Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
El mercado petrolero tiene la costumbre de parecer asentado justo antes de que deje de estar asentado. Esa es la configuración ahora.
El tráfico a través del Estrecho de Ormuz ha caído bruscamente a medida que el conflicto en torno a Irán se ha intensificado, y más embarcaciones se están oscureciendo al apagar AIS, o Sistema de Identificación Automática, señales que generalmente muestran hacia dónde se mueven los barcos. Ormuz no es solo otra vía de envío. Es uno de los puntos de estrangulamiento energético más importantes del mundo, por lo que cuando la visibilidad comienza a desaparecer, el riesgo de suministro vuelve al centro de la conversación.
Por qué esto es importante ahora
Esto importa por un par de razones.
El movimiento titular es una cosa. La implicación del mercado es otra. El petróleo no solo se trata de cuántos barriles existen, sino que también se trata de si esos barriles pueden moverse, quién está dispuesto a asegurarlos, cuánto tiempo están dispuestos a esperar los compradores y cuánto riesgo extra sienten los comerciantes que necesitan cotizar.
En este momento, tres cosas están chocando a la vez: el transporte marítimo interrumpido, la diplomacia frágil y un mercado que ya se inclina fuertemente en una dirección. Esa combinación puede hacer que Brent se mueva más rápido de lo que normalmente sugerirían los fundamentos por sí solos.
¿Qué es lo que impulsa la mudanza?
1 La visibilidad del suministro se está deteriorando
El primer controlador es simple. El mercado puede ver menos, y eso tiende a ponerlo más nervioso.
El tránsito a través de Ormuz ha caído bruscamente, mientras que una proporción creciente del tráfico ha involucrado a barcos que ya no emiten señales de seguimiento estándar. En un inglés sencillo, menos embarcaciones se mueven normalmente a través de un corredor crítico, y cada vez más de la actividad es cada vez más difícil de rastrear. Eso no significa automáticamente que la oferta esté a punto de colapsar. Pero sí significa que la incertidumbre está aumentando.
2 El búfer de almacenamiento de información de Irán puede ser limitado
El segundo impulsor es la restricción de exportación y almacenamiento de Irán.
La capacidad de almacenamiento en tierra se estima en unos 40 millones de barriles, y el mercado está observando lo que algunos describen como una línea roja de 16 días. Ese es el punto en el que una interrupción prolongada de las exportaciones podría comenzar a obligar a los recortes de producción para evitar daños a los embalses. Para los lectores más nuevos, la comida para llevar es sencilla. Si el petróleo no puede salir de almacenamiento durante el tiempo suficiente, el problema puede dejar de ser el retraso en las exportaciones y comenzar a convertirse en un verdadero problema de suministro.
3 El posicionamiento podría amplificar el movimiento
El tercer impulsor es el posicionamiento, que es solo una abreviación del mercado de cómo los comerciantes ya están configurados antes de que ocurra el siguiente movimiento.
En este caso, el posicionamiento crudo especulativo parece fuertemente unilateral. Eso importa porque cuando un mercado se inclina demasiado en una dirección, no se necesita mucho para desencadenar un ajuste brusco. Un nuevo choque geopolítico podría obligar a los comerciantes a moverse rápidamente, y una vez que comience, el precio puede correr más duro de lo que las noticias subyacentes por sí solas podrían justificar.
Por qué el mercado se preocupa
Un shock petrolero rara vez se queda contenido dentro del mercado energético.
Los precios más altos del crudo pueden comenzar a aparecer en las facturas de fletes, manufactura y energía de los hogares. Eso significa que las expectativas de inflación pueden comenzar a subir nuevamente. Los bancos centrales ya están tratando de manejar un difícil equilibrio entre una inflación pegajosa y un crecimiento más suave, por lo que un mayor petróleo puede dificultar ese trabajo.
Y esto no es solo una historia sobre productores de petróleo recibiendo un ascensor. Las aerolíneas, las compañías de transporte y otras empresas sensibles al combustible pueden verse presionadas rápidamente cuando aumentan los costos de energía. Los mercados bursátiles más amplios también podrían tener que repensar las perspectivas de política si el aumento del petróleo mantiene la inflación más firme de lo esperado.
Los efectos ondulados van mucho más allá del petróleo
También hay un ángulo de moneda, y es menos sencillo de lo que parece a primera vista.
Las monedas vinculadas a las materias primas, como el dólar australiano, a menudo reciben apoyo cuando los precios de las materias primas suben. Pero esa relación no es automática. Si el petróleo está subiendo porque la demanda mundial está mejorando, eso puede ayudar. Si está subiendo porque el riesgo geopolítico se está disparando, los mercados pueden cambiar al modo de desactivación del riesgo, y eso puede pesar sobre el dólar australiano incluso a medida que suben los precios de las materias primas.
