,而是开始成为真正的供应问题。
3 定位可以放大移动
第三个驱动因素是定位,这只是市场简写,说明在下一步行动发生之前交易者已经如何进行设置。
在这种情况下,投机性原油头寸显得严重片面。这很重要,因为当市场向一个方向倾斜得太远时,触发急剧调整并不需要太多时间。新的地缘政治冲击可能迫使交易者迅速采取行动,而一旦开始,价格的上涨幅度可能会超过单纯基础新闻所能证明的合理性。
为什么市场在乎
石油冲击很少能在能源市场内得到控制。
较高的原油价格可能会开始出现在运费、制造业和家庭能源账单中。这意味着通货膨胀预期可能会再次开始攀升。各国央行已经在努力管理粘性通货膨胀和疲软增长之间的艰难平衡,因此石油价格上涨会使这项工作变得更加艰难。
这不仅仅是一个关于石油生产商获得提振的故事。当能源成本上升时,航空公司、运输公司和其他对燃料敏感的企业可能会迅速承受压力。如果石油价格上涨使通货膨胀保持强于预期,则更广泛的股市可能还必须重新考虑政策前景。
连锁反应远不止石油
还有一个货币角度,它不如最初出现的那么简单。
当原材料价格上涨时,与大宗商品挂钩的货币,例如澳元,通常会获得支撑。但是这种关系不是自动的。如果石油价格因为全球需求改善而攀升,那可能会有所帮助。如果由于地缘政治风险激增而攀升,则市场可能会转向避险模式,即使大宗商品价格上涨,这也可能打压澳元。
这就是让这种举动比乍一看更有趣的原因。同样的石油涨势可以支撑市场的一个部分,同时给另一部分带来压力。
框架中的资产和名称
布伦特原油仍然是广泛供应风险中最明显的解读。如果交易者想要最简洁的头条新闻表达,通常是他们首先看的地方。
- 埃克森美孚是画面中最明显的名字之一。油价上涨可以支撑已实现的销售价格和短期的盈利势头,尽管这从来都不像石油上涨、囤积那么简单。成本、生产结构和更广泛的情绪仍然很重要。
- NexTera Energy 又增加了一层。这个故事不仅仅是关于化石燃料的。当能源安全成为一个更大的问题时,国内电力弹性、电网投资和替代发电的理由也将得到加强。
- 澳元/美元是另一个值得关注的市场。澳大利亚与大宗商品周期密切相关,因此原材料价格走强有时可以支撑该货币。但是,如果市场对恐惧的反应大于对增长的反应,那么通常的顺风可能不会成立。
对于新读者来说,关键是石油走势不会以整齐的、可预测的线条在市场中传播。它们不均匀地向外波动,帮助某些资产,给其他资产施加压力,有时两者兼而有之。
可能会出什么问题
强烈的叙述与单向交易不同。
停火可以比预期更快地稳定航运。欧佩克+可以通过提高产量来抵消部分紧张局势。来自中国的需求数据可能会令人失望,将焦点转移到消费疲软而不是供应受限上。而且,如果地缘政治溢价消退,石油回落的速度可能比当前情绪所暗示的要快。
对于新读者来说,要点很简单。石油涨势可以是真实的,但不是永久性的。短期内,中断风险可能证明此举是合理的,然后如果这些风险缓解或需求疲软,则迅速逆转。
市场不再孤立地对石油进行定价。这是定价可见性、运输安全性以及供应中断蔓延到通货膨胀、货币和更广泛的风险情绪中的风险。
这就是为什么Hormuz很重要,即使对于从未自己交易过一桶原油的读者来说也是如此。


The largest US retailer of aftermarket automotive parts, AutoZone (NYSE: AZO), released its latest earnings report for its fiscal first quarter that ended on November 18, 2023, before the US market opened on Tuesday. Company overview Founded: July 4, 1979 Headquarters: Memphis, Tennessee, United States Number of employees: 119,000 (2023) Industry: Retail Key people: William C. Rhodes III (Chairman, President, & CEO), Jamere Jackson (CFO) The results AutoZone reported revenue of $4.19 billion for the quarter, slightly beating $4.188 billion estimate.
Earnings per share reached $32.55 per share vs. $31.573 per share expected. The company opened 25 new stores during the quarter in United States, Mexico and Brazil. One store was closed in the United States.
AutoZone has 7,165 stores as of November 18, 2023. CEO commentary "I want to thank all AutoZoners across the company for their efforts during our first fiscal quarter. The commitment to superior service resulted in our ability to deliver strong financial results.
Our domestic sales results were solid despite tough comparisons from a year ago, while our international business continues to deliver exceptionally strong sales growth. We remain committed to driving sales and earnings growth throughout fiscal 2024, while returning cash to our shareholders," William C. Rhodes, CEO of the company said in a letter to investors.
Stock reaction Shares of AutoZone were little changed at the end of Tuesday’s session, ending the day up by 0.26% at $2,671.12 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +0.78% 3 months: +4.50% Year-to-date: +8.31% 1 year: +8.72% AutoZone stock price targets Wedbush: $2750 Truist Financial: $2933 TD Cowen: $2975 Oppenheimer: $2600 Argus: $2920 DA Davidson: $2500 Evercore ISI: $2750 Morgan Stanley: $2750 Barclays: $2742 JP Morgan: $2975 AutoZone Inc. is the 362nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $47.10 billion. You can trade AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: AutoZone Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


