市場新聞與洞察
透過專家洞察、新聞與技術分析，助你領先市場，制定交易決策。
When the Trump administration pushed global tariffs to 15% in late February, geopolitical risk in the Middle East flared again, and Kevin Warsh's nomination to chair the Federal Reserve sent a hawkish jolt through bond markets, gold did the thing gold is expected to do in periods of stress. It went up.
Bitcoin did something different. It tracked the Nasdaq. From its October 2025 peak above US$126,000, it fell nearly 50% to the high US$60,000s by early March. The divergence is the story. Gold acted more like a refuge. Bitcoin acted more like a high-beta tech stock with extra leverage strapped on.
For a CFD trader, meaning anyone trading the price move with borrowed exposure rather than owning the underlying, that distinction is not academic. It tells you what you are actually trading when you take a position in either market.
What drove the move
Gold is being lifted by three currents at once: central bank stockpiling, investor demand as a hedge against currency debasement, and reactive inflows on tariff and geopolitical headlines.
Bitcoin's drivers are noisier especially as it still benefits from institutional adoption, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a long-running narrative about being "digital gold". But its short-term price is increasingly set by leverage. Algorithmic risk desks now bucket Bitcoin alongside tech equities, so when the VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, spikes, those models may cut Bitcoin exposure automatically. That is mechanical, not philosophical.
Why the market cares
That is why two assets both routinely labelled "safe havens" can trade in opposite directions on the same day.
What CFD traders can watch
The catch with gold is that the run already looks stretched. The roughly 14% drop across a couple of January sessions was a reminder that crowded trades cut both ways, especially when leveraged institutions need to raise cash and sell what is liquid. Bitcoin can move several percent in an hour for reasons that have nothing to do with the macro story in the morning's news. With CFD leverage, that volatility is amplified in both directions.
What could go wrong
The bottom line
Gold and Bitcoin are not the same trade in different clothes. Gold has behaved more like an old-school crisis hedge in 2026. Bitcoin has behaved more like a leveraged growth asset that performs best when central banks are pumping liquidity into the system. Both can be useful to track via CFDs. Neither is a guaranteed shelter. Knowing which one you are actually trading, and why, is the difference between hedging risk and accidentally doubling up on it.
Markets enter May with the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, the Fed having concluded its 28-29 April meeting, and the next decision not due until 16-17 June. Brent crude is trading near US$108 per barrel, with the IEA describing the ongoing Iran conflict as the largest energy supply shock on record as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
The macro tension this month is straightforward but uncomfortable: an oil-driven inflation impulse landing into a labour market that surprised to the upside in March, while Q1 growth came in soft.
The Federal Reserve has revised its 2026 PCE inflation projection to 2.7% and continues to signal one cut this year, though the timing remains contested. With no FOMC scheduled in May, every high-impact release may carry more weight than usual into the June meeting.
Growth: business activity and demand
The growth picture entering May is mixed. The Q1 GDP advance estimate landed on 30 April, while softer retail sales and inventory data have made the demand picture harder to read.
ISM manufacturing has been a quieter source of optimism, with recent prints holding in expansionary territory. Energy costs and tariff effects are now the variables most likely to shape the next move in business activity.
Labour: payrolls and employment data
The April Employment Situation is one of the most concentrated risk events of the month. March payrolls came in stronger than expected, while earlier data revisions left the trend less clear. April will help show whether the labour market is genuinely re-accelerating or simply absorbing seasonal noise.
Inflation: CPI, PPI and PCE
April inflation lands as the most market-relevant data block of the month. The March consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.3% over the prior 12 months, with energy up 10.9% on the month and gasoline up 21.2%, accounting for almost three quarters of the headline increase. With Brent holding near US$105 to US$108 through the latter half of April, a further passthrough into the April CPI energy component looks plausible.
Core CPI and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) remain the better read on underlying trend.
Policy, trade and earnings
May has no FOMC meeting, so policy attention shifts to Fed speakers, the path of any leadership transition, and the dominant geopolitical backdrop. Chair Jerome Powell's term concludes around the middle of the month. President Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, with the Senate Banking Committee having held a confirmation hearing.