Eso es lo que hace que este tipo de movimiento sea más interesante de lo que parece a primera vista. El mismo rally petrolero puede apoyar una parte del mercado mientras ejerce presión sobre otra.
Activos y nombres en el marco
El crudo Brent sigue siendo la lectura más clara sobre el riesgo de oferta amplio. Si los comerciantes quieren la expresión más limpia de la historia del titular, generalmente es aquí donde miran primero.
- ExxonMobil es uno de los nombres más obvios en el encuadre. Los precios más altos del petróleo pueden respaldar los precios de venta logrados y el impulso de las ganancias a corto plazo, aunque nunca es tan simple como subir el petróleo, abastecerse. Los costos, la mezcla de producción y el sentimiento más amplio siguen siendo importantes.
- NextEra Energy agrega otra capa. Esta historia no es sólo sobre combustibles fósiles. Cuando la seguridad energética se convierte en una preocupación mayor, los argumentos a favor de la resiliencia eléctrica doméstica, la inversión en la red y la generación alternativa también pueden fortalecerse.
- AUD/USD es otro mercado que vale la pena observar. Australia está estrechamente ligada a los ciclos de productos básicos, por lo que los precios más fuertes de las materias primas a veces pueden respaldar la moneda. Pero si los mercados están reaccionando más al miedo que al crecimiento, ese viento de cola habitual puede no aguantar.
Para los lectores más nuevos, el punto clave es que los movimientos petroleros no se extienden a través de los mercados en una línea ordenada y predecible. Se ondulan hacia afuera de manera desigual, ayudando a algunos activos, presionando a otros y, a veces, haciendo ambas cosas al mismo tiempo.
Lo que podría salir mal
Una narrativa fuerte no es lo mismo que un comercio unidireccional.
Un alto el fuego podría estabilizar los flujos marítimos más rápido de lo esperado. La OPEP+ podría compensar parte de la estanqueidad elevando la producción. Los datos de demanda de China podrían decepcionar, cambiando el enfoque hacia un consumo débil en lugar de una oferta limitada. Y si la prima geopolítica se desvanece, el petróleo podría retroceder más rápidamente de lo que sugiere el estado de ánimo actual.
Para los lectores más nuevos, la comida para llevar es simple. Los mítines petroleros pueden ser reales sin ser permanentes. Un movimiento puede justificarse a corto plazo por el riesgo de interrupción, y luego revertirlo rápidamente si esos riesgos disminuyen o si la demanda se suaviza.
El mercado ya no está tarifando el petróleo de forma aislada. Es la visibilidad de precios, la seguridad del transporte y el riesgo de que la interrupción del suministro se derrama en inflación, divisas y sentimiento de riesgo más amplio.
Por eso Ormuz importa, incluso para los lectores que nunca comercian un barril de crudo ellos mismos.
Last night the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England kept rates on hold, which was expected. The CPI data came out worst than expected but no big surprises. We also had the Philly Fed manufacturing index, which was much better than expected at 4.7.
As to what was expected at 1.1, so it was a good strong figure. Unemployment came out a bit worse than expected at 277k. Now European and US stocks had a very good rebound last night off lows.
So the US 30 bounced off its support line at 17470 and it is looking like it could be a possible reversal point but we need more confirmation. This is due to a Brexit figure coming out suggesting the stay camp had a lead. This had a very big impact on Gold.
Watch our full report by clicking play on the video below.
We have seen a quiet recovery for Pound Sterling in the absence of any negative headlines. Add to this some rambunctious tweets from President Trump weakening the Dollar and the GBPUSD pair is tip-toeing upwards, shrugging off the recent dip below 1.30 as nothing more than a temporary blip. It is these sudden blips or brief recoveries in Cable that leave traders scratching their heads and pondering the now tiresome question, "Is this Brexit related?".
The short answer is that it is just too difficult to dissect the Brexit fundamentals, mainly due to a lack of clarity surrounding negotiations. I guess you could argue that the longer-term drop in the Pound could be a sign that the market has already begun pricing in a degree of uncertainty, but it's more likely that nobody truly knows the outcome. Whatever happens, the technical picture for GBPUSD suggests we may be in for a continued move down unless something drastically changes the overall market sentiment.
A Look At The Charts First, we will visit GBPUSD on the daily timeframe using the Point & Figure method, as I believe it provides us with a reasonable downside target. (GBPUSD – Daily) As shown, a bearish resistance line formed around the 1.36 mark which put us firmly in a downtrend. It was a bold move south from the 1.44 highs and shows signs that the bears are in control longer-term. Price collapsing through the 130.50 support level was significant as it had failed on three previous attempts.
