市場新聞與洞察

On 23 rd June 2017, Saudi Arabia and its allies issued a list of demands giving Qatar 10 days to respond to their ultimatum. It has now been just over a month since seven countries announced that they will be cutting all diplomatic ties with the Gulf nation 5 th July saw the leaders of the four countries seeking to isolate the tiny Gulf nation met in Cairo, the capital of Egypt and advised they have received a response from Qatar and will be looking to respond to their response in a timely manner. Here is the full list of the demands put forward by Saudi Arabia and its allies – Limit diplomatic ties with Iran and close their diplomatic missions there Stop all ties with terrorist organisations Shut down the Al Jazeera and its affiliates Shut down news outlets funded by Qatar With immediate effect terminate all Turkish military presence in Qatar and end any joint military cooperation with Turkey inside Qatar Stop all means of funding for individuals, groups or organizations that have been classed as terrorists Hand over all ‘terrorist figures’ and wanted individuals from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain to their countries of origin End interference in sovereign countries internal affairs and stop granting citizenship to wanted national from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain.

Revoke Qatari citizenship for existing nationals where such citizenship violates those countries’ laws Stop all contacts with the political opposition in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. Hand over all files detailing Qatar's prior contacts with and support for those opposition groups Pay reparations and compensation for loss of life and other, financial losses caused by Qatar's policies in recent years. The sum will be determined in coordination with Qatar Align itself with the other Gulf and Arab countries militarily, politically, socially and economically, as well as on economic matters, in line with an agreement reached with Saudi Arabia in 2014 Agree to all the demands within 10 days of it being submitted to Qatar, or the list becomes invalid.

The document doesn't specify what the countries will do if Qatar refuses to comply Consent to monthly audits for the first year after agreeing to the demands, then once per quarter during the second year. For the following 10 years, Qatar would be monitored annually for compliance [caption id="attachment_57005" align="alignright" width="600"] USOUSD Source Go Markets MT4[/caption] This has had an overall effect on the market, we have seen the oil prices plummet in the recent weeks (red vertical line – the day other countries announced cutting all diplomatic ties with Qatar), of course this is not directly linked with the situation with Qatar as there are other factors that can affect the price of oil. The two major being Geo political risk particularly with what happening in other parts of the Middle East such as Syrian Crisis and global supply and demand (mainly from developing countries).

This may still have an impact on the price as the dialogue with the countries involved continues. Top 30 countries by oil production [caption id="attachment_57007" align="aligncenter" width="447"] Source Wikipedia [/caption] QIG (Qatari Investors Group) [caption id="attachment_57006" align="aligncenter" width="600"] Source Bloomberg [/caption] It’s worth noting that the Qatari stock market lost around 15 billion dollars in market value (10%) since all diplomatic ties were cut off by the other countries involved. By: Klavs Valters GO Markets

Qatar Diplomatic Crisis 5th June 2017 a diplomatic crisis hit Qatar with seven countries. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Egypt Yemen, Libya and the Maldives announced they are cutting all diplomatic ties with Qatar which came as a shock to the rest of the World. Reason? – Saudi Arabia made an announcement via Saudi Press Agency, stating it was taking this step to protect its national security from the dangers of terrorism and extremism and it is believed the rest of the countries have the same reasons for cutting its diplomatic ties with the tiny Gulf nation.

USOUSD Source: GO Markets MT4 Country profile – Qatar Capital: Doha Official language: Arabic Currency: Riyal (QAR) Population: 2,675,522 (2016) GDP total: $353,143 billion Qatar is a member of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ) What has happened so far? » The five Arab states have cut off land, air and sea travel to and from Qatar » The Foreign Ministry of Bahrain have issued a statement to order all diplomats to leave Doha within 48 hours and that all Qatari diplomats should leave Bahrain within the same timeframe » All the involved countries have ordered their citizens to leave Qatar » Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates have given Qatari nationals two-week timeframe to leave their countries » Qatar has been expelled from the Saudi led intervention in Yemen » Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt have all said they will close their airspace to Qataris national airline – Qatar Airways » All major airlines, including – Emirates, Etihad Airways, Gulf Air, EgyptAir, Air Arabia, Saudi Arabian Airlines and FlyDubai have suspended their flights to and from Qatar » Qatar Airways have also suspended their flight operation to Saudi Arabia Qatar has since responded to the shock announcements and has called the decisions ‘unjustified’. The statement reads ‘The measures are unjustified and are based on claims and allegations that have no basis in fact’ and it added that the decision will ‘not affect the normal lives of citizens and residents’. The impact It is still too early to see what the effect the diplomatic crisis with have on Qatar’s economy, but since the announcement was made the oil prices moved lower, raising further uncertainty about the oil productions in the Middle East.