The Iran conflict, now in its ninth week, remains the single largest source of macro tail risk, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade and stalled US-Iran talks setting the tone for energy markets and broader risk appetite. Q1 earnings season is in its peak weeks, with peak weeks expected between 27 April and 15 May, and 7 May the most active reporting day.
What to monitor this month
- Iran-US negotiations and the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz
- Fed speakers and any change in tone between meetings
- Q1 earnings, especially from retail, energy and cyclical names
- Weekly EIA crude inventories
- Any tariff-related announcements that may affect inflation expectations
Bottom line
May is not a quiet month just because there is no FOMC meeting. Payrolls, CPI, PPI, retail sales and PCE all land before the June policy decision, while oil remains the dominant external shock.
For markets, the key question is whether the data points to a temporary energy-driven inflation lift, or a broader inflation problem arriving at the same time as softer growth. That distinction may shape the next major move in bonds, the US dollar, gold and equity indices.
Asia-Pacific markets start May with a more complicated macro backdrop than earlier in 2026. Regional growth has shown resilience, but higher energy prices are testing inflation expectations, trade balances and policy flexibility across fuel-importing economies.
For traders, the month's focus is likely to sit across three linked areas.
China
Japan inflation and BOJ signals
Australia and the RBA decision
Regional swing factors
As we enter May 2026, the global FX market is attempting a difficult high-wire act. April was defined by "civilisation-ending" ultimatums and a Pakistani-brokered ceasefire that sent Brent crude on a rollercoaster from US$110 down to the mid-US$90s.
For traders, the connect-the-dots moment is this: the peak panic around the Iran conflict has faded, but it has been replaced by a structural regime shift. Markets may be moving from a war premium to a transition premium.
With Kevin Warsh nominated to take the Fed chair in mid-May and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) staring down a generational ceiling near 160.00, the calm in the headlines may be masking a major repricing of global yield differentials.
Strongest mover: US dollar (USD)
The US dollar enters May with a new kind of ballast. While the ceasefire reduced the immediate need for a panic hedge, the nomination of Kevin Warsh, widely viewed as an inflation hawk, has provided a structural floor for the greenback.
Markets may be front-running a shift in Fed independence alongside a stricter approach to inflation targeting. That combination - a credible hawkish signal at the policy level - tends to support the dollar even when the near-term data is mixed.
Weakest mover: Japanese yen (JPY)
If you wanted to design a currency to struggle in 2026, the yen fits the brief. Despite the "TACO" script, short for "Trump always chickens out", providing some relief to equities, the mathematical pressure on JPY remains significant.
The BOJ continues its delicate exit from long-term stimulus, but this process has been slower than many anticipated. The USD/JPY pair remains particularly sensitive to US Treasury yields. A move above 4.5% on the US 10-year could put additional pressure on the BOJ to act.
The pair to watch: AUD/USD
The Australian dollar sits at an interesting intersection.
Inflation in Australia has proven more persistent than in other developed economies, which may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain a cautious, higher-for-longer stance. This could create potential yield support for the AUD that does not exist in the same way for currencies where central banks are already cutting.
What could support the AUD
At the same time, the AUD remains deeply exposed to commodity markets and Chinese demand.
Iron ore and copper are critical inputs for the Australian economy. If global demand remains stable, the Australian dollar could find further support. Any shift in Chinese industrial data will be a key signal for this pair.
The EUR/USD comparison
The EUR/USD dynamic also warrants attention.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is balancing a cooling economy with regional inflation targets. Growth in Germany remains a concern for the eurozone, and markets are pricing in a potential rate cut that could narrow the interest rate differential with the US.
That shift may cause the euro to soften relative to the US dollar. Political developments within the European Union, particularly any fiscal disagreement, could add to volatility in that pair.
Data to watch next
Four events stand out as the clearest catalysts. Each has a direct transmission channel into rate expectations and, by extension, into forex CFDs.