Assuming the weight of this trend continues, the chart suggests 1.28 as the next major area of support. Given we reached as low as 129.60 last week, it appears this level could be within reach in the coming weeks. Alternatively, a bullish move towards 1.33 would require us to reassess the latest trend, and anything above this region has the potential to be a minefield of choppy resistance.
On the daily Ichimoku chart below, we see a great example of this. Note the thickness of the cloud above 1.33, although not impenetrable, it will likely be gather upward momentum. (GBPUSD -Daily) Perhaps the most precise view of Brexit's progress when it comes to the value of Sterling can be seen in the EURGBP pairing. (EURGBP – Daily) The EURGBP daily chart highlights Brexit's indecision or lack of clarity as reflected in this longer-term range. Since October last year, we have yet to see a final move from either the Pound or the Euro.
Euro Winning The Race To Break First One thing I would point out is that the Euro has its nose in front regarding strength against the Sterling. The latest price is trading well-above the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) which is a bullish signal. We can also see the Euro gaining much ground over the past month against its counterpart.
Any continuation of this move would make 0.90 a critical level to watch. Remaining Focused In A Sleepy Market There is always a tendency to become complacent when currencies have been trading in a long-term range, or when political campaigns survive well past their use by date, polluting the fundamentals. Trading can become less exciting, and we start to assume that the status quo will remain.
In this case however, it is worth keeping tabs on the Pound Sterling, as once Brexit is resolved one way or another, we could see some considerable shifts in the market whilst as those on the sidelines are caught napping. Adam Taylor CFTe GO Markets This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.
Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
South Africa Update 8 th August 2017, the day president of South Africa, Jacob Zuma survived a no-confidence vote in parliament, which made sure that he will maintain power of one of the biggest economies in the African continent. It is worth noting that it was the eighth vote of no-confidence that Zuma has survived since being in charge. About Jacob Zuma Name: Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma Born: 12 April 1942 Birthplace: Nkandla, South Africa Political part: African National Congress Jacob Zuma, who has been involved in corruption allegations since being elected as the president of South Africa in 2009, survived the vote by a majority of 198 votes to 177 after the vote was called by the Democratic Alliance party who accused Zuma of suppressing democracy.
Even though the motion was defeated, it might still have an impact on the party which currently leads South Africa. Unlike the previous no-confidence votes, the latest vote was held anonymously and there were suggestions it could reach 50 votes of no-confidence from the Zuma’s African National Congress party, which is the number required to pass the motion. Instead 24 members of his part voted against their leader, around 12 others refrained or failed to show up to the vote which would suggest further unrest within the party further down the line.
Many have suggested that Zuma will not last until 2019, which is when the next general election takes place. Financial Markets The South African Rand weakened against the US Dollar after President Jacob Zuma survived a no-confidence which could have ended his administration of the African nation. The decline was a big turnaround for the Rand which was the best performing major currency on earlier in the week.
Despite the result, it is unlikely to cause a major weakness as the result was largely priced in before the vote took place. USD/ZAR By: Klavs Valters GO Markets
NZDCAD - Daily To begin with, let’s take a look at the NZDCAD. Admittedly not the liveliest minor pair but in this instance, I think it is worth a mention. On the daily time frame, we can see the price is hovering around the critical support zone of 0.8850, an area that has been tested three times already this year but has failed to mount any significant challenges to the downside.
The latest candle suggests the bulls are attempting to regain control and we may see moves up to re-test previous areas of resistance. A potential catalyst for a bounce is lurking within the RSI indicator which shows NZDCAD heading into oversold territory. Upside targets start at 0.90 before testing the previous high of 0.9225.
Should the 0.8850 regions become unstuck, evidence of previous support is around last December’s lows of 0.87 EURUSD - Daily Not a great deal to discuss for the pair during this period of consolidation. However, it is interesting to see how price action is responding to the lower levels of the Ichimoku cloud shown above. Notice several recent attempts under the cloud before causing temporary reversals each time.
All the other indicators on this daily chart including the lagging Chikou Span (purple line) are bearish. At this point, we could see price retrace back to the previous low of 1.15080 before resuming an upward trajectory longer-term. I say this tentatively because if you look at the weekly chart, the price has not closed above the 200 EMA for the past seven weeks.
USOIL- Daily Lastly, without delving into the fundamental drivers of the commodity, displayed is the strong uptrend we have witnessed during the July to September period last year. Technically speaking, we require at least three points of reference to validate these lines, so confirmation is pending. There are also two weekly pivots in the region of 72.00 which could be the next port of call for the price of oil.