Oil prices have dropped more than 4% in the last week, the largest decline since early May. USOUSD Source: GO Markets MT4 Another concern for Qatar is the border, the only way in by land is the border with Saudi Arabia. Every day there are hundreds of lorries which cross the border to supply Qatar with different supplies and one of the main supplies is food, in fact around 40% of Qatar’s food supplies is believed to come via this route, so it is a big concern for Qatar.

It is worth keeping up with further developments in this matter as it could have an impact in the oil markets. -By Klavs Valters GO Markets

Annihilation of the Yen It was the year 2013. Some interesting events took place that caused some reverberations in global markets. The once one booming city of Detroit (known for its car manufacturing) filed for bankruptcy and the US government shutdown for almost two weeks.

But the most significant story was the fall of the Japanese currency against all its major counterparts. A dangerous climb In 2013 the value of the Yen fell 21% against the US dollar, making it the most sizeable yearly gain against the Asian currency since 1979. Whenever a currency pair rises or falls this quickly, traders have a tendency to become complacent and think it will continue regardless.

If we’re looking for an analogy, we can view the rise of the US dollar and other currencies to lofty heights against the Yen as something similar to an inexperienced or over-zealous climber attempting to reach the top, but failing to plan for future events and construct a safe passage back down. Resurrection of the Yen Despite the Japanese government’s best efforts – adopting negative interest rates and championing an aggressive stance to help weaken their currency – the Yen has gained both in strength and popularity in 2016. And this is creating some significant moves in the FX world.

Before we discuss the technical side of the charts, it is worth noting that all the Japanese pairs mentioned are currently following a bearish resistance line (BR) or downtrend according to the latest point and figure analysis. Finding 300+ pip moves In the previous newsletter introducing point and figure, we discussed why this method is an excellent tool for locating key areas of support and resistance. The recurring Yen pattern we’ve identified here was discovered using point and figure.

It suggests some long-term moves that could be over 300+ pips in total. The freefall pattern The pattern itself if is quite simple. It appears as if the sharpest JPY declines of 2013 are now becoming the largest JPY rallies of 2016.

Consider the climbing analogy, the latest price swings and resulting patterns are the climbing equivalent of forgetting to place anchors in the cliff face in preparation for the abseil back down. When we study the charts, there are simply no immediate signs of support or footholds that the pairs can target leaving them vulnerable to a potential freefall. As the same pattern is discussed over multiple pairs, we can analyse this into three sections: » Completed » In-progress » Emerging.

Completed Pattern - CADJPY Click to enlarge In a previous CADJPY article, we discussed the importance of the triple bottom located at the 90.00 level and the distinct lack of support below. This is the first example of the pattern of what might happen to some of these JPY pairs once key support levels are breached. No doubt the pressure of global oil prices on the Canadian dollar helped accelerate this move.

As we can see from the chart above, the CADJPY fell to our longer-term target of 80.50 before finding adequate support. The pattern almost resembles a window where price drops significantly to the previous level of demand. This pair may be consolidating now, especially looking at the most recent price action.

While the key level of 80.50 may continue to act as a strong support, resistance to the upside appears to be located at 84.00 and 86.50. In-progress pattern – USDJPY, GBPJPY USDJPY Click to enlarge We also discussed the latest USDJPY move in a recent article and currently we have a longer-term target price of 109.50. Clearly the break of the spread triple bottom at 116.50 was when this pattern activated and the price dropped from 116.50 down to 112.50 creating a 400 pip move.