Key levels and signals
The FX market heading into May is being shaped by a normalisation trap. Traders may be betting that the worst of the energy shock is over, but a hawkish Fed leadership transition could still re-steepen the yield curve. Moves are likely to remain highly data-dependent and sensitive to overnight gaps from the Middle East, where geopolitical shifts can gap markets before the next session opens.
石油市场习惯于在停止结算之前就看上去已经定下来了。这就是现在的设置。
随着伊朗周边冲突的加剧，霍尔木兹海峡的交通量急剧下降，越来越多的船只因关闭AIS或自动识别系统而陷入黑暗，这些信号通常显示船只在哪里移动。霍尔木兹不只是另一条航道。它是世界上最重要的能源阻塞点之一，因此，当能见度开始消失时，供应风险就会回到对话的中心。
为什么现在这很重要
这很重要，有两个原因。
头条新闻是一回事。市场影响是另一回事。石油不仅关乎有多少桶，还关系到这些桶能否流动，谁愿意为它们投保，买家准备等待多长时间，以及交易者认为他们需要在多大风险的基础上定价。
目前，有三件事同时发生冲突：航运中断、外交脆弱以及市场已经严重倾向于一个方向。这种组合可以使布伦特原油的走势比基本面本身通常所暗示的要快。
是什么推动了这一举动
1 供应能见度恶化
第一个驱动程序很简单。市场看得更少，这往往会让市场更加紧张。
通过霍尔木兹的过境量急剧下降，而越来越多的交通量涉及不再广播标准跟踪信号的船只。简而言之，正常通过重要走廊的船只越来越少，越来越多的活动也变得越来越难以追踪。这并不自动意味着供应即将崩溃。但这确实意味着不确定性正在上升。
2 伊朗的储存缓冲区可能有限
第二个驱动因素是伊朗的出口和储存限制。
陆上储存容量估计约为4000万桶，市场正在关注有人所说的16天红线。到那时，长期的出口中断可能会开始迫使减产，以避免对储油库造成损害。对于新读者来说，要点很简单。如果石油不能储存足够长的时间，问题可能不再是出口延迟，而是开始成为真正的供应问题。
3 定位可以放大移动
第三个驱动因素是定位，这只是市场简写，说明在下一步行动发生之前交易者已经如何进行设置。
在这种情况下，投机性原油头寸显得严重片面。这很重要，因为当市场向一个方向倾斜得太远时，触发急剧调整并不需要太多时间。新的地缘政治冲击可能迫使交易者迅速采取行动，而一旦开始，价格的上涨幅度可能会超过单纯基础新闻所能证明的合理性。
为什么市场在乎
石油冲击很少能在能源市场内得到控制。
较高的原油价格可能会开始出现在运费、制造业和家庭能源账单中。这意味着通货膨胀预期可能会再次开始攀升。各国央行已经在努力管理粘性通货膨胀和疲软增长之间的艰难平衡，因此石油价格上涨会使这项工作变得更加艰难。
这不仅仅是一个关于石油生产商获得提振的故事。当能源成本上升时，航空公司、运输公司和其他对燃料敏感的企业可能会迅速承受压力。如果石油价格上涨使通货膨胀保持强于预期，则更广泛的股市可能还必须重新考虑政策前景。
连锁反应远不止石油
还有一个货币角度，它不如最初出现的那么简单。
当原材料价格上涨时，与大宗商品挂钩的货币，例如澳元，通常会获得支撑。但是这种关系不是自动的。如果石油价格因为全球需求改善而攀升，那可能会有所帮助。如果由于地缘政治风险激增而攀升，则市场可能会转向避险模式，即使大宗商品价格上涨，这也可能打压澳元。