US software giant, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE), reported Q4 and fiscal year 2023 financial results after the market close in the US on Wednesday. Company overview Founded: December 1982 Headquarters: San Jose, California, United States Number of employees: 26,000 (2022) Industry: Software Key people: Shantanu Narayen (Chairman & CEO) The results Revenue reported $5.048 billion for Q4 and reached $5 billion mark for the first time (up by 12% year-over-year) vs. $5.014 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $4.27 per share vs. $4.134 per share expected.
Fiscal year 2023 revenue reached a new record of $19.41 billion – a new record and an increase of 10% year-over-year. EPS reported at $16.07 per share, up by 17% from the year prior. Adobe expects revenue to reach between $5.10 to $5.15 billion in first quarter of fiscal year 2024, which would fall below analyst estimate of $5.16 billion.
CEO commentary ''Adobe drove record revenue of $19.41 billion in FY23 and 17 percent year-over-year EPS growth, with strong momentum across Creative Cloud, Document Cloud and Experience Cloud. Adobe’s strategy, category leadership, ground-breaking innovation, exceptional talent and global customer base position us well for 2024 and beyond,'' Shantanu Narayen, CEO of Adobe said in a letter to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 1.48% at the end of Tuesday, trading at $624.26 a share.
Share price fell by around 6% in the after-hours trading after the release of the latest results as future guidance fell short of estimates. Stock performance 1 month: +6.44% 3 months: +14.47% Year-to-date: +88.29% 1 year: +86.41% Adobe stock price targets Citigroup: $675 BMO Capital Markets: $690 KGI Securities: $730 Piper Sandler: $650 DA Davidson: $640 Oppenheimer: $660 HSBC: $519 Barclays: $640 Bank of America: $660 Adobe Inc. is the 28th largest company in the world with a market cap of $288.50 billion. You can trade Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Adobe Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap


USD continued to run higher in Monday’s session with US yields surging to highs not seen since 2007. Beats in both US manufacturing and employment data along with some hawkish Fed Speak supporting yields. Monday’s risk tone started off upbeat after the US Congress came to an agreement over the weekend to narrowly avoided a government shutdown, however this soured during the session seeing most equities finish in the red and supporting the USD with haven flows.
DXY surged through the psychological 107.00 level its highest print since November 2022 and having its biggest up day since February. EUR fell victim to USD strength despite a similar move higher in Euro Zone bond yields. EURUSD pushing below the key 1.05 support level from highs of 1.0591 earlier in the session.
EU Manufacturing and employment data were both in line with expectations, failing to offer the Euro any extra support. Some hawkish ECB talk from member de Guindos where he dismissed talks of rate cuts also not enough to lift the single currency. Technically EURUSD has no clear support from here until the next big figure at 1.04 though it has entered oversold territory on the daily RSI which may lend some temporary support.
USDJPY rose to highs of 149.90 on the surge in US treasury yields just short of the psychological 150 level where traders seem to be wary of pushing through, cautious of a BoJ intervention. Yen weakness came despite jawboning from the Japanese Finance minister and beats in manufacturing data. Yield differentials still the driving force in USDJPY as carry traders pile in, though with some caution at these levels.
AUS and NZD were sharply lower against the USD with risk sentiment souring as the session progressed, base metals also saw pressure, seeing the AUD underperform. NZD also saw notable underperformance but was not as soft as AUD, AUDNZD falling below the key 1.07 level. A big couple of days ahead for the two Antipodeans with the RBA meeting today and RBNZ tomorrow.
Today’s RBA meeting will be the first under Governor Bullock's stewardship with markets expecting the RBA to keep rates unchanged traders will be more interested in the accompanying statement where they will be eyeing any deviations that supports another hike by year-end. Todays Calendar:


热门话题在2024年伊始,Nvidia,英伟达,这个在2023年让全世界都为之疯狂的科技巨头再次引起了市场的关注。在过去几个月里英伟达不断努力突破每股500美元的股价大关,终于在近期实现。继去年在标准普尔500指数中取得了辉煌后,其股价又创下了新高。如今,Nvidia的市值已超过1.3万亿美元,距离亚马逊——全球市值第四高的公司——仅有2500亿美元的差距。

(Source:Tradingview)这种显著的股价上涨不仅反映了市场对Nvidia的极高期望,也凸显了其在人工智能计算领域芯片的强劲需求。根据彭博社的数据,Nvidia在第三季度的收入增长达到了惊人的206%,预计第四季度将实现232%的增长。这一成绩背后,是Nvidia不断创新和持续领先于市场的技术实力。“Nvidia正处于一个快速增长的大市场中,并在其中占据着主导地位。” Silvant Capital Management的首席投资官迈克尔·桑索特拉这样评价Nvidia的市场表现,并预测2024年将是该公司又一个收益丰厚的年份。在最近与摩根大通分析师的一次采访中,Nvidia的首席财务官科莱特·克雷斯重申了公司首席执行官黄仁勋的观点:在人工智能相关产品需求持续强劲的推动下,Nvidia在2025年的日历年度里有望继续实现增长。这一讲话进一步增强了投资者对Nvidia未来发展的信心。然而,2023年对Nvidia来说并非一帆风顺。拜登政府加强了对中国的芯片出口限制,这对英伟达造成了冲击,因为中国市场占到了其上一财年销售额的21%。面对这一挑战,Nvidia灵活应对,推出了性能较弱的图形芯片版本,旨在维持其在全球市场的竞争力,并承诺将在今年推出适用于数据中心的类似产品。

(Source:Nvidia)本周,Nvidia宣布推出了三款新的台式机图形芯片。这些新芯片包含了增强的人工智能功能,使个人电脑能够更高效地处理AI任务,而无需依赖互联网远程服务。这一举措不仅显示了Nvidia在产品创新方面的实力,也预示着其在个人电脑市场上的进一步扩张。随着Nvidia预计于下月公布收益报告,市场对其2024年的表现充满期待。伴随着其在人工智能、图形处理和数据中心领域的持续创新,Nvidia无疑已成为科技行业的一个闪耀明星,其未来的发展值得投资者和行业观察者密切关注。当然,在科技这个这个市场中,没有人可以常年霸榜,如果不进步迟早被超越,像AMD,Amazon等等的竞争对手们可都在努力想要赶超英伟达。加密货币市场也迎来好消息。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)于周三批准了一系列比特币交易所交易基金(ETF),这一举措预计势必将促进加密货币的增长。SEC快速通过了11个ETF在主要交易所如纽约证券交易所的上市申请。这些ETF允许投资者参与资产价格波动,而无需直接拥有这些资产。

(Source:Utoday)Ryze Labs的投资副总裁Thomas Tang表示,这一决定代表着数字资产领域迈向主流合法性和接受的重要时刻。ETF的推出,尤其是在受监管的框架下,为数字资产领域带来了机构级的信誉。截至2022年底,全球ETF的资产总额达到6.7万亿美元。此次SEC的决定为主流金融机构如富达和贝莱德提供的交易工具打开了大门,同时使投资者能够通过更传统的交易方式参与比特币投资。SEC主席Gary Gensler强调,尽管批准了某些比特币ETP的上市和交易,但SEC并未批准或认可比特币本身,投资者应对比特币及其相关产品的风险保持警惕。北卡罗来纳州共和党众议员、金融服务委员会主席Patrick McHenry对这一决定表示欢迎,认为这将为投资者和市场提供更广泛的接触这一代际技术的机会。虚拟货币面向大众化,也是未来元宇宙雏形的开始,总的来说这将是一个好的开始。科技未来瞬息万变,抓住机会,提早上车,才可以不错过时代给我们的福利。免责声明:GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Neo Yuan | GO Markets 助理分析师


热门话题周二, 澳大利亚统计局公布2023年11月零售季调后销售额361.8亿澳元,同比增长2%,高于预期的1.2%。

消费者在10月减少支出可选消费的支出而留待年末的折扣季购物狂欢。上月10月该数据录得负值,为-0.4%,9月则为1%。环比来看,2023年11月对比去年同月零售销售增长2.2%。环比趋势来看,今年在加息环境下,零售销售的环比增长趋势呈现下行,自2022年8月录得19.4%环比增长后断崖式下跌(澳联储同年5月开启首次加息)。这是由于加息收紧了市场流动性,在通货膨胀与信贷紧缩的大环境下,消费者减少零售支出也在意料之中。