The pair has since recovered but the main point to take note of is the recent change from an uptrend following a bullish support line (BS) to a downtrend following a bearish resistance line (BR). The level of 114.50 has established as short-term resistance and above here 116.50 may attempt to cap any bullish plays. GBPJPY Click to enlarge Similar to the USDJPY pair, we can see the pattern is in progress here with a downside target of 159.00 where a previous triple top is found.

The trigger point for this move was when the price broke through the spread double bottom at 165.00. Certainly one of the weakest currencies at the time of writing, the Pound has been one of the worst affected by the sudden surge in strength of the Yen. With the looming threat of a ‘Brexit’ (Britain exiting the Euro zone) towards the end of June this year, things may end up going from bad to worse for the GBPJPY pair.

Emerging pattern– EURJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY EURJPY Click to enlarge The last group, which we believe has the potential to move in similar fashion to the completed CADJPY pair, is sitting around key support levels which are beginning to look slightly exposed to the downside. The EURJPY has recently produced a sell signal after breaching the 125.50 level. If we look at the chart, there appears to be a glimmer of support around 124.00, but a longer-term target of 120.00 would be the more obvious choice.

The pair has had a rocky road on the way down so far perhaps this would be one of the most stable shifts down if the pattern continued. NZDJPY Click to enlarge The potential NZDJPY setup looks to be one of the cleanest examples of this freefall window pattern. During the past couple of weeks, price action has danced around the key support level 75.00 which is also a spread double bottom.

If this area fails to hold, the next longer-term support and initial target would be 69.00 at this stage. AUDJPY Click to enlarge Although closely related to the NZDJPY pair, the Australian counterpart AUDJPY doesn’t seem to belong to this group. Of course, the potential is still clearly visible on the chart between the levels of 80.00 and 75.00, but the Australian dollar may be more resilient based on recent events and previous price action.

In summary, the pattern itself is not unique. If you follow point and figure, you will notice similar setups on various trading products from time to time. What makes it interesting is that it appears to be happening on nearly all the Yen pairs simultaneously.

The completed pattern on the CADJPY went directly to the nearest support which was almost a thousand pips away. But do not be fooled by the process. Remember these are generally long-term set-ups and without any obvious signs of support, the market may gravitate towards round numbers with psychological importance or become less reliable in general.

There is also an alternate scenario whereby the Yen finds a bottom at current market levels and some of these key areas of support hold, perhaps providing a springboard for price action in the coming months. This also could present an opportunity to find some reasonable risk/reward trades. If you would like to keep up-to-date follow on Twitter or through the GO Markets technical analysis section.

The opinions and information conveyed in the GO Markets newsletter are the views of the author and are not designed to constitute advice. Trading Forex and CFD's is high risk. Adam Taylor | Senior Analyst Adam Taylor joined the GO Markets' team in early 2013 and has gone on to become a valued analyst on our Research and Trading team.

Adam's key strength lies in his technical analysis skills, perhaps honed over his time as a Champion Chess player for his native Scotland. While Adam's primary role is concentrated towards risk management for GO Markets, he's a regular contributor to our News and Analysis team, using the highly regarded but rarely used, point and figure method. Connect with Adam: Twitter | Email | Adam's posts

Post Fed Rate Hike March 15 th 2017 - The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) raised borrowing costs for the third time since the end of the financial crisis. An event so widely predicted that Bloomberg's World Interest Rate Probability was pegged at close to 100%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to increase the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 0.75-1.00%.

During the announcement, FOMC cited continued progress towards achieving maximum employment and inflation of 2% for raising rates. Jobs gains have been “solid” and household spending continues to grow “moderately.” They are predicting increasing rates a total of three times this year. President Trump has been vehemently against a strong dollar; we may see more of him pressing for a weaker dollar as he believes this will increase exports.

Below are the dates of the remaining FOMC meetings this year. May 3nd -- June 14th -- July 26th -- September 20th -- November 1st -- December 13th EURUSD We have seen a steady decline in the value of the Euro over the last several years, culminating in a 10 year low the first days of 2017. The weeks leading up to the official announcement experienced a small slump.

Once the announcement was made and the outcome was as expected we didn’t see much of an impact. Rather, the Euro strengthened on the results of the closely watched Dutch elections. The Populist Anti-EU Party of Freedom fared less well than polls had predicted.