Above here, we are likely to see 74.00 tested as well. I think the point and figure chart below displays this more clearly. We have a bullish support line that remains steadfast, and the price is edging upwards to re-touch the 74.00 mark.
In both charts, it would seem 68.00 is the level to watch before revising the overall trend. It is also worthy of a downside target in the interim. By Adam Taylor CFTe This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis.
They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions. Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
Have you spotted something unusual happening with the Japanese Yen? With the likes of protectionism dominating global headlines, the Yen is weakening amid broader risk aversion which is out of character for the currency. A Confidence crisis among Asian markets You have to wonder if the currency is absorbing some of the inherent uncertainty brought about by various negotiations in the region or whether there is something else at play?
Historically, we would expect to see signs of strength returning to the Yen in the USDJPY pair but so far we have not seen a great deal. Looking at the Daily charts below, evidence of bullish activity is rife. We see price action firmly in an uptrend above the longer-term moving averages and posting positive gains for July.
USDJPY – Daily At this stage, the chart suggests we might see a change in direction given the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is quite overbought, but it is hard to give this idea much validity in contrast with the other indicators. I suspect any sudden shift to the downside could see the weekly pivot level of 111.80 become a potential target. Alternatively, should the Dollar hold firm, it may struggle to break the 114.00 level as this area has proved somewhat resilient over the past year.
Not all the Yen crosses appear weak Ignoring the Dollar, let's take a peek at the AUDJPY cross as there could be an opportunity to go long Yen after all. Notice that we are approaching the top of a range on the daily and price action appears trapped in a sideways move. This range extends between the 84.50 and 81.00 levels, and with the price now touching 83.50 we're not too far away.
AUDJPY - Daily Has this pair found a ceiling? The 84.50 level is crucial as it marks the most recent high. It was last challenged in June but was short-lived; only one day to be exact.
This swift failed attempt suggests any further attempts may result in the same. Also, the weakness of the previous day's candles makes it appear the bulls are either fading or somewhat indecisive. This clue might be the turning point at which the pair gains some momentum in the opposite direction once again finding those support levels of 82.00/81.00.
We cannot get carried away though. As mentioned, the Japanese Yen is acting out of character as of late so we must not rule out the possibility of a further rally. Past 84.50 the next pocket of resistance appears to be at 85.50.
A quick glance at the hourly chart also highlights the willingness of the bulls to jump back in at any time. Look at how the price rebounded off the weekly pivot and followed through to the upside in the short-term. AUDJPY – Hourly Faith as a safe-haven restored?
Of course, many traders will still consider the Japanese Yen as a safer place to invest during times of turmoil. And I think Japan's government will take action to help relieve concerns. Only yesterday Japan signed a free-trade deal with the EU which is an enormous partnership and will go a long way to squash some of those fears.
We will have to wait and see in the coming weeks if the currency can restore its prowess as a safe-haven asset. Adam Taylor CFTe GO Markets This article is written by a GO Markets Analyst and is based on their independent analysis. They remain fully responsible for the views expressed as well as any remaining error or omissions.
Trading Forex and Derivatives carries a high level of risk.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will make its first interest rate decision for the year 2019. We will see the Press Conference, Rate and Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday. Market participants are expecting the RBNZ to adopt the same dovishness seen lately by major central banks The Reserve Bank of Australia The Federal Reserve Bank The European Central Bank The Bank of England.
The global downside risks have increased, and major central banks are downgrading their growth forecasts. It is widely expected that the RBNZ will follow suit in the shift towards easing and echoed the RBA’s concerns. New Zealand’s economy has slowed in the second half of 2018.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.0% in the June 2018 quarter compared to the September quarter whereby the economy increased by only 0.3%. June 2018 Quarter: GDP, Industry growth and contribution to growth. Source: Stats NZ September 2018 Quarter: GDP, Industry growth and contribution to growth.
Source: Stats NZ The Labour market reports received last week might add to a more cautious tone from the RBNZ. The Unemployment rate rose back to 4.3% in the December 2018 quarter, up from 4.0% (revised) in the previous quarter. The Housing sector is also experiencing volatility dragged by bank prudence, investor wariness, and affordability constraints, along with the foreign buyer ban, which prevents foreigners from buying homes.
Keeping these in mind, and in anticipation of the same dovish comments from the RBNZ, the markets are aggressively pricing in the chance of a rate cut later this year which is weighing heavily on the local currency. The price action of New Zealand dollar pairs will, therefore, depend on how dovish the RBNZ will be compared to the current expectations. It should be noted that odds of a rate cut were also on the table last year.
However, back in January, the released inflation data cast some doubts about a cut, and it will be interesting to see how the RBNZ plays out the growing global risks.