今年年底的黑五购物狂欢自然是本次录得优于预期数据的主要推手。今年各商家线上线下营销活动较往年较早开始布局,物流速度有所提升,以尽全力刺激消费。但是投资者需要降低对于12月零售数据的期待,相关专家表示黑色星期五的销售往往会蚕食周边月份的支出,自 2019 年以来每年经季节性调整后的零售额都会出现下降。即 11 月支出猛增,12 月支出大幅下降。2022 年,11 月支出增长 1.5%,但 12 月支出下降 4.2%。2021 年,11 月份支出增长 6.6%,但次月支出下降 4%。因此预计 12 月的零售额将会下降。另外零售商的反馈似乎也印证该观点。在今年加息的缩进裤腰带消费节奏下,尽管黑色星期五和网络星期一创纪录销售,澳大利亚零售商协会表示部分零售商反馈圣诞节的销售情况不佳,销售额和客流量下降了两位数。12月零售销售数据甚至可能以外低于预期,投资者需提前关注。那么今年消费哪家强?从行业分类来看,家庭用品零售增长 7.5%,其次是百货商店(4.2%);服装、鞋类和个人配饰零售(2.7%)。黑色星期五销售的成功得益于消费者为应对加息环境下的生活成本压力而寻求折扣。此外,11 月份,食品相关行业均出现上涨,咖啡馆、餐馆和外卖食品服务以及食品零售业均上涨 0.4%。

降息、消费与经济增长零售数据对于判经济现状和前景具有指导作用,因为零售销售直接反映出消费者支出的增减变化。目前市场认为美联储已经停止加息,而澳洲央行通胀控制较其他央行略有落后,此为澳洲后续加息留下一定空间。因此销售数据的支撑之一是宏观环境,而这也与经济紧密相关。如果澳联储软着陆并考虑降息,零售支出可能会因此增加利好经济。反之,如果利率将在更长一段时间居高不下并且通货膨胀反攻,那么生活成本和经商成本仍将居高不下,投资者可转而关注澳元,与美国息差之下澳元将得到支撑。尽管较宏观与投资环境尚不完全清晰,非必需品零售商的股价已在提前计价购物狂欢与降息。S & P/ASX 200 非必需消费品指数上涨,近一年上涨12.78%。

其中Wesfarmers、JB Hi-Fi作为主要零售商近一年涨幅超20%,而 Coles、Harvey Norman、Myer则录得跌幅。投资者可以根据2024年宏观情况与经济数据关注相关股票题材,如果您需要对于澳股更为详尽的了解,欢迎联系GO Markets分析师为您进行一对一市场资讯分析,开启澳股交易之旅。

免责声明:GO Markets分析师或外部发言人提供的信息基于其独立分析或个人经验。所表达的观点或交易风格仅代表其个人;并不代表GO Markets的观点或立场。联系方式:墨尔本 03 8658 0603悉尼 02 9188 0418中国地区(中文) 400 120 8537中国地区(英文) +248 4 671 903作者:Cecilia Chen | GO Markets 分析师


US software and hardware manufacturer, Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL), announced results for its fiscal 2024 second quarter after the market close on Monday. Company overview Founded: June 16, 1977 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of employees: 164,000 (2023) Industry: Enterprise software, business software, cloud computing, computer hardware, consulting Key people: Larry Ellison (Executive Chairman & CTO), Jeff Henley (Vice Chairman), Safra Catz (CEO) The results Oracle reported revenue that fell short of analyst estimates of $12.941 billion (an increase of 5% year-over-year) for the quarter vs. $13.052 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $1.34 per share, above analyst estimate of $1.327 per share.
CEO commentary "Demand for our Cloud Infrastructure and Generative AI services is increasing at an astronomical rate. As a measure of that demand, Oracle's total Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) climbed to over $65 billion—exceeding annual revenue. Our cloud businesses are now at nearly a $20 billion-dollar annual revenue run rate, and cloud services demand continues to grow at unprecedented levels.
Business is good and getting better," Safra Catz, CEO of the company highlighted the growth of the company in a statement to investors. Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.34% at the end of trading on Monday at $115.13 a share. The stock fell in the after-hours trading by around 9% after Oracle missed revenue estimates for the previous quarter.
Stock performance 1 month: 0.86% 3 months: -9.14% Year-to-date: +40.85% 1 year: +41.65% Oracle stock price targets Morgan Stanley: $107 Evercore ISI: $135 BMO Capital Markets: $130 Piper Sandler: $130 Guggenheim: $150 Berenberg Bank: $110 Mizuho: $150 HSBC: $144 JP Morgan: $100 Barclays: $147 UBS Group: $135 Citigroup: $138 Oracle Corporation is the 26th largest company in the world with a market cap of $315.22 billion. You can trade Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
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