All eyes are on the French Elections starting next month. Source: GO MarketsMT4 GBPUSD In the weeks leading to the announcement we saw the dollar pricing in the expected outcome of the Fed. Since the announcement increased bets that the Bank of England will start tightening policy as early as next year has seen Sterling slowly rising.

In the coming months, lingering Brexit and political uncertainty across Europe will keep Sterling saved on our Watchlists. Source: GO MarketsMT4 USDJPY The Yen has recovered substantially from the Summer 2016 lows. The weeks leading to the March 15 th announcement we saw the Japanese Yen stumbling to the lowest level since January 20 th.

There has been a gradual recovery since. It will be interesting to see the if the BOJ’s bonds (JGBs) purchase plan will have a lasting impact on the Yen. Source: GO MarketsMT4 USDCAD The Canadian dollar has recovered significantly since the USD/CAD reaching a 13 year high in January 2016.

Pre-announcement we saw a three-month low in Canadian dollar value. The Loonie has experienced a small bounce back since. Looking further, the price action in Oil is expected to play a considerable part for the sixth largest oil exporter.

Source: GO MarketsMT4 S&P500 The S&P500 continues it’s astronomic rise. The buildup to the FOMC meeting saw the index grow to records heights. For how long will the bulls last with continued whispers of an imminent correction or will we see 2500 this year?

Source: GoMarketsMT4

By Deepta Bolaky STOCK MARKETS After a stellar year for the stock markets, investors were entertaining the idea that equities will outperform in 2018 even though a correction above 15% was expected at some point. The U.S equity markets showed impressive strength in 2017 without experiencing the major pullbacks that often accompany rallies. The rally in the stock markets was mostly driven by global economic growth and impressive corporate profits.

However, in February 2018, the CBOE Volatility Index jumped to 37.32 and there was a massive sell-off in the equity markets. There was no fundamental driver behind the sharp fall, but the slide started as investors panicked over a number of issues: S economic growth and rising interest rates Trade policy and protectionism measures Geopolitical risks For the first half of the year, the EMEA region were in a sea of red while the S&P500, Nasdaq Composite and ASX200 stayed in the black backed by technological shares as investors were battling with two main challenges, namely trade uncertainties and interest rates. World Equity - % Change in 6 months (Before the implementation of tariffs) Each headline on trade tariffs were moving the stock markets, driving“panic selling” or the selling associated with the “risk of higher costs related to tariffs”.

During these past couple of months, trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks have been weighing on the overall market sentiment, but the Asian and European stocks took a greater hit. Chinese stocks have emerged as the biggest losers and have even moved into a bear market. As soon as tariffs and counter-tariffs became a reality, weeks of volatility in the stock markets receded.

Investors appear to have come to terms with the situation and risk sentiment has improved. As of writing, we can see that the stock markets are trending in positive territory. World Equity - % Change in 6 months (after the implementation of tariffs) Trade tensions in the market were unpredictable and even though investors are wary, its effects on the equity markets might not be long lasting.

In the third quarter, we may see investors trimming some of their equity exposure if trade tensions escalate. This trimming could also be encouraged by what we called the “summertime” on Wall Street. Stocks with stronger future growth projections like the technology shares will most likely stay in high demand in the second half of the year 2018.

However, performance of US stocks could be capped with the trade retaliatory responses from other countries. Aside from trade-related concerns, strong earnings expectations at the beginning of the third quarter may drive the equity markets higher. Short-term traders should probably stay cautious and watch for warning signs that could cause a sudden change in direction.

Trade tariff-affected sectors such as the automobile and commodities stocks, together with Chinese stocks, will likely stay under pressure as it is difficult for market participants to see an immediate end to the US-Sino trade tariffs. Investors should also keep an eye on the approach adopted by companies during the earnings season. Long-term traders can be more strategic and look for market dips for buying opportunities.

Interest rates will be a key driver to watch. An old stock market saying has resurfaced: “Bull markets do not die of old age, but are killed off by the US Federal Reserve” CURRENCY MARKETS The US dollar gained impressively in the second quarter against G10 currencies. This growth of the greenback can be attributed to the following drivers: The strength of the US economy compared to other developed markets; and A hawkish Fed compared to the other central banks.