这就是让这种举动比乍一看更有趣的原因。同样的石油涨势可以支撑市场的一个部分，同时给另一部分带来压力。
框架中的资产和名称
布伦特原油仍然是广泛供应风险中最明显的解读。如果交易者想要最简洁的头条新闻表达，通常是他们首先看的地方。
- 埃克森美孚是画面中最明显的名字之一。油价上涨可以支撑已实现的销售价格和短期的盈利势头，尽管这从来都不像石油上涨、囤积那么简单。成本、生产结构和更广泛的情绪仍然很重要。
- NexTera Energy 又增加了一层。这个故事不仅仅是关于化石燃料的。当能源安全成为一个更大的问题时，国内电力弹性、电网投资和替代发电的理由也将得到加强。
- 澳元/美元是另一个值得关注的市场。澳大利亚与大宗商品周期密切相关，因此原材料价格走强有时可以支撑该货币。但是，如果市场对恐惧的反应大于对增长的反应，那么通常的顺风可能不会成立。
对于新读者来说，关键是石油走势不会以整齐的、可预测的线条在市场中传播。它们不均匀地向外波动，帮助某些资产，给其他资产施加压力，有时两者兼而有之。
可能会出什么问题
强烈的叙述与单向交易不同。
停火可以比预期更快地稳定航运。欧佩克+可以通过提高产量来抵消部分紧张局势。来自中国的需求数据可能会令人失望，将焦点转移到消费疲软而不是供应受限上。而且，如果地缘政治溢价消退，石油回落的速度可能比当前情绪所暗示的要快。
对于新读者来说，要点很简单。石油涨势可以是真实的，但不是永久性的。短期内，中断风险可能证明此举是合理的，然后如果这些风险缓解或需求疲软，则迅速逆转。
市场不再孤立地对石油进行定价。这是定价可见性、运输安全性以及供应中断蔓延到通货膨胀、货币和更广泛的风险情绪中的风险。
这就是为什么Hormuz很重要，即使对于从未自己交易过一桶原油的读者来说也是如此。
在本系列的最后三期中，我们描绘了2026年经济的走向： 银行 它支撑着首都， 公用事业 它提供电子，以及 芯片制造商 制造硅。随着四月的报告季进入最后一幕，注意力转移到了前门。
Meta、亚马逊和苹果正处于人工智能建设满足日常消费者和企业需求的时刻。
为什么投资回报率是现在的焦点
支持人工智能的公司和通过人工智能获利的公司之间正在出现一种硬鸿沟，有时也被称为 “大分散”。Meta 和亚马逊处于大规模资本支出（capex）周期的中心，而 2026 年全行业的支出估计约为 6,500 亿美元至 7,000 亿美元。
这就是为什么投资回报率（ROI）指标是首要考虑的原因。
- 是 Meta的 人工智能驱动的广告定位足够强大，足以证明其支出计划的合理性？
- 是 亚马逊 Web 服务 (AWS) 的重新加速速度足够快以支持自定义芯片推送？
- 能够 苹果 即使在更加困难的中国市场中，也要通过证明iPhone 17周期的真实性来保持其溢价估值？
到2026年，问题不再是谁能建造数据中心。谁能将这些投资转化为可持续的高利润利润。在最近的停火之后，能源市场趋于平静，科技估值有一定的喘息空间。现在市场需要证据。
四月份的美国财报季即将来临，这个市场想要的不仅仅是一个好故事。 摩根大通 已经设定了很高的标准，取得了强劲的业绩，现在注意力正在转移到标准普尔500指数的引擎室上：人工智能基础设施，其中三家公司处于故事的中心。
为什么这个收益窗口对人工智能很重要
微软、Alphabet和NVIDIA不仅是人工智能周期的参与者，他们正在构建其他公司所依赖的物理和软件架构：芯片、云区域、模型和工具。如果这笔支出要带来回报，那么最初的迹象可能会在未来几周的季度业绩中开始显现。
每家公司都代表不同的测试。
- 微软： 企业采用人工智能是否转化为收入和利润扩大
- 字母： 无论拥有从芯片到云再到分发的完整堆栈是持久的优势，还是仅仅是一种昂贵的防御阵地
- NVIDIA： 硬件周期是否仍在持续、加速或开始趋于平稳
到2026年，问题不再是人工智能投资是否在进行，资本承诺巨大，并且已经公开表态。问题在于这笔支出产生回报的速度是否足够快，足以证明这些赌注的规模是合理的。