Recent job reports were also strong enough for markets to anticipate another potential rate hike in September but without the acceleration in wage growth, a fourth hike looks less likely. The upcoming CPI figures will provide more insights on the path of interest rate. On the technical side, analysts see the strength in the US dollar since mid-April as a reversion.

When RSI approaches 40, it is normally used as “a buy signal” which has helped the greenback to bounce back. This particular situation is similar to the one that had occurred back in July 2014. Both the fundamental and technical sides provided support to the US dollar’s bullish momentum.

A hawkish Fed is calling for a higher dollar but it is important to note that the dollar is navigating through a difficult global environment. The drop in US Consumer Sentiment Index and Economic Optimism in June shows that consumer confidence has taken a hit despite a strong US economy. Unlike the bullish USD, the Euro has been under pressure due to the ongoing political turmoil in Europe that is threatening the unity of the European bloc.

The ECB’s dovish view, US trade tariffs on European cars, and slower growth have undermined the recovery of the EUR. British Pound is also facing the same fate with growing uncertainties around Brexit. Despite strong economic data and a hawkish BoE, the local currency is unable to sustain gains, due to Brexit jitters.

If Theresa May manages to push through the soft Brexit deal, the Pound might recover a semblance of normality. However, now that the implementation of the tariffs has become a reality, we have seen that investors are coming to terms with the situation and the “panic-selling” has scaled down. The wave of optimism is being felt across both the equity and currency markets.

For instance, the performance of the US dollar in the second quarter compared to the start of the third quarter is significantly opposite. Similarly, the Euro has seen a slight improvement and has appreciated against more pairs within the G10 currencies since we stepped into Q3. The British Pound also found some support at the beginning of this quarter compared to the previous one.

Recently, some ECB policy makers have expressed their views that they support an interest rate hike earlier than projected. In the UK, strong data is also supporting an August hike. This might help to bridge the gap between European central banks and the Fed.

Currently, both EUR and GBP pairs are finding short-term buyers as the risks on the political front are undermining their performance. As political tensions recede, we can see those currencies emerging slightly stronger against the US dollar. Investors might want to keep monitoring data to see if there is a pick in the Eurozone area and in the UK to help form buying positions.

From a global perspective, we can see that countries affected by tariffs are seeking unity among themselves against the US. Such retaliatory measures might bring more volatility in the markets in the coming weeks.

Oil on the Rise After reaching its lowest price for 15 years back in January, we have seen the oil prices rising in the recent months since June. The price recently reached a two-year high following a partial closure of the Keystone pipeline connecting Canada-US oilfields. With more upcoming meetings and geopolitical tensions rising in the Middle East, the future of the oil prices will depend on how the future events unfold.

OPEC Meeting The next Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is taking place on 30 th November in its headquarters in Vienna, Austria. It is expected that the pact on cutting output beyond March 2018 expiry will be extended, although Russia – a non-OPEC member and the second largest oil exporter in the world has sent mixed signals about its support for an extension on the cuts. “With the majority of OPEC members endorsing an extension, Russian support is the key risk,” Jon Rigby, head of oil research at UBS, wrote in a note. Last month, President Vladimir Putin indicated that Russia is backing extending the deal to the end of next year, but recent comments by officials and Russian media have created uncertainty since Putin’s comments.

British bank and financial services company Barclays expects a 6 to 9-month extension of an OPEC led deal to limit oil output during the meeting on 30 th November. The bank expects Brent to remain above $60 per barrel in the last quarter of this year and fall to $55 in 2018. “Whether or not the countries extend and the duration of the deal are not the relevant questions in our view. We believe the level of the cut is what really matters, and we assign a low likelihood to this detail being announced on November 30,” analysts at the bank said in a note. “If the meeting concludes as the market expects, prices could experience a short-term selloff, but the technicals and fundamentals will likely remain constructive,” the bank said.

Other concerns for oil prices are the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been involved in aggressive exchanges over the conflict in Yemen with both countries backing different sides. The Gulf region exports around 28 million barrels a day which is almost one third of a global production, therefore its important the relationships in the Middle East does not intensify further.

UKOUSD: Source: GO Markets MT4 USOUSD: Source: GO Markets MT4 See here for more information on Oil Commodity Trading.